Day 246 (27 October)
Yesterday, Russia carried out missile drills, a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile was fired from Plesetsk, and a Sineva ballistic missile from the Barents Sea. They reached their intended targets in a remote part of eastern Russia, named the Kura test site. Meanwhile, NATO is carrying out nuclear exercises, called ‘Steadfast Noon’. The exercises will involve 14 countries, I will be carried out over Belgium the UK and the North Sea until this weekend.
It has also been announced that Putin will be giving a speech today on his view of the world. What this will do is give the western idea of what Putin's aims might be, however, we know that Putin says one thing and then does something completely different. At the start of the year, Putin categorically stated he would not invade Ukraine, and reiterated this to Macron and other world leaders. Less than a week after reassuring the world leaders he would not invade Ukraine, the order to invade happened on 24 February 2022.
Therefore, when Russian officials state categorically that they would not use nuclear weapons, going by the previous record of basically lying their assurances mean nothing. This is heightened by the desire to control the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, where they have access to radioactive materials.
There is an element of war fatigue again in the world, where media outlets aren’t covering the war unless something drastic happens. For those in Ukraine, they do not have that luxury of deciding what is news as this is their life now. Longer power cut offs are necessary to prevent blackouts, as the electricity supplies have been halved due to the damage from the Russian attacks.
Recent reports have stated that Russian troops that left Kharkiv last month, revealed that they also left behind documents that detailed how the Russian army was working. It reaffirms difficulties with conscripts leaving, and supply issues with weapons and basic equipment.
The partial mobilisation apparently is continuing until the end of the month in Russia, despite Putin claiming that there were sufficient troops. We also know that most of the recruits were from rural areas because they are seen as easy cannon fodder. In Oryol, a factory that hires a number of Uzbek migrant workers has reported that they have all received call up papers despite being nationals of Uzbekistan. This poses a problem, as these men are not Russian and have been hired legally to work in Russia. If the men fight, then they can be imprisoned by their own country for fighting, and if they do fight, then they are foreign fighters who are fighting for Russia against their will, or the Russians can imprison them. The men have called upon the president, Shavkat Miriyoyev to intervene to assist them.
Israel appears to have been assisting Ukraine in shooting down the Iranian Shahed – 136 drones, which has helped limit the damage being caused by the missile attacks. Apparently Isreal has sent an anti-drone system called the Smart Shooter to help Ukraine.
Russia appears to be making up the rules again, and claims that commercial satellites from the West, especially the US could be considered legitimate military targets if it is deemed they are assisting Ukraine in the war.
In Russian occupied regions of Zaporizhzhia, reports claim that the authorities are ordering checks on mobile phones as part of Putin's martial law decree. This apparently is to ensure that residents do not pass any information on to the Ukrainians, and they close this as military censorship.
To date, there have been 28 Christmas swaps where 987 Ukrainians have been released, but there are many more who are being detained across Russia and Ukraine and who may have been tortured.
The battle to capture Bakhmut continues and is an area that the Russians have sent more troops to in order to hold back the Ukrainian advance. The location of the town is why the Russians or persisting, as it leads to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which would give the Russians a base to capture those cities. The town was attacked at least 8 times in the morning, and were pushed back by the Ukrainians each time, but the Russian seek a symbolic victory by continuing to attack after several humiliating retreats.
During Putin's speech during the Commonwealth of Independent States, his view is that Ukraine has lost its sovereignty. Other Russian politicians reaffirmed that view claiming that Ukraine does not exist as a state and has been occupied by NATO. From this, analysts state that it is unlikely that negotiations will be possible let alone a ceasefire to end the war. Putin has never been interested in negotiations, only the appearance of negotiations to appease the UN and if it would've helped lifted sanctions against the country. He uses the idea of negotiations and peace talks as a show to countries that support Russia that he is being reasonable, whereas in fact he is just playing for time
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