We all want peace, but in order to achieve peace all parties must want it and I don’t believe that is what Russia wants and ever will. Therefore, while the allied countries push for a peace plan, they fail to acknowledge a crucial element—that Russia doesn’t want peace. Russia wants Ukraine back under its control and it wants the old USSR back, and the world leaders simply don’t want to accept what has been obvious to the historians and analysts for years.
The G7 summit has stated that Russia must leave the occupied territories in order for there to be peace talks, yet all this does is make Russia deport Ukrainians to Russia (and to replace them with Russians as they did in Crimea) and to force people to have Russian passports, while demolishing all buildings so that the owners cannot claim their property when they return.
The response from the US has always been measured and they have stated they have given Ukraine what they believed they needed at the time. They have agreed in principle for the re-exporting of F-16s to Ukraine and also to train Ukrainian pilots. Kirby, the National Security spokesman said that the decision was in line with the next phase of the war and what Ukraine needed. I interpret this as meaning that they had no choice but to agree with so many countries already training pilots, and the fact is that tanks simply aren’t enough when you are dealing with drones and hypersonic missiles.
Day 449 (18 May)
Hungary has threatened to block sanctions against Russia unless Ukraine removes the OTP bank from the list of international war sponsors. This comes as OTP bank said they would continue to trade in Russia.
Li Hui, the special Chinese envoy met with Kuleba for talks on a peace plan 16-17 May 2023. Kuleba stated that Ukraine will not consider any peace proposals that involve losing territory or a ceasefire. That means that Russians must leave the occupied regions including Crimea and the Donbas, and a ceasefire is not acceptable as it merely means Russia will regroup.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative has been extended for another 60 days, but in truth it means little as Russia is still blocking vessels and holding up shipments with long inspections. Erdogan was keen to make the announcement to assist with his election campaign as he is up for re-election.
The South African president, Cyril Ramaphosa has said he wishes to visit Ukraine to discuss a peace initiative with other African countries. On the surface that looks good, but we must remember that many African countries abstained or voted against the UN resolutions stating that Russia was carrying out acts of aggression. One should be careful as if they visit, they might be spying on the security in Ukraine and would report back to the Kremlin. It all sounds a little dubious given that they all wish to come to Ukraine.
More air raid sirens flood Ukraine since Zelenskyy’s visits to other world leaders. Russia seems nervous that Ukraine is getting so much support and Zelenskyy is making a point of visiting and publicly being seen to shake hands and to be greeted by other world leaders.
The Council of Europe summit has officially validated the Zelenskyy peace formula, which consists of 10 points. The formality of this means that the UN will come under pressure to support this as well and this will put pressure on Russia to either withdraw, or the alternative is to keep fighting and to waste the lives of young men to try and reinvent the USSR.
NATO is planning to adopt plans at the Vilnius summit, and to lay out procedures as to how the alliance will respond to any Russian attacks. This may not be for now, but given that relations between Russia and the West have deteriorated, there needs to be a plan of action as Russia is now considered a threat.
Day 450 (19 May)
The G7 summit begins in Japan and Zelenskyy will arrive on 20 May 2023. Other countries have been invited to attend and include Australia, India, Brazil, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Comoros (representing the African union) and the Cook Islands, representing the Pacific Islands. This makes discussions on Ukraine difficult as some countries have maintained a neutral stance and others have shown some support towards Russia by opting not to impose sanctions against the country.
Zelenskyy met Arab leaders in Jeddah for a meeting of the Arab League summit. He accused some of turning a blind eye to the acts of aggression, as he was there to gain support for his peace formula.Syria was permitted back into the Arab League (much to the dismay of the global community) and is an active supporter of the Kremlin and the special military operation. Many countries have maintained a neutral stance, while either abstaining from UN resolutions but have provided humanitarian aid, yet they choose not impose sanctions against Russia to maintain trading links.
Day 451 (20 May)
Zelenskyy arrives in Hiroshima, Japan to join the G7 summit. Eight other countries have also been invited, including India where Zelenskyy met with Modi, the Prime Minister to discuss the peace formula. India has claimed it is neutral, yet has been supporting Russia by purchasing fertilisers, gas and oil, thus they have been financially enabling the war.
The G7 summit has been tackling the issue of how to stop the war in Ukraine, and said they would starve Russia of G7 technology, industrial equipment and services that supports the war, and seek ways to limit Russian profits from energy and diamond sales.
We underline that a just peace cannot be realised, without the complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops and military equipment, and this must be included in any call for peace. (G7 statement)
The Wagner group have made a public statement claiming that they occupy Bakhmut. Ukraine has stated this is false. While Zelenskyy is out of the country, it was obvious they would try and pull some kind of ‘win’ to bolster the Russian propaganda. All we know is that intense fighting continues in Bakhmut.
The US have agreed to allow the Western allies to re-export the American made F-16 fighter jets. The US has also stated it will train Ukrainian pilots to use the jets. The Russians will no doubt consider this as escalation and will plan some kind of damaging response.
Ukraine has agreed that the fighter jets will be used for defensive purposes only and will not be used on sovereign Russian territory
Over the past few months we are now allies and partners have really focused on providing Ukraine with the systems weapon and training. It needs to conduct offensive operations to spring and summer. We have delivered what we promised.
Now we have delivered everything, we said we were going to deliver, so we put the Ukrainians in a position to make progress on the battlefield through the counteroffensive. With which the moment where it is time to look down the road and say what is Ukraine going to need as part of a future force to defend against Russian aggression?
Now we have turned discussion about improving the Ukrainian air force as part of a long-term commitment to Ukraine self defence. How's the training unfolds in the coming months, we will work with allies to determine when planes will be delivered, who will be delivering them and how many. (John Kirby, spokesman for National Security)
Russia has put Karim Ahmad Khan, the International Criminal Court prosecutor on the wanted list, after he issued the ICC was arrest for warrant for Putin over the force deportation of Ukrainian children
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Not only did many African countries abstain and voted against UN resolutions, Russia has been lobbying African and Caribbean countries for years. It's encouraging to hear G-7 leaders call for a FULL Russian exit from Ukraine.