The Ukraine Recovery Conference Is Held In Lugano, Switzerland
Luhansk has fallen as the Russian continue to occupy Donetsk
The last few days have tested the resolve of various countries and to show if they support Ukraine or not. Today is Independence Day in the USA, where many countries have sent messages to the people of the USA including Ukraine. Russia has not, declaring that congratulations are not appropriate as the country is carrying out ‘unfriendly policies’.
The Ukraine Recovery Conference is being held to discuss how to rebuild the infrastructure of Ukraine, and how to fund it. This will probably take several generations and will require assistance from many countries, but also to invest in Ukraine so that it rebuild itself.
Heavy weapons are arriving into Ukraine, but we are in the fifth month of the invasion where thousands have already died. Many had hoped that this might have been a quick invasion like Crimea and that they would not have to get involved. However, the Ukrainians fought back and now they must fight on so that those who lost their lives did so for freedom and democracy.
Day 131 (4 July)
The new Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese visited Ukraine on Sunday (3 July) and pledged $100 million in funding and support until the war is won.
The Prime Minister of Sweden, Magdalena Andersson visited Kyiv, and Bucha today.
The attack on Donetsk continues as Slovyansk and other towns and cities are being heavily shelled by the Russians. This is the main target after the Russians have claimed Luhansk has been liberated from the ‘nationalists’ and that they plan to liberate Donetsk. Putin has awarded ‘Hero of Russia’ titles to two generals involved in the occupation of Luhansk.
Belarus denies it is participating in the war and claims it is only providing Russia with logistical support. That’s the same as other countries offering logical support to Ukraine, except Belarus is letting Russia launch missiles into Ukraine from the country. I would say that is direct participation if you allow a country to fire a weapon into another country.
Russia is accused to torturing a staff member at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant to death, where Andrei Honcharuk was beaten by the Russians for refusing to dive into a pool. He fell into a coma and died as a result of the beatings.
Crimea is being used as a base for the Russians to export stolen grain (which apparently is being harvested in Mariupol) and reports claim that citizens in Crimea will be forced to fight for the Russian army, thus fight against Ukrainians.
Slovakia will donate MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine and other heavy weapons. Details will not be released fro security reasons.
Turkey has detained the Zhibek Zholy (Russian vessel) that contains 7,000 tonnes of stolen grain. Whether Turkey would have done this without Ukraine and NATO breathing down their necks, who knows? However, NATO expected all their members to abide by their directives and Turkey could not be seen to ignore this expectation, especially as they have demanded Sweden and Finland extradite a number of suspected terrorists.
The UK is hosting the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Lugano, Switzerland (4-5 July). It is estimated that $750 billion will be needed to rebuild Ukraine after the war. This has been likened to the Marshall Plan after World War II, except that the war in Ukraine is only escalating with more regions being occupied by the Russians.
There is an idea that this should be funded by using the confiscated assets of Russian oligarchs and other Russian assets.
Intelligence reports claim that Russian special forces are entering Belarus as civilians in disguise, and are preparing to cross the border into Ukraine, from Minsk, Gomel, and Brest. While Belarus claims they are not planning to be active in the invasion, Putin did state in February 2022 that he would not invade Ukraine and we know how that turned out.
Yulia Tymoshenko, a former Prime Minister of Ukraine has reiterated that Russia must be defeated and any appeasement deal would simply be allowing Putin to plan for another invasion. She also recommends vulnerable states such as Georgia, and Moldova to build strong defences to protect themselves.
A peace agreement is an illusion, the only way out is a victory in battle.
The Ukrainian flag has been hoisted on Snake Island again as a symbol of Ukrainian determination. While reclaiming occupied regions will take time, Snake Island is important as it means that the Russians can be defeated.
The issue as to whether Russia will hold Germany hostage over gas supplies continues. The concerns are that by winter, Russia may limit the supply of gas as a means to blackmail Germany who are dependent on Russia for a third of their supply. Scholz will be pressured by the domestic electorate to ensure there is no shortage of gas. This accounts for the appeasement speeches Scholz makes, because he wishes to keep Russia ‘happy’ but also needs to fulfil their commitments to NATO and the EU.
Reports claims that US special forces veterans are training Ukrainians soldiers and helping them plan combat missions. While the Pentagon has advised against such actions, as they are veterans they are free to act as civilians. As they were also special forces, they have skills that can protect them and have probably been in similar situations before.
Putin has given the order (via Defence Minister Sergei Shogu) to continue with the special military operation. Russia will not stop unless they are stopped.
Humanity may have made many strides socially, dragged along behind technological and medical advances (in my opinion) that made such adaptations inevitable, but little has changed in the human psyche.
The capacity for denial to avoid risk, despite history that provides evidence that the denial is fruitless in the longer term, never seems to atrophy, does it? TC
It is good to know that NATO is having some impact, especially since we know Turkey is sympathetic to Russia's military operation. Ukrainians and their President will go down in history as defenders of freedom and democracy. I saw the photo of Snake Island and bet Putin regrets his 'act of goodwill' by surrendering it now that the Ukrainians have launched the Ukrainian flag and marking it as a symbol of their determination.