Zelenskyy at Davos
Over the past week or so, I have noticed world leaders stating that they are preparing and expecting the war in Ukraine to extend outside of the country in 3-5 years time. Most believe it will be 3 years, and which is why they are investing in manufacturing ammunition and weapons not only for Ukraine but for themselves. Some are silently ensuring their armies are well trained and there are reserves, and obviously border controls are being tightened.
In Switzerland, another NATO-Ukraine peace summit takes place, and Zelenskyy meets with just about everyone to discuss support and aid for Ukraine, as well as encouraging investment in the country. It was said that the peace summit should include Russia and China, but neither country had representatives show up. They can be invited, but it’s clear they had no interest in attending. From reading things, Zelenskyy is hoping countries choose Ukraine over Russia when the time comes, and is building up an allied force with the security guarantees being discussed with a view to them signed as bilateral memorandums.
The European Commission is considering appointing a Defence Minister to help coordinate defences in particular in the east of the EU. This means that they do consider that there is a threat from Russia, and not all EU countries are part of NATO. What we can see is that countries know that the war will spill out of Ukraine, hence why no one is up in arms about Ukraine targeting Russian military bases in Russia, and that they are silently preparing themselves for that day. We have had border crossings closed with Russia and Belarus, ammunition production has been made a priority in all countries, additional NATO patrols have been made in areas of concern, countries have offered troops to support smaller countries at their border points, and some countries have stated their armies need to be battle ready.
Are we merely waiting for sufficient ammunition and weapons to be produced? Ukraine still has its mobilisation issue, with men filing for divorce and filing to have sole custody of children (which permits them to avoid being drafted as a sole guardian), and other countries who have stated they will no deport Ukrainians back to Ukraine to drafted, stating they should return of their own free will. No much chance of that because they fled in the first place and could have returned if they really wanted to fight.
Day 691 (15 Jan)
Russian propaganda strikes again, this time with billboards saying ‘ Russia’s borders do not end anywhere’ across Russia. World leaders must accept the fact that Russia does not seek peace but to extend its borders to reform the USSR as Putin has stated already
The European External Action Service are conducting an audit of weapons that countries have pledged to send to Ukraine, as many have not been delivered, and some countries are not sending as many weapons as they can. However, it is up to the country as to what they wish to send and countries need to ensure they have adequate equipment. With NATO supplying some weapons, that means some countries can release some of the older weapons in favour of the new deliveries.
Canada has submitted a draft copy of the bilateral security agreement with Ukraine, and will discuss issues further to lead to an agreement similar to the one made with the UK a few days ago.
Estonia has stated it will not force Ukrainian refuges back to Ukraine to be drafted under the mobilisation programme, and Ukraine should ask them to return. Ukraine has asked them to return but there is no incentive to do so, and if they wanted to, then they could have done so already.
The war is now affecting Russians in Russia who are now struggling to access medicines such as antibiotics and hospital care.
The 4th Global Peace Summit was held in Davos, Switzerland on 14 January 2024, with 83 participants. Russia and China were expected to send representatives but did not. The Swiss foreign minister said the talks were a foundation for negotiations, but Russia didn’t seem to be interested in such talks. Israel participated in the talks for the first time.
The UK will increase the number of troops it will provide to NATO in the first half of the year, and will reply 20,000 troops for military exercises.
Day 692 (16 Jan)
Australia decided to dispose the 45 retired Taipan helicopters despite a request from Ukraine to have them. Ukraine is in need of every single bit of machinery it can acquire and pledges are not good enough.
Wagner are still operating in Ukraine as an operative was detained after he was sent to Ukraine on a sabotage mission.
While new legislation on mobilisation is being prepared, Ukraine has passed law that permits a digital database of those who are eligible for military service and how ready prepared they are. One assumed such a database existed already, but it didn’t and it is still open to corruption and cyberattacks.
Bulgaria has said it will produce ammunition for Ukraine with EU support.
Ukraine is devising an educational programme that will teach all Ukrainians how to assemble FPV drones at home. This will help with the production of weapons for Ukraine and seems like an old fashioned way to do things, but don’t forget, when this war began, Ukraine was handing out weapons to citizens who wanted them to defend themselves. The Ukrainian army is not as advanced as other European countries, but with the recent support it is gaining ground with training from other countries such as the US, UK, Canada and Germany.
Ukraine is currently negotiating security agreements with the US, Germany, Italy, France, Canada and Poland, and Romania, similar to the one signed with the UK a few days ago.
Zelenskyy gives a speech at Davos, that covers the history of the war and reminds all what Russia’s and Putin’s goals are and that Russia does not seek peace. He rightly criticises the ‘don’t escalate’ stance most countries adopted at the start of the invasion, and that it was a mistake as it emboldened Russia. This position cost the lives of many Ukrainians.
Fico of Slovakia has supported Orban of Hungary who has stated the €50 billion. of aid to Ukraine needs to be re-evaluated.
Latvia has been creating a drone coalition with 20 other countries to enable Ukraine to have a good supply to defend themselves with.
Day 693 (17 Jan)
France has said they will produce 78 Caesars for Ukraine after Zelenskyy spoke to Macron at Davos. 6 will be paid for by Ukraine, and the other 72 will be funded through other means. Another military aid package was also agreed.
Macron will visit Kyiv in February to finalise the bilateral security guarantees, as he is a figure that has opposed Ukrainian fast track membership to NATO.
Putin propaganda—he claims that Baltic countries are throwing out Russians from heir countries, and that this will lead to escalation. Another threat to try and stop the Baltic states from being independent.
Ukraine has had to allocate reserve funds to purchase ammunition and other essential military equipment due to the fact that the US has run out of funding for the time being. About $20 million from the reserve fund is now having to be used to buy essential equipment for the army at the front line.
Day 694 (18 Jan)
A joint resolution has been adopted to decide if Hungary has violated Article 7.2 of the EU Treaty and could lose their rights to vote. The resolution was supported by 345 MEPs, 104 against and 29 abstaining. The council will decide if Hungary’s voting rights should be suspended due to persistent breaches.
An oil terminal in St Petersburg was the target of a special operation by the SBU, where drones hit the target.
A meeting was held in Paris to discuss an ‘artillery coalition’. Defence Minster Rustem Umierov did not attend for security reasons and joined in via video link.
The World Economic Forum is to open a government technology centre in Kyiv, which indicates that they wish to invest in Kyiv and will not make Russia happy.
The European People's party (EPP) is proposing to create a Defence Commissioner role to improve how defence is coordinated within the EU. One could suggest that this is because they have concerns about the security of the bloc as not all members of the EU all members of NATO.