How The World Reacted To The Peace Talks
The rouble went up, and Russia carried on attacking Ukraine
People think that this war might be over soon, judging by the optimism of the Turkish president, but he is the only one that seems to think that. The media initially carried the headlines that negotiations are making progress, but within a few hours when the West and Zelenskyy made statements that mood changed. Optimism turned to realistic skepticism, where Russia declared this did not mean a ceasefire when they claimed to reduce their attacks on Kyiv and Chernihiv, and the West didn’t believe Russia until they saw it with their own eyes.
The explicit conditions of agreeing to a neutral status, where a security guarantor country would effectively be agreeing to support a war against Russia, have not had countries jumping up and down with their hands up volunteering for the role. Germany said they would consider it but not under the terms that Ukraine has laid out, and the UK has said it is not in a position either. So, basically did Ukraine set out conditions that they knew no one could agree on? This is not a quick fix, for there must be a referendum first as well, and that could take a year at the very least.
What is stopping other non-NATO countries coming to the aid of Ukraine? It is the fear of Russian retaliation and the use if chemical weapons. The Treaty of London (1839) guaranteed Belgium neutrality and independence, and it was this ‘scrap of paper’ as the Germans called it that led to Great Britain and France to come to the aid of Belgium in August 1914, for the the Treaty stated that the signatories would defend Belgium’s neutral status. Germany asked Britain to ignore the Treaty so that they could go through Belgium to get to France which was their target, but Britain adhered to the Treaty and defended Belgium. As you can see, dictators and despots are not going to worry about what a treaty says what they can or cannot do, and Putin has been observing the West over the past few decades to see how they respond to conflicts.
There was a 75 year gap between the Treaty of London and the First World War, and usually a treaty is created to keep the peace until the terms are tested. Great Britain honoured the Treaty unlike others. Many have mentioned the Budapest Memorandum in 1994 , signed 28 years ago and that basically all signatories have ignored that scrap of paper too. These documents are signed in good faith and act as a deterrent, but there is no body that can enforce them, and that is the problem with the proposed Ukraine peace deal.
https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/Part/volume-3007-I-52241.pdf
If they hadn’t, then perhaps this conflict would not have begun? They have hid in the NATO bunker, but technically does that absolve the individual countries of their obligations as stated? Doesn’t their sovereign choice supersede that of a collective alliance?
Since 2014, Ukraine has according to Zelenskyy attempted to convene discussions with the parties involved with little success relating to the Budapest Memorandum. Zelenskyy tried again earlier this year, but it became clear that the Budapest Memorandum was ineffective and unenforceable.
They can argue that the treaty was based on a threat of chemical weapons, and that is why Russia is claiming there is no threat of chemical weapons. Ukraine has claimed that phosphorus missiles have been used, which would mean that the UK and the USA have an obligation to defend Ukraine independent of their NATO obligations. As the Treaty covers the use of chemical weapons and where the UK and the USA agreed to protect Ukraine if they were attacked with chemical weapons, they have a legal obligation to actively defend Ukraine.
Day 36 (31 March)
Slovakia has taken the decision to limit the number of Russian diplomats in the country, and as a result 35 will have to leave which is roughly half the staff.
Hungary has accused Ukraine of interfering in the elections as Zelenskyy has criticized the government in refusing to assist in the war beyond humanitarian aid. Reports also claim that Hungary has exaggerated the number of refugees it has taken in, in order to gain additional EU grants.
Zelesnskyy addressed the Australian parliament today, and the country reacted by imposing a 35% tax on any Russian imported goods, and pledged to help Ukraine rebuild the country when the time came. He also spoke to the Dutch parliament in The Hague.
The Director of GCHQ, (Sir Jeremy Fleming) delivered a speech that claimed that Russian troops don’t want to fight, and have shot down their own aircraft.
The evacuation of Mariupol will take place on Friday (hopefully) after Ukrainian refugees have stated the Russians took them to Russia where they then travelled to Estonia for safety. The International Red Cross are coordinating the evacuation effort to ensure that people do not get moved to Russia.
The French Director of military intelligence has been ‘fired’, due to failing to spot the threat of a Russian invasion. General Eric Vidaud has been blamed for inadequate security briefings that did not measure up to the US intelligence. While it is hard to blame someone, perhaps it is more so because Macron has been eagerly trying to resolve things diplomatically and has failed? In truth, this war began in 2014, and had it not been for Covid-19 at the end of 2019, perhaps Putin would have invaded sooner?
Zelenskyy also addressed the Norwegian Parliament yesterday, and asked them to impose tighter sanctions against Russia.
The rouble bounced back when news of a peace deal was announced from 150 roubles to the dollar back to 85, which was the rate before the invasion.
Russians in other countries (especially the US) are sending their family and friends news of the war that has not been censored. This is to help to inform them of what is really going on in Ukraine due to Russia controlling what information is allowed to be reported. Russians are being told that the army is saving Ukrainians.
NATO (Jens Stoltenbetg) states that Russia is not withdrawing but is regrouping.
The Norwegian Prime Minister (Jonas Gahr Stoere) has called Putin, requesting him to halt the invasion.
What a mountain of research, EL, thank you. I have nothing to add, as I agree completely with everything stated in this precis. TC
Reading the treaty of Belgium which says Russia cannot invade, attack or whatever Ukraine unless to rescue the population, is that his angle? Is that why he says he is rescuing them from naziism and it’s not a war? Why didn’t anyone bring up this scrap of paper in 2014 when he ‘rescued’ crimea?