Finland And Sweden Are Invited To Join NATO

Apparently Erdogan of Turkey shows the world that 'blackmail' works

A trilateral agreement was signed by Turkey, Finland, and Sweden—the price to pay for Turkey to drop its objection to the two countries joining NATO. Some say it is just words, but Erdogan got everything he wanted which is why he is grinning from ear to ear in the photos, and what remains to be seem is if the US gives Turkey access to the F-16s that they want.

One must look at how Turkey has behaved in this matter, and they clearly chose to use it for their own benefit—to use their veto power to get things that they have wanted for some time. Sweden in turn has shown willing, and have 10 Kurds lined up t be deported from Sweden. It looks as if it is more for appearances than anything else. Turkey is an odd country, where the cities are modern and thriving, then there are the cheap holiday coastal resorts where money is made during the season, and deep in the rural villages are people who live off the land. There is so much corruption there, and hidden in the less modern parts of the country are plenty of anarchist groups who oppose the government.

The agreement it to extradite suspected terrorists from Finland and Sweden, and for both countries to lift arms embargoes against Turkey. Basically, Erdogan has got everything he wanted, and have made Finland and Sweden declare that certain militant groups are classed as terrorists. I personally see this as a weak appeasement deal, but the bigger picture is that Finland and Sweden need their lands to be protected and this was the only way—by conceding to a semi-dictator. Some say that the Finns and Swedes have sold out the Kurds after accusing the countries of harbouring terrorists. All I can say is that I understand why Finland and Sweden felt they had no choice but to concede to what amounts to fanciful accusations of terrorism, but then again, Turkey has a poor history of how they view human rights (as in they are for show for the West).

NATO formally invites Finland and Sweden to join NATO, while the US increases the defences in Europe. Russia has declared that NATO expansion is ‘destabilising’ , while NATO declares Russia as a ‘threat’ to their security.

The US also states that they will make their US base in Poland permanent, thus extra staff (around 700) will be needed to man the headquarters. The 5th Corp command in Pozan, Poland will be permanent in response to the ongoing threat in the region.

The economic toll of the invasion is being borne by all countries in terms of higher prices on food and energy, plus countries are being asked to contribute more to military defences. Therefore, some are hesitant to continue supporting Ukraine but can’t say that publicly because it needs to look like a united front.

Truss (UK Foreign Secretary) states that the war can only end with a view to peace when these conditions are fulfilled:

1. Russia must leave Ukraine completely and that includes the annexed regions and occupied areas.

2. Russia must be held accountable for alleged war crimes, but there are obstacles as the ICC has limited powers, and the domestic Ukrainian courts have little jurisdiction. A specific tribunal must be in place for these alleged crimes. We have seen a 101 year old ex-Nazi guard sentenced and imprisoned in the last few days, and this is not a short term or quick process.

3. Measures must be in place to prevent Russian acts of aggression again. This would be difficult as it would require permanent peacekeeping forces, and Russia being removed from UN organs or their roles restricted.

I had little faith in NATO at the start of this invasion and it hasn’t changed much now. There is a show of strength and unity, but is this for the ‘family photo’ and the chance to network? A ‘Strategic Concept’ has been announced, which reaffirms the goals of NATO, names the Russian Federation as an aggressor, and that the People’s Republic of China who have a close relationship with Russia is also a threat to peace, democracy and stability in the world.

https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/6/pdf/290622-strategic-concept.pdf

We know some countries seek appeasement, but have to agree the support Ukraine for now, but how long will that last? The Madrid summit will be defined by the Finnish and Swedish applications to join NATO due to the Russian threat, and there is an official statement to confirm the new NATO applicants with the open door policy.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_196951.htm

Day 126 (29 June)

• The major news is that last night Turkey dropped its veto against Finland and Sweden to join NATO with a trilateral agreement being signed. The bigger picture here is that Finland and Sweden need NATO protection and it seems that Turkey used this to get what they wanted.

  

  The formal invitation to join has been made today, but the parliaments of all 30 NATO members need to agree to their accession. NATO has stated that their is an ‘open door’ policy, and that means the door is not closed to Ukraine.

  

  

• Yesterday was Constitution Day in Ukraine, but it went largely unnoticed due to the various G7 and NATO summits going on, plus the Russians bombing a shopping mall.

• Syria has recognised the Donetsk and Luhansk regions known as the Donbas as self-declared separatist independent states, and has stated it will look at was to strengthen ties with Russian client states.

• Shaun Pinner, one of the captured British men in the Donbas has filed an appeal against the death sentence passed for allegedly being a mercenary. He was captured in Mariupol when the city fell to the Russians, and was serving in the Ukrainian army as he had moved there several years ago, If an appeal fails, a pardon will be sought according to his lawyer. He was tried in a pseudo-court that is only recognised by Russia, and now Syria, a Russian ally.

• Mykolaiv has been targeted again, where a training base has been attacked as well as residential areas. Several people have died after reports of eight missiles have been said to have hit the city.

• The Indonesian president has visited Ukraine in an attempt to urge a peace deal. Joko Widodo is concerned about the food shortages and the blockage of grain exports. Currently, Indonesia hold the presidency of the G20, and will visit Putin in Russia after his visit to Ukraine. While Indonesia has condemned the invasion by Russia, it seeks to retain relations with Russia and will suggest that Putin employs a ceasefire. Personally, I would not waste the fuel to fly to Russia as if Macron has failed after numerous times, and even Erdogan who has Russian ties, then why would Putin listen to Widodo?

  All these leaders urging peace talks and a ceasefire must be deaf, because Russia isn’t interested and you can’t negotiate when a party doesn’t want to, or if they have no interest in talking. Ceasefires usually end up with a far worse secondary war because time has been allowed for restocking weapons and additional planning.

• An old KGB spy has been arrested for treason, on suspicion of aiding the Russians on an attack on Lviv. He was caught sending information on Ukrainian troops and their locations to Russians via an online messenger service for the purposes of missile strikes. This is not the first traitor that has aided the Russians and there are probably many that have not been caught. Therefore, a ceasefire will not end this war if traitors are hidden within Ukraine and who continue to assist the Russians.

• Lithuania is being cautious as it extends the state of emergency in the country. They have been threatened by Russia already and with the Kaliningrad railways being blocked, they do have cause for concern.

  

• The US imposes more sanctions against Russian entities. The Bank of Moscow and Rostec are added to the list. Rostec is a group of holding companies (more than 800 entities) that includes United Aircraft Corporation that make fighter jets including MiGs. This is in a bid to halt or slow down the Russian air attacks against Ukraine. However, such a move will take months before any effects will be seen.

• Zelenskyy requests that the UN recognise Russia as a terrorist state due to the attack on the Kremenchuk shopping mall. This is unlikely as the UN are always slow, and Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council. I agree with Zelenskyy in principle, but the UN is structured in such a way that it is not easy to do what is necessary or what is right without jumping through an obstacle course blindfolded and with your hands tied behind your back.

  

• France appears to be sending more weapons to Ukraine after the G7 summit, and like Germany they have been slow, and while it is not ground breaking news, I see it as more as if France and Germany must be seen to be doing their part to assist and support Ukraine, other than telephone calls.

  

• There has been a prisoner swap of 144 prisoners of war, where some of the captured Azov solidiers have been released. Reports say they have returned injured. 43 Azov fighters were part of 95 soldiers who defended Azovstal, and were included in the largest prisoner swap to date.That means there are at least 2, 300 more in captivity.

  

• NATO has released their Strategic Concept, which outlines their current position, and how Russia and China are viewed which are as global threats.

  Stolenberg is keen to point out that China is not an adversary but their actions pose a threat to NATO security. By that he means the spread of disinformation in Russia’s favour, and intimidating Taiwan.

  Here are some of the key points made:

  The Euro-Atlantic area is not at peace. The Russian Federation has violated the norms and principles that contributed to a stable and predictable European security order. We cannot discount the possibility of an attack against Allies’ sovereignty and territorial integrity. Strategic competition, pervasive instability and recurrent shocks define our broader security environment. The threats we face are global and interconnected.

  7. Authoritarian actors challenge our interests, values and democratic way of life. They are investing in sophisticated conventional, nuclear and missile capabilities, with little transparency or regard for international norms and commitments. Strategic competitors test our resilience and seek to exploit the openness, interconnectedness and digitalisation of our nations. They interfere in our democratic processes and institutions and target the security of our citizens through hybrid tactics, both directly and through proxies. They conduct malicious activities in cyberspace and space, promote disinformation campaigns, instrumentalise migration, manipulate energy supplies and employ economic coercion. These actors are also at the forefront of a deliberate effort to undermine multilateral norms and institutions and promote authoritarian models of governance.

  The next sections point out the Russian threat and how NATO will address them, as in they will defend only if they are attacked.

  The Russian Federation is the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area. It seeks to establish spheres of influence and direct control through coercion, subversion, aggression and annexation. It uses conventional, cyber and hybrid means against us and our partners. Its coercive military posture, rhetoric and proven willingness to use force to pursue its political goals undermine the rules-based international order. The Russian Federation is modernising its nuclear forces and expanding its novel and disruptive dual-capable delivery systems, while employing coercive nuclear signalling. It aims to destabilise countries to our East and South. In the High North, its capability to disrupt Allied reinforcements and freedom of navigation across the North Atlantic is a strategic challenge to the Alliance. Moscow’s military build-up, including in the Baltic, Black and Mediterranean Sea regions, along with its military integration with Belarus, challenge our security and interests.

  9. NATO does not seek confrontation and poses no threat to the Russian Federation. We will continue to respond to Russian threats and hostile actions in a united and responsible way. We will significantly strengthen deterrence and defence for all Allies, enhance our resilience against Russian coercion and support our partners to counter malign interference and aggression. In light of its hostile policies and actions, we cannot consider the Russian Federation to be our partner. However, we remain willing to keep open channels of communication with Moscow to manage and mitigate risks, prevent escalation and increase transparency. We seek stability and predictability in the Euro-Atlantic area and between NATO and the Russian Federation. Any change in our relationship depends on the Russian Federation halting its aggressive behaviour and fully complying with international law.

  China is also mentioned specifically and their actions are noted as a threat to democracy, and harms the member states of NATO. These are seen as threats to security in the region. NATO also states that China is attempting to ‘divide’ the allies and pit them against each other.

  The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) stated ambitions and coercive policies challenge our interests, security and values. The PRC employs a broad range of political, economic and military tools to increase its global footprint and project power, while remaining opaque about its strategy, intentions and military build-up. The PRC’s malicious hybrid and cyber operations and its confrontational rhetoric and disinformation target Allies and harm Alliance security. The PRC seeks to control key technological and industrial sectors, critical infrastructure, and strategic materials and supply chains. It uses its economic leverage to create strategic dependencies and enhance its influence. It strives to subvert the rules-based international order, including in the space, cyber and maritime domains. The deepening strategic partnership between the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation and their mutually reinforcing attempts to undercut the rules-based international order run counter to our values and interests.

  14. We remain open to constructive engagement with the PRC, including to build reciprocal transparency, with a view to safeguarding the Alliance’s security interests. We will work together responsibly, as Allies, to address the systemic challenges posed by the PRC to Euro-Atlantic security and ensure NATO’s enduring ability to guarantee the defence and security of Allies. We will boost our shared awareness, enhance our resilience and preparedness, and protect against the PRC’s coercive tactics and efforts to divide the Alliance. We will stand up for our shared values and the rules- based international order, including freedom of navigation.

  NATO also mentions the threat of a nuclear attack, and names several countries that appear to be stockpiling nuclear weapons. This is also considered a threat to NATO member states.

  The erosion of the arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation architecture has negatively impacted strategic stability. The Russian Federation’s violations and selective implementation of its arms control obligations and commitments have contributed to the deterioration of the broader security landscape. The potential use of Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear materials or weapons against NATO by hostile state and non-state actors remains a threat to our security. Iran and North Korea continue to develop their nuclear and missile programmes. Syria, North Korea and the Russian Federation, along with non-state actors, have resorted to the use of chemical weapons. The PRC is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal and is developing increasingly sophisticated delivery systems, without increasing transparency or engaging in good faith in arms control or risk reduction.

  NATO justifies assisting allies without engaging in war (hybrid) as it is a defensive alliance that assists with peace by use of deterrence methods. It is also a warning that Article 5 can and will be invoked if necessary.

  We will invest in our ability to prepare for, deter, and defend against the coercive use of political, economic, energy, information and other hybrid tactics by states and non- state actors. Hybrid operations against Allies could reach the level of armed attack and could lead the North Atlantic Council to invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. We will continue to support our partners to counter hybrid challenges and seek to maximise synergies with other relevant actors, such as the European Union.

  NATO reaffirms the open door policy and make reference to Russia’s demand that Ukraine should not ever be a member of NATO by stating no third parties have a say in membership.

  NATO’s enlargement has been a historic success. It has strengthened our Alliance, ensured the security of millions of European citizens and contributed to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area. We reaffirm our Open Door policy, consistent with Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty, as an expression of our fundamental values and our strategic interest in Euro-Atlantic peace and stability. Our door remains open to all European democracies that share the values of our Alliance, which are willing and able to assume the responsibilities and obligations of membership, and whosemembership contributes to our common security. Decisions on membership are taken by NATO Allies and no third party has a say in this process.

  

• The Madrid Summit Declaration was released, noting that NATO has an open door policy, and formally invites Finland and Sweden to join. It states a number of NATO objectives and the official position on Russia declaring that they are a direct threat to the security of NATO states. Here are the key points made:

  We condemn Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in the strongest possible terms. It gravely undermines international security and stability. It is a blatant violation of international law. Russia’s appalling cruelty has caused immense human suffering and massive displacements, disproportionately affecting women and children. Russia bears full responsibility for this humanitarian catastrophe. Russia must enable safe, unhindered, and sustained humanitarian access. Allies are working with relevant stakeholders in the international community to hold accountable all those responsible for war crimes, including conflict-related sexual violence. Russia has also intentionally exacerbated a food and energy crisis, affecting billions of people around the world, including through its military actions. Allies are working closely to support international efforts to enable exports of Ukrainian grain and to alleviate the global food crisis. We will continue to counter Russia’s lies and reject its irresponsible rhetoric. Russia must immediately stop this war and withdraw from Ukraine. Belarus must end its complicity in this war.

  NATO reaffirms their support for Ukraine, and all NATO states must adhere and agree to this, and that includes Hungary!

  We warmly welcome President Zelenskyy’s participation in this Summit. We stand in full solidarity with the government and the people of Ukraine in the heroic defence of their country. We reiterate our unwavering support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders extending to its territorial waters. We fully support Ukraine’s inherent right to self-defence and to choose its own security arrangements. We welcome efforts of all Allies engaged in providing support to Ukraine. We will assist them adequately, recognising their specific situation.

  NATO spells out clearly that authoritarian regimes pose threats to the security of NATO. This is a veiled warning to China who is also a permanent member of the UN Security Council, so there are difficulties ahead when two permanent members are considered a threat to world peace.

  We continue to face distinct threats from all strategic directions. The Russian Federation is the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area. Terrorism, in all its forms and manifestations, continues to pose a direct threat to the security of our populations, and to international stability and prosperity. We categorically reject and condemn terrorism in the strongest possible terms. With determination, resolve, and in solidarity, Allies will continue to counter Russian threats and respond to its hostile actions and to fight terrorism, in a manner consistent with international law.

  We are confronted by cyber, space, and hybrid and other asymmetric threats, and by the malicious use of emerging and disruptive technologies. We face systemic competition from those, including the People’s Republic of China, who challenge our interests, security, and values and seek to undermine the rules-based international order.

  We have endorsed a new Strategic Concept. It describes the security environment facing the Alliance, reaffirms our values, and spells out NATO’s key purpose and greatest responsibility of ensuring our collective defence based on a 360-degree approach. It further sets out NATO’s three core tasks of deterrence and defence; crisis prevention and management; and cooperative security. In the years to come, it will guide our work in the spirit of our transatlantic solidarity.

  NATO admits that the Finnish and Swedish applications are the fastest ones to have happened to date. These are unique and exceptional circumstances and it was essential to allow them to join NATO to avoid further invasions and a potential war in the region. That is why Turkey should not be thanked as they hindered things for their own personal gain.

  We reaffirm our commitment to NATO’s Open Door Policy. Today, we have decided to invite Finland and Sweden to become members of NATO, and agreed to sign the Accession Protocols. In any accession to the Alliance, it is of vital importance that the legitimate security concerns of all Allies are properly addressed. We welcome the conclusion of the trilateral memorandum between Türkiye, Finland, and Sweden to that effect. The accession of Finland and Sweden will make them safer, NATO stronger, and the Euro-Atlantic area more secure. The security of Finland and Sweden is of direct importance to the Alliance, including during the accession process.

• Zelenskyy addressed the NATO summit and requested more weapons and support. He also reminded the members that Russia intends to take all the land that they think belongs to them. This was a message to those who seek appeasement, and as reminder that the Baltic states are vulnerable to an invasion.

• The US 5th Corp command in Pozan, Poland will now become a permanent US headquarters for NATO operations. This is the first time NATO or US troops have been permanently based in Poland.