A brave staff member at Russian state television, Channel 1, ran on set and held up a placard to tell the Russians they were being lied to. Marina Ovsyannikova risked her life to tell the truth, and as expected has been detained by the government. The newsreader brushed it off as a prank. She had been missing for more than 12 hours where her lawyers had not been able to locate her, thus depriving her of her legal rights as she was interrogated for 14 hours. It is expected that she will face a speedy trial as a deterrent in Moscow and is being fined 30,000 roubles for releasing an anti-war video. Many expected the punishment to be harsher, but the fact that this is such a public arrest, the Russians don’t want to draw too much attention to it.
https://www.facebook.com/euronews/videos/868860183950295
She later released a pre-recorded message via a human rights group, and encouraged Russians to defy the war:
"What is happening in Ukraine is a crime. And Russia is the aggressor here. And responsibility for this aggression rests on the conscience of a single man: Vladimir Putin. My father is Ukrainian. My mother is Russian. And they’ve never been enemies. And this necklace I’m wearing is a symbol of that fact that Russia must immediately end this fratricidal war. And our fraternal peoples will still be able to make peace. Unfortunately, I’ve spent many of the last few years working for Channel One, doing Kremlin propaganda, and I’m deeply ashamed of this. Ashamed that I allowed lies to come from the TV screen. Ashamed that I allowed the zombification of Russian people. We were silent in 2014 when all this had just started."
We just silently watched this anti-human regime at work. And now the whole world has turned its back on us. And the next 10 generations won’t wash away the stain of this fratricidal war. We Russians are thinking and intelligent people. It’s in our power alone to stop all this madness. Go protest. Don’t be afraid of anything. They can’t lock us all away."
More talks resume today, with Zelenskyy addressing the Canadian Parliament and where the Prime Ministers of neighbouring countries (Poland, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic) will visit Kyiv in an act of solidarity. The reality of the situation is that the death toll increases, more cities are being destroyed, sanctions are having a limited effect, and we should look at the reasons why Russia should consider a ceasefire.
Ukraine needs a ceasefire because of all the deaths, and destruction that will take decades to repair, but what do the Russians gain from a ceasefire? Putin doesn’t care about the lives of the Russian soldiers as they are expendable, and a ceasefire would only save their lives. Sanctions won’t be lifted immediately, and as they only affect the civilians that is of little interest to Putin either. If all that Ukraine can offer in a ceasefire is the lives of the Russian soldiers that Putin doesn’t care about, then it is hard to see how negotiations would be successful. Zelenskyy cannot concede any of the recently occupied cities for that would be a betrayal, but Russia will want something of value in return to halt the invasion.
I don’t think asking Russian soldiers to surrender will stop the invasion, for Putin will send in more troops. The brainwashed Russians won’t budge, and the ones who don’t wish to fight know that if they surrender, that they will be branded traitors and can never return to Russia, and may be imprisoned. Other than that, the Russians may harm members of their family in retaliation, so, Russian soldiers surrendering has potential harmful consequences.
The Russians have not been bombed, or lost their homes, and only the ones who dare to speak out have been detained by the authorities. Some have chosen to leave Russia, but there has been no enforced evacuation where those in Ukraine have no choice but to leave their homes that have been destroyed.
There is a lot of talk about who is winning, but no one can ever be accurate in those statistics until after the conflict, but they are morale boosters for the armies concerned—they think it will be over soon so that they can go home.
It has been a while since I have analyzed a strategic war map, and this is one in real-time, therefore, it is harder to analyse. What is Putin’s plan and what can we see from the map?
The Russians naturally invaded cities that bordered Russia, and the southern cities where the annexed Crimea lies, and the unofficial eastern separatists states of Donetsk and Luhansk (Donbas).
They have taken control of the Black Sea, which prevents any possible naval attack.
In the North, Belarus is a Russian client state and is only 65 km away from Kyiv. This means should Russia need troops from the north to descend on Kyiv, Belarus may assist. Right now it seems they are holding back so that the West do not impose sanctions against them.
By blocking the south, and the sea, no one can enter Ukraine, and the north which sandwiches the Ukrainians and pushes them so there are no clear exits from the north or south as the Russian have controlled them both.
This leaves the landlocked borders with Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania which are all NATO members, and Moldova that isn’t. Thus, these are the only countries where aid can be transported through, and all the countries are struggling to handle the refugees that have fled from Ukraine. This makes them all targets when/if the Russian troops decide to attack western Ukraine. However, if they take Kyiv, and take over the government buildings and depose Zelenskyy then they won’t need to ‘take’ the west.
That is why the attacks are focused on the north (as it is near Kyiv and the client state of Belarus) and the south, because Russia had troops there and by blocking the sea it prevents an escape or any aid from arriving. Taking Kyiv appears to have always been the plan, as that is the capital and where the government buildings are.
Day 20 (15 March)
Marina Ovsyannikova, a member of staff for Channel 1 on a Russian state television channel holds up a placard to tell the Russians that they are being lied to. The sign said, “No war, stop the war, don’t believe the propaganda. They are lying to you here.’
The ICJ announced they will deliver their order on the accusation that Russian has made false justifications for invading Ukraine on 16 March. The case was initiated by Ukraine.
Russian censorship continues as people are fined and arrested for organising anti-war protests.
Polish, Czech, and Slovenian Prime Ministers will visit Kyiv today, via train in a show unity for EU and Europe. They will offer aid, but reiterate that they will not engage directly in the war.
Zelenskyy calls for the Russians to ceasefire and to surrender and guarantees that they will be treated well, appealing to them not to sacrifice their lives.
There are more bombings and some evacuations have taken place, but Kyiv is now the main target. A 36 hour curfew is in place.
Talks between Ukraine and Russia continue, but there have not been direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin yet.
Germany has been said to be offering real military aid to Ukraine, as Zelenskyy has stated the arms that other states have provided last barely a day.
The UK and EU follow suit with the US and impose further sanctions on luxury goods such as vodka.
Zelenskyy addressed European leaders in London, stating that he was relying on their assistance as individual states rather than NATO. He has called for tougher sanctions—all Russian sea vessels to be banned from all ports, and firms who still do business with Russia should called out, and there should be a complete trade embargo to isolate Russia rather than adding sanctions each week.
The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) consists of armed forces from the UK, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, Estonia, Finland, and Denmark that respond to a crisis anywhere in the world, participated in the above call. Some members of NATO are sitting on the fence over Putin, and that is an issue if NATO is to evolve and be an alliance that can act decisively and be proactive.
NATO’s General Secretary (Jens Stoltenberg) stated that NATO will not intervene unless one of the 30 member countries are attacked. That theoretically means that Russia can attack the borders of the countries that border Ukraine, and NATO won’t engage, nor will they intervene if convoys that supply arms are attacked. He did state that NATO will step up their defences in the east in the long term. Empty words, for there may not be much left to defend at this rate.
Russia has imposed sanctions on Biden, Antony Blinken (Secretary of State), William Burns (CIA Chief), Lloyd Austin (Secretary of Defense) and Jake Sullivan (National Security Advisor).
Biden has been banned from entering Russia as has Justin Trudeau. Other senior officials join the blacklist.
Russian missiles have destroyed a runway at an airport in eastern Ukraine. Dnipro was hit and the terminal was also damaged. Russia appears to be taking out all means of transport, airports, seaports, trains, and roads.
At least two news presenters have left Russian state television channels, fearing that they would not be allowed to leave in the near future.
There is a conflict in Europe on how to handle the crisis—those closer to Ukraine want swift action as they are vulnerable to attack, while other countries prefer a step-by-step approach, hoping that the financial sanctions will work while Ukrainians die, and their homes and cities are destroyed.
Biden is to meet NATO and EU leaders on 24 March, in Brussels to discuss the Ukraine crisis, security, defence, and ongoing international relations.
Zelenskyy addresses the Canadian MPs. Canada has a large population of Ukrainians (over a million), therefore, it will be an important address for the government and for fellow Ukrainians. He calls for a no-fly zone again, but this is rejected by the Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, who stated that they did not wish to ‘trigger(ing) an international conflict’
Following the meeting with European leaders in London, Zelenskyy stated that NATO membership appeared to be closed to Ukraine. He knows he cannot depend on NATO, and if they concede to Putin and guarantee that Ukraine can never be a member then that defeats the purpose and principles of the NATO alliance. Zelenskyy seems to suggest that he has been told NATO membership is not possible, and that he must rely on individual states foe help. Canada has proved to be a friend in need, and he continues that in a time of crisis you find out who your real friends are.
Pharmaceutical companies have suspended some of their operations in Russia. These include Bristol-Myers, Sanofi, Pfizer, Bayer, and Novartis.
Pierre Zakrzewski, a war photographer was killed today in Kyiv. Another reporter, Benjamin Hall was injured and is in hospital.
There are reports that three former British special forces soldiers were killed in the missile attack at Yavoriv.
Zelenskyy: Receiving standing ovation. He looks exhausted, but big smiles. Pelosi declaring the US respect and admiration for Zelenskyy. No thought about giving up. Destiny of his country is being decided. Fight for their freedom and to choose their futures. Reminding them of Pearl Harbor and 9/11, when we were attacked from the air. Asking again for no-fly zone. Offers alternative, aircraft to help them defend, air defense systems. Asking all countries to leave Russian market because it's "filled with our blood." Close all Russian ports. Need newer tools that respond quicker. Talking about a global assistance committee that can respond quicker to global issues, conflicts, vaccines, etc. Showing video of what's happening, very graphic. Before and after pics. Video ends with "close the sky over Ukraine." Reminds of the over 100 children who have been lost and questions if life is worth that. Another standing ovation as he waves goodbye.
Congress here preparing to hear from Zelenskyy shortly. Meanwhile our Sec of Defense, Austin, meeting with NATO military chiefs in Brussels, to discuss boosting Ukraine defense.