We are certainly living in what, increasingly, appears to be an apocalyptic era. It is too bad that only at the 11th hour are the EU and NATO (and it looks as if Sweden and Finland are set to join NATO shortly) coming round to where so many of us stood in the first instance: he can't be allowed to succeed here, it is pay now or pay later. But in waiting to see what happened next, costly time and advantage were lost.
Hungary has always been a rogue card in the EU deck, far more so than Poland. It is doubly interesting because no one should be more cautious where Russia is concerned than Hungary, with its memories of 1956. It was reported yesterday that the Hungarian air force had to scramble when foreign military jets entered its airspace without permission briefly. It is a safe bet, I think, that those weren't NATO aircraft. Perhaps Orban will have a rethink. For Orban, the problem is that he has managed to make life economically better for his rural supporters. Risking that, I believe, is to risk a large swath of his support, and it's also a safe bet that those rural supporters don't give a tinker's curse what happens to Ukraine.
The potential geopolitical shifts here are interesting, to say the least. If Orban is trying to straddle a line between backing the wrong horse over the longer term (that would be Putin), but maintain his own off-ramp with continued membership in the EU and NATO which he can always slide back toward if Putin goes down, he may fail.
As for Hungary knowing about the invasion beforehand - well, I think they were not alone. I would venture to guess that the CIA, MI6, the Mossad, the French and German and Danish intelligence services . . . all knew what was coming down the pike.
As for Macron: he is jockeying for European power. He is a poseur, and if the choice in April had been between him and anyone but Le Pen, he might be out of they Elysee Palace by now. He has been looking to get ahead of the de facto German "First Among Equals" position in the EU for some time. Melenchon, the far-left candidate, was right behind Le Pen when the votes were counted, and one of Melechon's supporters described the elections in April as "a choice between the plague and cholera".
Everything seems to be poised on a knife-edge everywhere. The trick will be to find that sweet spot between morality and, as I like to put it, enlightened self-interest.
The end of May is when the first applications to NATO from Finland and Sweden are alleged to be submitted and announced. I am watching closely to see what Putin does in response if they do - it will be something of a bead on whether his bluff is called or not by these actions, as he has threatened both nations with "consequences" if they do join NATO.
I will refrain from comment on the SCOTUS shock yesterday, except to say that the leak could have ramifications that may come to count as "silver linings" to the Democrats at the mid-terms. But I know we have many Americans here on this site, and I feel I would be overstepping my lines if I use this site to comment on their politics. The leak in and of itself, as EL points out, marks what I believe, more broadly, a continued splintering within and without nation-states.
And another thank you to EL for the tireless work of keeping us not only informed, but organising the information so that we can absorb it thoughtfully. TC
We are certainly living in what, increasingly, appears to be an apocalyptic era. It is too bad that only at the 11th hour are the EU and NATO (and it looks as if Sweden and Finland are set to join NATO shortly) coming round to where so many of us stood in the first instance: he can't be allowed to succeed here, it is pay now or pay later. But in waiting to see what happened next, costly time and advantage were lost.
Hungary has always been a rogue card in the EU deck, far more so than Poland. It is doubly interesting because no one should be more cautious where Russia is concerned than Hungary, with its memories of 1956. It was reported yesterday that the Hungarian air force had to scramble when foreign military jets entered its airspace without permission briefly. It is a safe bet, I think, that those weren't NATO aircraft. Perhaps Orban will have a rethink. For Orban, the problem is that he has managed to make life economically better for his rural supporters. Risking that, I believe, is to risk a large swath of his support, and it's also a safe bet that those rural supporters don't give a tinker's curse what happens to Ukraine.
The potential geopolitical shifts here are interesting, to say the least. If Orban is trying to straddle a line between backing the wrong horse over the longer term (that would be Putin), but maintain his own off-ramp with continued membership in the EU and NATO which he can always slide back toward if Putin goes down, he may fail.
As for Hungary knowing about the invasion beforehand - well, I think they were not alone. I would venture to guess that the CIA, MI6, the Mossad, the French and German and Danish intelligence services . . . all knew what was coming down the pike.
As for Macron: he is jockeying for European power. He is a poseur, and if the choice in April had been between him and anyone but Le Pen, he might be out of they Elysee Palace by now. He has been looking to get ahead of the de facto German "First Among Equals" position in the EU for some time. Melenchon, the far-left candidate, was right behind Le Pen when the votes were counted, and one of Melechon's supporters described the elections in April as "a choice between the plague and cholera".
Everything seems to be poised on a knife-edge everywhere. The trick will be to find that sweet spot between morality and, as I like to put it, enlightened self-interest.
The end of May is when the first applications to NATO from Finland and Sweden are alleged to be submitted and announced. I am watching closely to see what Putin does in response if they do - it will be something of a bead on whether his bluff is called or not by these actions, as he has threatened both nations with "consequences" if they do join NATO.
I will refrain from comment on the SCOTUS shock yesterday, except to say that the leak could have ramifications that may come to count as "silver linings" to the Democrats at the mid-terms. But I know we have many Americans here on this site, and I feel I would be overstepping my lines if I use this site to comment on their politics. The leak in and of itself, as EL points out, marks what I believe, more broadly, a continued splintering within and without nation-states.
And another thank you to EL for the tireless work of keeping us not only informed, but organising the information so that we can absorb it thoughtfully. TC