Infrastructure In Lviv Attacked (again)
The Macron talks yield nothing, as Russia intensifies attacks in Ukraine
Yesterday, I read several accounts from those who had recently been evacuated from Mariupol. Many cannot believe the city has been destroyed, a woman who has lost everything has nowhere to go, and a young man when asked what he will do next without thinking said he was going to leave Ukraine.
We can talk about war crimes and punishing the offenders until the next century, but that does not erase the crimes, the scars, or bring back to life the dead. At this alleged height of humanity we should be focusing on stopping the crimes in the first place. When the invasion began on 24 February 2022 (the day in England Covid-19 restrictions were lifted), we all knew that war crimes would take place if the invasion was not halted within a week. We expected torture, kidnappings, executions, and rapes and the West took a laissez-faire attitude of, ‘if it happens then we’ll deal with it then...’, so basically they waited until it happened before they acted, knowing full well that all the above would take place and that people would die.
I am fully aware that we cannot save everyone, and that if people had the chance to leave Ukraine then they should have done so. Not everyone could, with elderly or sick people who were left behind and others to take care of them. However, the West could have foreseen this and have stepped in and helped.
What is more alarming is that Hungary, a member of the EU and NATO had prior knowledge of the invasion and chose not to act. While Ukraine is not a member of the EU or NATO they did have partnerships that were geared towards peace. Should war escalate, NATO and the EU must reconsider the position of Hungary, for a betrayal or leak of information could endanger to lives of millions.
We only have to look at SCOTUS in the US, where a leaked draft of the Roe v. Wade opinion was leaked to the media. It took a day for the government to validate that it was genuine, and has made the headlines around the world. It is only a matter of time before someone comes forward with the information Hungary had prior to the invasion, and the EU and NATO must act because they cannot have a traitor in their camp.
Day 70 (4 May)
The Mariupol evacuation attempts continue, but are hampered by mines being hidden in the rubble and extricating civilians from out of the bunkers safely.
Kharkiv is still being attacked as the second largest city in Ukraine. It is sporadic and bodies lie on the streets.
Lviv has been attacked, with missiles targeting power plants leaving parts of the city without electricity and water. I have always been concerned about the gang ho attitude that the media has about Lviv being safe—it has been attacked twice before already, and to read that journalists were outside having dinner and were shocked to hear sirens and had to abandon dinner to take cover simply beggars belief. Do they not know the Russians are after the entire country?
New areas of Ukraine have been hit by missiles and have been shelled. These include Zakarpattia Oblast (borders Poland, Slovakia which is less than 5 km away, Hungary and Romania), Kirovograd and Vinnytsia.
The railways have been targeted again (six were attacked overnight), damaging infrastructure and causing delays with the trains in Ukraine. This prevents people being evacuated, and the transportation of aid and goods as well as the target of weapons being transported to other areas of Ukraine.
The Pope has got himself in a spot of bother by saying that NATO ‘barking’ at Russia’s door may have been responsible for the invasion. This is a classic case of religion staying out of politics. No, the only body responsible for the invasion is the Russians who began an unprovoked attack on Ukraine. If only NATO had done something then we may not be in such a mess, but they didn’t. NATO did not bark at Russia’s door and aren’t even doing that now. Other media outlets are twisting the words to say that the Pope blames NATO for the invasion, which is what the Russians have claimed. I think it is far safer for the Pope to pray silently and shut up before he causes more trouble.
The Macron/Putin talks that lasted 2 hours and 10 minutes yielded nothing new of course. It is simply Macron wanting to look like the big man again, but deeds not words matter in a war against Russia. Macron has stated that Russia must live up to their responsibilities of being in the Security Council. What a foolish man the French have elected for it is clear to see that Russia is using their position in the Security Council to prevent the UN from stopping them carrying out the invasion (by use of the veto).
The world has been highly critical of Macron, where I have yet to find a single positive comment on the continued talks between Macron and Putin where most see them as waste of time and pointless. Apparently, Macron merely mentioned the possibility of a food shortage in the world, where I think killing people and the threat of destroying the UK are far more important. Putin apparently claimed that the West were ignoring war crimes committed by Ukraine, and that the West must stop supplying weapons to Ukraine.
Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, is to be disconnected from the SWIFT bank transfer system as well as two other banks (Credit Bank of Moscow and the Russian Agricultural Bank) . This is a big step as it will disrupt trading that companies still have with Russia. More sanctions are to be announced which are said to include the head of the Russian Orthodox Church.
As we approach the third month of the invasion, the reality of the sanctions are hitting EU countries who have been reliant on Russia for energy supplies. While many wish to support Ukraine in sanction, that may leave them without gas supplies which they need. That is what Russia is banking on as negotiation/blackmail tactic. Poland and Bulgaria have already been cut off, and other countries expect the same. The EU has said it will ban oil from Russia but not gas as yet. Hungary is opposed to any energy embargoes against Russia. Hungary and Slovakia have until the end of 2023 to comply with the embargo.
Zelenskyy has stated that Ukraine will not concede any territory to Russia and seeks to restore Crimea and other occupied regions. Zelenskyy only came into power in 2019, a few months before the Covid-19 pandemic and did not have the opportunity to address the issue.
It has been revealed that approximately 36 Russian tycoons met with Putin on the day of the invasion and had moved their assets that day. There are likely to have been others that were informed by other means which is why sanctions will not and have not worked. Everyone knows that sanctions were expected and is the only power that the UN and the EU have against Russia without declaring war.
Russian state television showed a simulation of how Russia could destroy the UK because it is an island. That is undoubtedly Russia threatening the UK in response to the announcement of further aid being sent to Ukraine.
Sergei Lavrov (the Foreign Minister) claimed that Israel was supporting neo-Nazis in Ukraine and claimed that Hitler was part Jewish, which insulted Israel. In response, Israel is now supplying Ukraine with weapons. Russia is escalating the war themselves with their propaganda.
Belarus are holding military drills which suggest that their troops may join Russian ones. Reports that missiles into Ukraine were launched from Belarus continue, as well as the alleged plot to shoot down a plane from Belarus and to blame it on Ukraine.
The EU are considering sending military aid to support Moldova with the recent Transnistria attacks amid concerns that the conflict will spread to the region.
We are certainly living in what, increasingly, appears to be an apocalyptic era. It is too bad that only at the 11th hour are the EU and NATO (and it looks as if Sweden and Finland are set to join NATO shortly) coming round to where so many of us stood in the first instance: he can't be allowed to succeed here, it is pay now or pay later. But in waiting to see what happened next, costly time and advantage were lost.
Hungary has always been a rogue card in the EU deck, far more so than Poland. It is doubly interesting because no one should be more cautious where Russia is concerned than Hungary, with its memories of 1956. It was reported yesterday that the Hungarian air force had to scramble when foreign military jets entered its airspace without permission briefly. It is a safe bet, I think, that those weren't NATO aircraft. Perhaps Orban will have a rethink. For Orban, the problem is that he has managed to make life economically better for his rural supporters. Risking that, I believe, is to risk a large swath of his support, and it's also a safe bet that those rural supporters don't give a tinker's curse what happens to Ukraine.
The potential geopolitical shifts here are interesting, to say the least. If Orban is trying to straddle a line between backing the wrong horse over the longer term (that would be Putin), but maintain his own off-ramp with continued membership in the EU and NATO which he can always slide back toward if Putin goes down, he may fail.
As for Hungary knowing about the invasion beforehand - well, I think they were not alone. I would venture to guess that the CIA, MI6, the Mossad, the French and German and Danish intelligence services . . . all knew what was coming down the pike.
As for Macron: he is jockeying for European power. He is a poseur, and if the choice in April had been between him and anyone but Le Pen, he might be out of they Elysee Palace by now. He has been looking to get ahead of the de facto German "First Among Equals" position in the EU for some time. Melenchon, the far-left candidate, was right behind Le Pen when the votes were counted, and one of Melechon's supporters described the elections in April as "a choice between the plague and cholera".
Everything seems to be poised on a knife-edge everywhere. The trick will be to find that sweet spot between morality and, as I like to put it, enlightened self-interest.
The end of May is when the first applications to NATO from Finland and Sweden are alleged to be submitted and announced. I am watching closely to see what Putin does in response if they do - it will be something of a bead on whether his bluff is called or not by these actions, as he has threatened both nations with "consequences" if they do join NATO.
I will refrain from comment on the SCOTUS shock yesterday, except to say that the leak could have ramifications that may come to count as "silver linings" to the Democrats at the mid-terms. But I know we have many Americans here on this site, and I feel I would be overstepping my lines if I use this site to comment on their politics. The leak in and of itself, as EL points out, marks what I believe, more broadly, a continued splintering within and without nation-states.
And another thank you to EL for the tireless work of keeping us not only informed, but organising the information so that we can absorb it thoughtfully. TC