Does Ukrainian Liberation Mean Russian Escalation?

Over the past seven months, I have read some harrowing accounts of people who have lost everything, who have survived or witnessed horrific war crimes, where people have been tortured, some even buried alive. Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine swelled his pride and pleaded with the world to help Ukraine defend itself from one of the largest armies in the world. It took a while for some of the big hitters to come onboard and send weapons, but there were a few that didn’t hesitate to help a country in need.

I recall when I first began to document this war, as I could not believe the US were only sending humanitarian aid and NATO didn’t utter a word, because it had nothing to do with them as Ukraine was only a partner and not a member of NATO. Sanctions have done little, and statements condemning Russia are just recorded, but have little impact. Deeds as well as words are necessary for Russia to be removed from Ukraine, and we know Ukraine cannot do it alone.

Putin had been threatening annexation for months, and finally it has happened because he wishes to mobilise the men in the regions and use them as cannon fodder. Residents in those areas have struggled to leave, and we read accounts of people having to fill out forms to leave, and to handover their social media accounts and phone details so they can check to see if they are military or are activists. The Russians want to know the purpose of a visit outside of the area and names of all their relatives. This is what happened during the Second World War, and the Ukrainians who hadn’t left should have been aware of this if they studied history. I’m not blaming them, but they took a risk and are paying the price for it. Most people if they knew Russia was coming to attack your region, you stay and fight them, or evacuate to safety.

While I understand people didn’t wish to leave their homes, they knew Russia was seeking to annex the areas they occupied, and that they would be trapped. So why did so many leave it until the last minute to try and leave? As soon as Putin announced the partial mobilisation, men that were in danger of being called up didn’t have to think about it and left the country within hours. That’s because they know how the Russian government works, and the Ukrainians should have understood that after Crimea.

The war has been going on for 7 months, so these people trying to leave have had 7 months to formulate a plan to leave. Did they think things would get better? I read accounts where people visited friends and relatives in areas that were not occupied, so what made them want to return to an occupied area? Sadly, some of these people who suddenly realised that Russia was taking over are trapped, and it’s hard to have sympathy when they had ample time to get out. The elderly that died trying to leave did so because they had no choice, but young people with families, they had the means to do so, so why didn’t they? Only when the realisation of being drafted to fight against Ukraine arose did they suddenly think they needed to get out. Too late—the Russians weren’t going to let you leave if they have a use for you.

Day 224 (5 October)

• NATO formally receives Ukraine’s application to join the alliance. This was made on 30 September 2022, when Putin illegally annexed partial occupied regions of Ukraine. NATO members are split on how to handle this, as the Baltic neighbours support the move, knowing that this protects them as well, while others such as the US say the time isn’t right. We know that Ukraine as it stands doesn’t qualify for membership due to the invasion and the ongoing Donbas conflict, but for NATO to reject Ukraine would be a win for Putin.

  

• Others say that NATO membership isn’t necessary as NATO supports Ukraine, but it is only support that they are willing to provide, and not the support Ukraine needs. There is still corruption in Ukraine, but that can be said of all countries including Hungary that has seen a rise in corruption. All 30 countries must agree, and it will be a struggle to get half of them to agree, and those who don’t will have to defend their decisions.

• Putin has signed legislation to annex the partially occupied territories in Ukraine. Those are Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia . This comes after the Russian parliament agreed to ratify the votes, and for the regions to become part of the Russian Federation. Only North Korea recognises such an action, and while the world leaders make their statements declaring the referendums as illegal and non-binding, their words do little to help the Ukrainians trapped in an occupied territory.

  

  This is illegal under international law, but what body will do anything about this? The ridiculous thing is that Russia remains a permanent member of the UN Security Council with the right to veto any action against them while violating the UN Charter and international law. That is why the UN has no credibility.

• Despite the Ukrainian advances, the Kremlin has stated they will retake the areas that they ‘lost’ when Ukraine liberated them last week. That means these recently liberated areas are still under threat as Russia plans to return.

• The Russian mobilisation actually began in May 2022, and the Wagner group has been recruiting convicts for months to join the Russian army. While the Kremlin says it is a partial mobilisation, many believe it is a national mobilisation but they don’t want the world to know that they are desperate for soldiers (cannon fodder).

• Ukraine has liberated more villages in Kharkiv. Among them are Bohuslavka and Borivska Andriyivka. The task of retaking territory has been successful, but it is too early to be complacent, and there is the human cost of lives lost (on both sides) and the fact that villages and towns have been reduced to rubble. Rebuilding Ukraine will take a long time, and even longer for the scars to heal.

  

• HMS Somerset (a type 23 frigate) is a British warship that has been sent to secure the pipelines in the North Sea after the Nord Stream pipeline leaks . This is in conjunction with the Norwegian Navy and is a preventative measure. With so much uncertainty, the decision to take preventative action means that the type 23s can monitor the skies and sonars can track underwater activity as well.

  

  

• The joint expeditionary force (JEF), which is a UK led coalition have discussed the sabotage that occurred in the Baltic Sea. As a result of this they are disgusting security measures, collaborative surveillance, and a more prominent maritime presence. The coalition comprises of defence ministers from Estonia, Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Sweden, and the Netherlands as well as the UK. These measures come after the Russian illegal annexation of occupied regions in Ukraine. While nobody wants to state that Russia has escalated the war, it is clear that there are concerns and that Russia has escalated the war by annexing territory that they have invaded.

• Many countries in addition to the EU have discussed further sanctions against Russia and those entities that support the legal annexation of Ukrainian territory. After seven months, this seems to be the response that the world offers each time Russia carries out an atrocity, and whilst some of the sanctions make life difficult for Russia, it's simply is not enough to deter Russia. What we saw was Russia stealing Ukrainian grain and then selling it on the black market at a cheap price.

  

  The idea of the sanctions was to isolate Russia and to force them to retreat and leave Ukraine. That plan can only work if all nations agreed to isolate Russia, and China, India, Saudi Arabia and others have chosen not to impose sanctions against Russia. Therefore, Russia can never truly be isolated and the plans for sanctions has had limited affect.

  The new sanctions (8th round for the EU) will includes export controls more import bans, and a discussion on the proposed energy cap. Not all countries agree with the cap (15 out of 27 do), and Germany is one of them who prefer a relief package. The Russian aim is to freeze Europe, and their plan seems to have more grounding than what I consider the useless sanctions that have been made inch by inch during the year. Sanctions should have be swift and sharp in a single swoop, not itty bitty here and there because they made no difference for 3-4 months was thousands of Ukrainians died, were tortured, or were forced to become refugees.

• In Russia, the first case of a man avoiding mobilisation has been reported. In Penza, a 32 year old man has been charged with failing to sign his call up papers and may face up to 2 years in prison.

• The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is allegedly going to be run by Russia some reports claim as the plant is in occupied territory. The recently released Director General will not be returning to his job, and the head of Enerhoatom, Petro Kotin says he will run the plant from Kyiv. He also said in a video statement that star should not sign contracts with the Russian occupiers. The IAEA director, Grossi is due to visit soon, but the nuclear plant remains a politically sensitive issue and also a dangerous one.

• While many countries and personalities advocate for a peaceful resolution and urge negotiations and talks, the wise know that if Russia agrees, it is to stall for time. Russia has already stated its position, and by annexing the partially occupied regions, what is there to negotiate? They have taken land, that Ukraine is fighting to retake, so how can there be peace while Russia still attacks while Ukraine defends?

  

• Soldiers that were mobilised in Omsk are informed that there is no money to pay them. Other claims are that any loans they have will be frozen. From how it looks, it appears that Russia is hoping that they don’t have to pay the men who they are enlisting as cannon fodder. All the promises of being paid lumps sums are lies, so how will the new recruits react to this, and what rights do they have? We are talking about Russia here, so the laws are not exactly ones that get followed. Are men supposed to go to war and not get paid? Perhaps that’s why all the Russian soldiers were looting small items because they were so desperate?