Ukrainian Armed Forces Day and the Anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum
Russia continues to fire missiles aimed at destroying Ukrainian infrastructure
The last few days have seen more missile attacks by Russia, the anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum (the agreement signed 5 December 1994, where Ukraine gave up all nuclear weapons in exchange for protection and security guarantees should there be an attack), which appears to have little worth, and Ukraine appears to have launched missiles to destroy military targets inside of Russia which some might consider escalation.
Day 284 (4 December)
Macron has said that the West needs to offer Russia security guarantees during negotiations. The man is a contradiction, stating that he can talk to Putin to find a diplomatic solution, then to tell the world not to humiliate Russia, and now he states that the West must offer Russia some guarantees.
This means that one of the essential points we must address – as President Putin has always said – is the fear that NATO comes right up to its doors and the deployment of weapons that could threaten Russia. That topic will be part of the topics for peace so we need to prepare what we already to do, how to protect our allies a member states and how to give guarantees to Russia the date it returns to the negotiating table. (Macron)
It is a known fact that Macron is opposed to Ukraine joining NATO or the EU, but supports their desire to retain independence. Why is that? Perhaps he feels too much funding will be used in Ukraine, it will cost the EU more, and because NATO might get drawn into a war that he doesn’t want in his final term as president. I think he would be a useless war minister as he has little experience of warfare, and believes he can talk his way out of anything.
Ukraine has said it will offer Russia security guarantees once a) Russian leaves Ukraine and withdraws it troops b) pays all the costs for damage and to rebuild Ukraine ($600 billion is estimated to date), c) all war criminals are put on trial for their war crimes, and d) Russia must surrender all nuclear weapons. These are all reasonable, and have been stated by other countries and alliances, but Russia has ignored them all, and that is why there are no negotiations as Russia has not wish to discuss or negotiate.
On Russian state television, a Russian former ambassador to NATO (Dmitry Rogozin) stated that Russia can only win if they seize Kyiv. I have always said that Kyiv has been the main target—take the capital and seize Zelenskyy, then they have the whole of Ukraine.
Day 285 (5 December)
There were explosions at two Russian airbases, where no party claimed responsibility for them. One was at Engels airbase in Saratov Oblast, and the other was in Dyagilyaevo near Ryazan. This means that Ukraine may have weapons that can travel over 600km in distance, which is a game changer in this war.
Two people were killed at the Saratov airbase, and one near Ryazan, where two Tu-95 BEAR bombers were hit, and a fuel tank exploded in Ryazan. No party has formally claimed responsibility for the explosions
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The 28th anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum was remembered, but what we can see that it was a failure. The object was for Ukraine to give up nuclear weapons in exchange for political guarantees from the UK, US, and Russia, who would come to Ukraine’s aid should they come under attack.
Zelenskyy has been named the Financial Times Person of the Year 2022.
A Russian missile was found in Briceni in Moldova, near the Ukrainian border.
Putin visited the Kerch Bridge in Crimea to see how the repairs were coming along. The order is to have the bridge repaired by July 2023.
An anonymous French donor has donated a marine drone named Crime et Châtiment (Crime and Punishment by Dostoevsky).
Day 286 (6 December)
There was a prisoner swap with 60 Ukrainian service personnel being returned to Ukraine on Ukraine Armed Forces Day.
Zelenskyy visited troops in Slovyansk and presented awards to the troops. This boost morale and is a message to the world that the Ukrainian army is strong and resilient.
A third Russian airbase has suffered an explosion in Kursk where an oil storage tank exploded
Hungary blocks the EU package of €18 billion to Ukraine in an attempt to force the EU to release funds that they want, but that have been suspended for violations of EU regulations. The EU will find a way to get around the sole veto, and probably will be able to release funding through different channels. Orban has refused to compromise although he gave an indication he would. At this point, many are wondering why Hungary remains a member of the EU and NATO when they alone don’t agree with the positions stated concerning the war in Ukraine. We know that Orban is on good terms with Putin, and does not criticise him which makes one wonder whether these alliances should permit Hungary to remain a member?
Russia has ruled out leaving the Zaporizhzhia power plant in order to create a safety zone as suggested by the IAEA. They have also rejected transferring control to a third party (the IAEA)
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The independent Russian channel, Dozhd, that airs in Latvia has lost its operations license for calling Crimea a part of the Russian Federation. The National Electronic Mass Media Council made this decision to stop Russian propaganda from being distributed.
Ukraine will carry out emergency shutdowns to conserve energy and to stabilise the power grids. Most of these shutdowns will be in Odesa, Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, and Dnipropetrovsk.