Lviv~ Another Target

Is this another warning sign sent to NATO?

When people look back at this war, the question many will ask is who was to blame for the deaths of Ukrainian civilians. The obvious answer is the Russians, as it is they who initiated the invasion and fired the shots and who bombed the cities. Others are now blaming Zelenskyy, for the West are pushing him into a corner to agree to a ceasefire and to give up their democracy for neutrality, and to allow some occupied areas to be recognised as part of the Russian Federation. If Zelenskyy gives in then he will look as if he has betrayed the lives of the dead and people will blame him for their deaths, and others for losing their homes and being force to become refugees. Many will say, if that was the plan, then why didn’t he do it earlier and save lives? Perhaps it is because his calls for aid went unanswered and he had no choice if he does concede?

Without the assistance of the West, Ukraine does not have the military supplies to defend itself. We can look at the major players in this crisis, and while many are politicians who are accustomed to making deals and delivering speeches designed to manipulate and persuade, not all are war politicians. How many are trained and qualified to handle war situations? They have advisors, but arrogant leaders will not always listen to advice.

Zelenskyy was ill-prepared for his role through no fault of his own and is doing his best with what he has. I have been reading the opinions and comments from experts on Russian history and warfare, who have been analyzing events longer than I have been alive, and who I believe have a better handle on this situation than the politicians, some who have only been in office for a few years.

I’m still astonished that people are surprised that Lviv was attacked again, and that the Russians have surrounded another city (Chernihiv) after they declared they were focusing on the Donbas region. Why, oh why can’t people see that the Russians will lie and give out false information?

It does seem as if the West are forcing Zelenskyy and the Ukrainians to agree to a ceasefire by giving up some of their democratic rights and some territories that Russia wishes to occupy. The problem is that we know that this is what Putin wants, and while Macron and co may think that this is a good diplomatic solution, what stops Putin mounting another invasion or to use the Donbas region as a corridor to invade other former Soviet states?

Why would Putin pack up his troops and leave without getting what he wants? He has planned this for decades, and if he withdraws his troops it would only be a matter of time before he makes another attempt at invading Ukraine or another state to reunite the USSR. I do not believe that Putin wants a ceasefire or peace deal, and will continue attacking Ukraine. No one wants World War III, but if Ukraine is split N/S or E/W, then that is not ideal either. Maybe Zelenskyy will agree not to join NATO after they have been granted EU membership, because let us face the fact that NATO is pretty useless and weak as evidenced by how they have tackled this crisis? How will Ukrainians view this? Most will see this as Putin winning, and that it is a matter of time before he annexes further territories. Is this what they are fighting for—a compromise that benefits Russia and not Ukraine?

As this crisis continues, the West are controlling the situation by choosing what aid to offer, and by pushing Ukraine to accept a ceasefire deal. Do the West have the right to decide the future of Ukraine, and how the country should be governed? Shouldn’t Ukrainians have the right to have the same democratic rights as those in the UK, France, and the US? How would the citizens of those countries feel if another country was making decisions on their democratic rights?

Are the Russians sending more warning signs to NATO by attacking cities near the Polish border? Now that NATO is reinforcing their defence line along the Eastern Bloc, will that deter Putin? Somehow I doubt it. The city of Mariupol has been destroyed and we can wonder what could have been done to prevent it, but the truth is that this war began in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea. The Ukrainian government at the time was pro-Russian, and democracy in Ukraine was slow to develop. The West did see the Russian threat but failed to be proactive in deterring any further attacks, and that is where we are now—left to pick up the pieces and watch Putin put his plan into action, and by knowing NATO’s weaknesses, he will coerce Ukraine to sign a neutrality agreement like Austria. It wasn’t a good deal back then, and it’s not a good deal now. Ukraine should learn from Austria, and Macron needs to face the fact that his boyish charms don’t work on a dictator.

Day 32 (27 March)

• Reports of the Russians bombing fuel supplies came in overnight as Lviv, near the Polish border was attacked again. Why anyone thought it was a one off I do not know. Common sense tells you that it was a target that the Russians would return to when they felt like it.

• The Ukrainians report that they have regained control of some cities that were occupied. Poltavka, Malynivka, in Zaporizhzhia were ‘liberated’, but until the war is over, the Russians could return.

• The UK has stated that Russian sanctions would be lifted if the Russians withdraw their troops from Ukraine. As the sanctions have had little effect on those in the Kremlin, it is hardly an incentive to pack up and go home. To think it is something the Russians would consider as a ‘perk’ shows how little those in charge understand the situation, and that the decisions and statements they are making are futile ones.

• The city of Chernihiv is now encircled by Russian troops. Earlier in the week, a bridge that was an evacuation route was bombed by the Russians. The plan appears to isolate the city like Mariupol.

• It is claimed that Russia is trying to created a North/South divide (like Korea) in Ukraine, or an East/West divide (like Germany before the wall came down). I actually think that happened already when Crimea was annexed and the Donbas region was dominated by pro-Russians.

• There has been a bit of a stir over Biden stating that Putin cannot remain in power because he is dangerous. Basically, he is saying what the majority of the rational people in the world are thinking, but who aren’t allowed to say it publicly. The White House has tried to play down the comments, claiming that Biden was not suggesting a regime change, as that is for the Russian people to decide. We know that, but we also know that all of Putin’s opponents will never make it to the polls as they are either killed off or imprisoned.

  

• Macron has criticized Biden for his apparent comments that he considers a ‘verbal escalation’ of the crisis. As far as Macron is concerned, the aim is to gain a ceasefire, and for the Russian troops to withdraw. There is a huge flaw in his logic, and arrogance that he believes he can can talk Putin down, and that is Putin doesn’t want or need a ceasefire. Why would they withdraw their troops or voluntarily opt for a ceasefire unless they get what they want? Macron cannot negotiate on behalf of the Ukrainian people and decide their fate by giving up territories and their freedom. This is hardly a ‘united’ NATO where G7 leaders are attacking each other in public, and is exactly what Putin wants. How foolish they are to fall into his trap through egotism!

• Apparently another assassination squad has been after Zelenskyy, so much for peace talks. Those involved had been caught and arrested.

• There are claims that the Luhansk region will hold a referendum for people to choose if they wish to become part of Russia. This is in the Donbas region, where Russian separatists control the area. Ukraine has stated that such a referendum would be consider null and void.

• Zelenskky has asked the West for military equipment, including jets and tanks. The problem is delivering them, as the convoys are likely to be attacked, and personnel will not be trained how to operate either. He further states that what is asking for are stockpiled equipment that is sitting there unused.

• Ukraine is looking to seek the removal of Russia from the IAEA Inrernational Atomic Agency) for ‘nuclear terrorism’, having occupied and attacked two nuclear plants (Chernobyl and Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

• Zelenskyy has stated in an interview that he would consider a neutrality deal to gain a ceasefire, but it would have to be guaranteed by third parties and a referendum would have to be held. There are several flaws in this idea—organizing a referendum with millions of displaced Ukrainians would be very difficult, and they have a right to have their say versus those who are not displaced, and third party guarantees in negotiations have never worked long term, for no country or body has the authority to enforce such ‘guarantees’.

"Security guarantees and neutrality, non-nuclear status of our state. We are ready to go for it. This is the most important point,"