As we enter day 17 of the Ukrainian invasion, it seems like an eternity for those watching and waiting to hear the conflict has ended, and this is probably a horrific nightmare for Ukrainians who do not know what the future holds for them. If you didn’t know where Ukraine was, then you probably do now. I know many are afraid to watch the news, in fear of hearing the dreaded words that no one wishes to hear, and to watch helplessly as we see images of people crying and in despair, cities reduced to rubble, and reporters shielding themselves from explosions. We watch the diplomatic talks do very little, knowing most of the nitty gritty will be behind closed doors.
The world leaders are doing what they can to prevent a World War, but I can’t say that they are doing their best, for each country will put their own interests first, and that is their own national security above all else. Alliances are supposed to work together and trust each other, but like any gang, there are cliques and ones that you can turn to for support against others, and of course the unofficial leaders of the gang whose voices are heard above all the others.
The no-fly zone is sought after by the Ukrainians as much of the damage has been caused by airstrikes. If the no-fly zone was imposed, that would mean most of the battles would be on land where it is more of a hand-to-hand fight. Also, it means that the Ukrainians can see them coming where as with airstrikes, specific areas will have been targeted and it is hard to prevent them unless you have aircraft to take them out before they can strike.
A no-fly zone will effectively start World War III as Russian aircraft would have to be taken out as a defensive measure if they engaged. In an ideal world, a no-fly zone could be introduced and the Russians would retreat, and not engage. However, that is unlikely and we know that measures such as these that act a as a deterrent don’t always work when soldiers are expendable.
There are no winners in war for everyone loses something—citizens have died, soldiers have died in the line of duty, businesses have lost revenue, staff have lost their jobs, buildings have been damaged, cities destroyed, refugees displaced, political relations have been strained between all countries, people have no access to food, heat, water or medical supplies, and the list goes on.
I read an email from a journal that I once subscribed to (to get the free moleskine) that was a little left-wing, and they have columnists with their opinions that seemed like propaganda. The content included articles that claimed that Russia has failed because they have lost their geopolitical power—the fact is that no one ever really trusted the Russians and they knew it. People are still a little skeptical about the Germans because of the Nazi Party, the French will always have a love/hate relationship with the UK, and while China is powerful, many countries don’t trust the government at all despite the staged photo calls.
Further comments included an opinion that Putin hasn’t got what he wanted from the war—I think we are nowhere near being able to state an opinion on that when no one knows exactly what he wanted. If he wanted to reunite the old USSR, then he has made some dependent states even more dependent on Russia, such as Kyrgyzstan, and has also annexed Crimea illegally. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, but I am also wary of those who use their titles and experience (such as former advisors to, or lecturers in military history) who comment, because many will have some bias. As the journal leans to the left, this invasion is making socialists and hard left-wingers appear to be less communistic. The issue that I see here is that Russia and China don’t care what other countries thinks about them and will do what they want, while the UK and US do care, and like to appease when they can. Appeasement is what led to the Second World War, with a failure to mount sufficient defences and guarantees during the negotiation periods.
In this day and age, as the social media channels are challenging, trying to balance free speech and disinformation that can be concealed. Meta and Instagram have been chopping and changing their rules each day, where now Meta will only permit anti-Russian comments in Ukraine, and state that they will not tolerate attacks on Russians on Facebook. This policy will no doubt change at some point too. All social media platforms are being tested, where verified accounts are posting disinformation and propaganda. Algorithms can be bypassed, and censoring posts and allowing free speech at the same time is not going to be easy, but these days this is how many people communicate and is where they find their information, so banning doesn’t always work. That is the double-edged sword of moderating free speech.
Russian are being censored, and those who protest or speak out can be detained and imprisoned. The authorities have started to use face recognition software to track people down, and citizens have resorted to using emojis and code words to meet to get around censorship. Those of us who have been used to speaking against and challenging a government and their policies without fear (in the UK, and US) cannot understand how brave these people are for wanting to protest. When you live in China or Russia and you speak out against the government and get caught, then expect to get arrested or executed.
How are the sanctions working out? If China and other countries like India keep trading with Russia, it will defeat the purpose of the sanctions if they prop up Russia. While it means the rich can’t access their funds and potentially support the war, most are used to sanctions and will have assets available in other ways.
Other countries that have not condemned the invasion and who have opted to remain neutral include; South Africa, China, Pakistan, Mexico, Brazil, and India. North Korea is likely to support Russia too, as well as Belarus as we know is pro-Russian and who will probably provide troops for Russia too. If they didn’t need Russian oil, fertilizer, and other trade goods (arms being one of them), would they still be ‘neutral’?
Other African countries have remained silent, like Morocco, Ethiopia, where Sudan was welcomed by the Russians in Moscow on the first day of the invasion. Every country and their response to the crisis will be scrutinised. Western countries have supported many African countries over the decades, and to find that they cannot support the countries that have helped them may leave them stranded when they need help again.
In a crucial time when sides are establishing allies, some of these African countries that we have been supporting take for granted that the aid offered was only because we have the freedoms and liberties that we protect—the very same thing that Ukraine is fighting to protect. Russia had been lobbying for African support over the years, and it appears to have worked.
Uganda has openly shown support for Russia, and suggests that this is a racist issue. Remaining neutral is one thing, but voicing support as Uganda is (and where Muhoozi Kainerugaba, a now retired General encouraged people to support Putin) is propaganda and dangerous when people don’t have the full picture.
The goal for Putin has always been to take Kyiv, and the Russians have been advancing slowly. Images of the mayor of Melitopol (Ivan Fedorov) who was blindfolded and abducted have been released in the public domain. The people have protested at such an action, but what can they do when the Russians have occupied their city? What will the Russians do if they take parts of Kyiv? One doesn’t want to think what the consequences would be, but if NATO chooses to act, isn’t that a bit late in the day? Will NATO standby and watch Kyiv fall? The Ukrainian army is strong willed, but they lack the manpower that Russia has, and now they have mercenaries from other countries, but which countries are coming to the aid of Ukraine?
How can this crisis end? No one wants World War III, but Ukraine doesn’t have the manpower to fight Russia, and Russia knows it. Now that Russia is hiring mercenaries that are expendable, what is the point of shipping equipment and weapons to Ukraine when they don’t have sufficient personnel to use them effectively?
One way is to push the Russians out and to force them to retreat. That is difficult now because they have occupied some cities and towns, and they effectively control Belarus that borders the north of Ukraine, and have control of some of the southern ports and Crimea. That means the Russians would control the sea.
The other option is a ceasefire, but Russia has stated its terms and won’t budge. They will ceasefire only if Ukraine effectively surrenders and hands over their army, and for NATO and the EU to agree to never to give them membership.
What if Putin’s regime was ousted and replaced? There would still be those within the Kremlin that would try and continue the invasion, and that would lead to bloodshed. Political opponents of Putin have always been in danger of assassination, like Boris Nemtsov, who was assassinated on 27 February 2015, He had been encouraging people to protest against the Ukrainian war before he died. A regime change takes time, and it is unlikely to happen without support from other countries.
The last resort is for NATO to intervene, but the issue is how to do so ‘legitimately’? NATO doesn’t want to go to war, especially as the UK and US have just left Iraq after a long and protracted war that arguably wasn’t a conflict they should have been involved in.
After all the sanctions have been imposed, and after more talks that may not achieve a peaceful and secure resolution for Ukraine, what is left? What will be left of Ukraine to save? I watch the tragic plight of the refugees—they didn’t want this and a month ago they probably had planned to do other things with their family and friends this weekend. Instead, they are on the run and trying to survive and find somewhere safe.
How bad must things get before the UN, and NATO act rather than talk and hope for the best?
Day 17 (12 March)
Russian censorship has led to citizens using emojis to send messages to avoid being detained or arrested. Code words are used, and some people are too afraid to protest or be seen out if they are misidentified. Unauthorized protests have been banned since 2014.
Deutsche Bank has changed its position on Russia and will not take on new Russian business and will wind down their current business. This is inline with other companies, like Goldman Sachs who announced similar measures a few days ago.
Animals are also suffering from the invasion as we cannot forget pets who may have been abandoned, and also zoo animals who have no food supplies as staff risk their lives to tend to them. There are reports that some were killed by an airstrike in Kharkiv when they went to tend to the animals.
Meta (Facebook) implements a new policy that only allows anti-Russian posts in Ukraine because they do not wish to appear Russophobic, and do not allow discrimination against Russians.
The secretive private military company called the Wagner Group has been recruiting mercenaries via social media (Telegram that is less regulated). There are fewer restrictions to join now, where having a criminal record doesn’t matter. They were first identified during the annexation of Crimea in 2014, and are based in Russia, where the owner has ties with Putin.
Poland is struggling with the influx of refugees and is encouraging refugees to go to other parts of the country. One must feel for the refugees, to have escaped the shelling and then be ushered to other cities and countries. They are unsettled and traumatised as it is, and then to find there isn’t room for them must be heartbreaking to have to flee your home and then have nowhere else to go.
Poland has also passed legislation so that refugees can live and work in the country for 18 months. There will also have access to free education, healthcare and social service benefits.
Evacuation routes have been attacked still, but with more cities being attacked, more routes will have to be established.
Chinese media sites have been spreading disinformation that is anti-Ukrainian.
More cities have been attacked overnight—Kropyvntskyi, Chernihiv, and Nikolaev.
Zelenskyy has stated that before negotiations take place a ceasefire must be agreed.
Russia persists in spreading disinformation without any evidence to back the claims, accusing Ukraine of violations of international law.
The Russians have been bombing more hospitals as they advance and encircle Kyiv.
France (Macron) and Germany (Scholz) hold talks with Putin. I doubt they can do very much because they cannot speak for the Ukrainians, and Macron’s talks with Putin last month yielded nothing that could prevent the invasion. Other countries have tried, but the fact is that Russia is not willing to negotiate unless they get what they want. The talks did indeed yield nothing of worth except that Putin doesn’t wish to negotiate.
The city of Volnovakha has been completely destroyed.
Anti-war protests have taken place around the world. Kyiv is twinned with Firenze and Zelenskyy addressed the crowds outside the Santa Maria Della Croce. Perhaps their governments will take heed and opt to act? The majority of the world is behind Ukraine, but the support of the world will not magic a no-fly zone, or extra trained troops to defend the country.
The UN and NATO are often slow to make decisions, and it opens up discussions, but even so there is red tape in getting any action authorized. Here are some examples of how ineffective the UN can be:
https://www.un.org/press/en/2022/sc14808.doc.htm
https://www.un.org/press/en/2022/ga12406.doc.htm
There are 193 members countries of the UN (181 participated) —141 members supported the vote to condemn the Russian invasion into Ukraine, 35 members abstained, and 5 opposed (Russian, Belarus, Syria, North Korea, and Eritrea).
The assembly was held on 28 February, but when you look at the figures it is a concern that countries chose to abstain and not to participate when this could lead to a World War. That means that 52 member countries did not effectively support the vote, and even within those that did like Botswana, they have refused to give an independent statement on Russia, taking a neutral stance. Perhaps some chose to vote on the safe side, so that no one could criticize them or potentially impose sanctions against them for appearing to support Russia.
https://www.un.org/press/en/2022/ga12407.doc.htm
The rare emergency assembly didn’t appear to have much effect to be brutally honest, as the agreement was to ‘reprimand’ Russia and demand that they cease fighting and withdraw their troops. That was on 2 March, and 10 days later they have ignored everything. The UN has no enforcement powers and General Assembly resolutions are non-binding, which means it is up to the member countries to abide by the resolution. Only Security Council resolutions (under Chapter VII) are binding, and that would mean military force.
The world leaders and politicians appear to believe that sanctions and their negotiation skills will lead to a peaceful resolution, or at least a ceasefire. Unfortunately, I do not share their confidence, for many of the measures that businesses and governments are taking are not short term ones, but ones that are taken as precautionary measures because they know things are going to be rocky. History also tells us that dictators can’t be trusted with negotiations either… are we doomed to suffer the consequences of those who have failed to learn lessons from previous wars, or because they were asleep during their history lessons?
I believe the UN had wonderful intentions and did do good work when first put together, but I haven't believed in that organization for decades. IMO, as they grew bigger and bigger and more countries were added, they achieved less and less--all words and no actions. Realistically, that is to be expected, as there is no way to have SO many disparate entities (countries), with such different expectations and governments work together to achieve one goal. Unfortunately, I have seen nothing in their behaviour now that makes me change my mind. Add to that NATO and their reluctance to make a decision to take actions that might actually bring a stop to the fighting and we have a continuing problem with no resolution that would help Ukraine. And because the world wants 'transparency' in everything now, negotiating things that might help Ukraine won't happen behind the scene, either. I wish I had a solution. So very frustrating to have to sit and watch from the sidelines as more people are injured, killed, displaced, livelihoods and homes destroyed. My heart just hurts for everyone.
I am too heartsick even to inflict more of my rage on all here. Thank you, EL, for being willing to immerse yourself in this filth daily to make sure history is recorded. I don't know how you do it. TC