The Suspension Of The Grain Deal

The Russian missile attacks increase as expected

Day 249 (30 October)

When Russia declared that they were suspending their participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, it came as no surprise as they had been delaying the passage of exports for the past several weeks, moaning that they wanted to renegotiate the agreement. Turkey has been talking to Ukraine, and they have agreed to continue the exports, while the UN and other world leaders make statements on social media more or less begging Russia to change their mind. It's all rather ridiculous because this is exactly what Russia wanted, to blackmail others into doing what they wanted.

What I find hypocritical is that the UN suddenly reacts when it affects their own programs, and ignored Zelenskyy's pleas for help when he declared that Russia was holding up at least 150 vessels over the past few weeks deliberately. It was obvious that Russia was going to suspend their participation in the agreement, and the Sevastopol incident is merely being used as an excuse. Some may I ask why Ukraine, if it was Ukraine at all attacked the Russian warships while grain was still being exported, and that is because the missiles that were attacking Ukraine, and cutting off the energy supplies and water supplies, originated from warships in the Black Sea. Therefore, the warships in the Black Sea are legitimate military targets because they are attacking Ukraine. One warship was damaged in Sevastopol, but Russia has made no official announcement except that they accuse Ukraine and the UK for the attacks.

In other news, Baykar in in Turkey are developing air-to-air missiles, which would be deployed on the Bayraktar drones which are being used in Ukraine. This would help to counter the drones before they reached their targets.

Ukrainian intelligence has reported that Iran has delivered further missiles to Russia, including the Fateh – 110 and Zolfaghar short-range ballistic missiles, complete with an IRGC team of experts to help launch them. Russia effectively is using Iranian and Belarusian military to help them attack Ukraine.

Day 250 (31 October)

Monday morning, and Ukraine sent emergency alerts to everybody across the country asking them to remain in shelters for their own safety. Further missile attacks as expected, damaged power plants and water supplies. There are power outages, no water supplies, and places that do have power have restricted usage.

Public power banks allow people to charge their devices, and people queue patiently for water. The Ukrainians understand the sacrifices being made for their liberty and freedom. Around 80% of Kyiv was without water as a result of additional Russian attacks by cruise missiles.

Rural places have probably been harder hit as repairing their infrastructure is more difficult.

The missile strikes have crossed over the border into Moldova, violating international humanitarian law. So basically, Russia has attacked another state unprovoked. Moldova has responded by expelling a Russian diplomat. Moldova has been another Russian target, and the fact that they didn't seem to care that the missiles would land in Moldova indicates that they are also seeking to occupy Moldova at some point.

In addition, Moldova is not in the EU or NATO, it has a Russian speaking population and shares a border with Ukraine. Since the beginning of the invasion, Moldova has always been seen as vulnerable and now the first Russian missile has landed in a Moldovan village. In addition, there is corruption in Moldova perpetrated by the Russians, with an ex president who is being paid by the Russians to supply information, and of course there are some Russian spies in the country with a purpose to influence the political landscape favourable to the Russians.

The UN, Turkey, and Ukraine continue with the grain initiative and might consider Turkish vessels to escort Ukrainian vessels out of port. What Russia has opted to do is to target the tugboats and the grain barges to get around the clause that the UN has stated that the parties should not target the actual vessels transporting grain.

It is believed that two crew members on a tugboat have been killed already. There should be more outrage, because Russia is clearly flouting the rules and targeting civilians.

The Russians have retaliated by claiming that they will nationalise properties in Crimea that is associated with Kyiv. This includes a shipbuilding plant called Zaliv, and a cement plant, where proxies will seek to illegally acquire and take over the properties.

By the end of the day, 40% of Kyiv still did not have water and more than quarter of a million had no power either. There are no images of the damage to the infrastructure for security purposes, so that the Russians do not know where to target. In other areas, missiles hit call Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Lviv. Russia has stated that the aim was to create, ‘chaos and panic when it's very cold and dark,’ aimed at the civilians of Ukraine. Therefore, the Russian attacks are deliberately aimed at causing suffering and, yet the UN still seem to do nothing except bang on about their grain.

The war has escalated whether the world leaders wish to admit it or not. It was a matter of time before a missile landed in another country that borders Ukraine, and now Moldova has been attacked. If it had been a NATO member, then NATO troops would have been on the scene, and so was it carelessness by the Russians, or was it a taste of what Moldova should expect next? Moldova already has Russian proxies installed in the state, and Transnistria is under Russian military control already. It is clear that Russia is seeking a quick win with Moldova.