The latest news is that the UN Secretary General will be travelling to Russia and Ukraine to discuss a peace deal. No one expects much because the UN has failed miserably already as Russia is hostile towards the UN and has not responded to their communications for dialogue. In cases with dictators who have deceived their own people and who have reneged on international agreements, diplomatic talks are merely a process for appearances sake. The League of Nations failed to deal with Hitler and we all know how that turned out.
The fate of Mariupol is still fragile as we hear some accounts of what life was like being trapped in Mariupol from some of those lucky enough to be evacuated. They said the Russians were killing people randomly, and that they did provide aid, but it wasn’t really aid at all. One bottle of water for 10 people, a loaf of bread for 40 people is not aid at all—it was just bread and water for two months. I hope that when the world leaders hear these stories they will act, and realise that they had made an error of judgment in failing to act sooner. We all know that the Russians have been killing civilians from bodies found, and eye witness accounts, yet we must still observe and shake our heads while the world leaders carry on ‘discussing’. Facta, non verba — deeds not words matter when lives are at stake, and while discussions on what to do are essential, they need to be backed up with action. Weapons that were promised by other countries are finally being delivered, but will Russia consider that escalation and use it as an excuse to attack the countries that have assisted Ukraine?
The rest of the world is beginning to feel the effects of the war, as sunflower oil is being rationed in supermarkets. If you are fortunate to find any sunflower oil on the shelves they are being limited to 2-3 per person. I saw people stocking up on the 3L and 5L bottles, and the price has gone up of course. Effects such as these and sanctions always take at least 3 months before they affect the masses, similar to the rationing of pasta, canned goods, and toilet roll less than 2 years ago when most of the world was on lockdown from Covid-19.
Unless people have ties or know people in Russia or Ukraine, how invested are they in the war? Do they wake up and shake their head in disbelief that such atrocities are happenings as they watch the news, curse Putin, and then carry on with their day? The older generation are more cautious, and if they had lived through rationing they will be a little more prepared than other generations who may believe that the UN, EU, and NATO will ‘sort this out’ and life won’t change for them.
There are those who have been organised donations and supplies to be sent to Ukraine, who have offered to give a refugee a home, and others who are driving over to Poland to bring back family and friends who are trapped in Ukraine. The majority of people only take notice when war affects their everyday life, and slowly this is happening. The cooking oil shortage is just the start, and the fuel crisis will be the next issue. As summer approaches, most households will use less energy but when winter hits, what then? We already know that utility bills are set to increase, and so people who are wise are bracing themselves for the knock on effects of the Russian invasion.
Some believe that Putin will stop at Donbas, Crimea, and the south coast, but we know that Kyiv is, and always will be a target. If a spoilt child gets away with an evil act then they will continue and get bolder in their actions. The same can be said of a dictator who is allowed (through appeasement) to get what they want through bullying, lethal force, and the breaking of the rules by creating and interpreting their own. That is why the UN idea of a peace deal is insufficient and inadequate, and we should remember that the League of Nations was to blame for enabling the Second World War. We could only see that after the fact, but the failure of the alliance enabled Hitler to plan and build up his armies for war, and yet several world leaders felt that diplomatic talks and a treaty would be enough to stop him. Their error cost the lives of millions and wiped out families and a generation.
The UN cannot be allowed to make the same mistake, but I fear that they will for today those in positions of power are too concerned about their careers and their public profiles. The Munich Agreement (September 1938) was seen as a betrayal by the British and French, by the Czechoslovakians, as they had signed away part of the land without their permission in exchange for Hitler promising not to invade Poland or any other countries. The idea was to prevent a war through appeasement, but all it did was give Hitler the green light to carry out his plan as he saw the weakness of others who were willing to concede. Should anything similar happen in Ukraine, then it will only be a matter of time before Russia targets another state—Moldova, Georgia, Finland, and as we know scraps of paper and treaties mean nothing when Russia interprets things in their own way.
Day 59 (23 April)
Details emerge that Antonio Gutteres, the UN Secretary General is to meet with Putin in Moscow, and to have a working lunch with the Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday. Eating or drinking with the Russians didn’t bode well with many from past experience.
The UN delegation will then travel to Kyiv to meet Zelenskyy and the Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. However, many think that he should go to Mariupol if it is still standing and personally intervene with the humanitarian corridors that are necessary.
Moldova is concerned regarding comments that suggest Russia will seek to invade the country if Mariupol and Odesa are occupied. This isn’t actually news at all, but when Zelenskyy and his ministers repeated it, the reality seems too close to put on the back burner. Both Moldova and Georgia are aware that they are vulnerable states given their proximity to Russia and Ukraine, and that both have regions that Russia has annexed. In Moldova, the Transnistria region is a breakaway area that is pro-Russian, and in Georgia, South Ossetia has been annexed by Russia, similar to how Crimea was annexed in Ukraine.
Russia has been trying to block Ukrainian media in Ukraine and to replace it with Russian channels by switching and jamming channels and transmitters. In occupied areas they have been threatening media outlets and journalists to write pro-Russian reports
Evgeny Rylov, a Russian Olympic swimming champion has been suspended for 9 months by Fina for attending a pro-Putin rally. He is banned until January 2023.
The rift among the Visegrad 4 continues as Slovakia and Poland push for further sanctions against Russia, where Hungary has refused to do so, or to offer assistance in terms of supplying weapons. The Czech Republic have donated tanks and have offered to repair damaged equipment in contrast to Hungary who do not appear to be upholding the values of the alliance.
A US ambassador to the OSCE has claimed that chemical weapons may have been used in Mariupol. If this can be proven, it gives the US and UK leverage to intervene (as per Budapest Memorandum).
The cooking oil crisis begins as rationing in stores has been implemented. As sunflower oil becomes scarce (as it comes from Ukraine ), stores are limiting 2-3 items per person. Prices have also increased, and manufacturers have had to adapt their cooking processes for items such as crisps.
An evacuation in Mariupol takes place after 2 months.
Odesa, as expected has been attacked and there are deaths and casualties.
Australia, like other democratic countries, are (so it would seem) "too late" and now the Defence Minister, Dutton is asserting that for peace we need to prepare for war because China is militarily on the move and has signed an agreement with the Solomon Islands. Your "facta, non verba" -"deeds not words matter" will be an expression that could resonate worldwide, not just to Putin's invasion of the Ukraine.
I've just seen a video of Putin, looking unsteady and distracted, as he attended an Orthodox Easter Midnight Mass, celebrated by the Russian Orthodox leader who supports him. All of which dashes my hopes that by now he would have been denounced as the Satan he is.