Ukrainian Allies Line Up To Offer Security Guarantees
In the newspapers, a report to the UK government stated that if war broke out, the UK would have insufficient troops to adequately defend the country. In fact, many countries have cut back on army numbers with enough to mount a defence, but now faced with a potential world war, many have realised the cutbacks might leave their countries vulnerable.
Is this now a waiting game? Several of the allied countries have said they are about to finalise their security guarantees with Ukraine, and while great in principle, who would enforce the agreement? These are based on mutual trust and probably serve as a deterrent to Russia because the guarantees only apply after it is assumed Ukraine will win this war.
Ukraine has its own issues as it tries to pass a new mobilisation bill in an attempt to gain more soldiers. The issue here is that if there is a way to dodge the draft, then men would have found it and used it, or left the country with no intention of returning. The new law suggests fixed terms to be in place, which in an ideal world would work if you had enough men to rotate, and now Zelenskyy has fired the Commander in chief of the Ukrainian Army, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi after months of speculation. Oleksandr Syrsky, takes over after working in
Day 711 (4 Feb)
Zelenskyy drafts another bill to extend mobilisation and martial law. It gets passed and is extend until 14 May 2024, but the mobilisation plan has been a failure. A new law on mobilisation has still not been agreed.
Zelenskyy visits troops in Zaporizhzia near Robotyne. Quite frankly, these visits while they are to boost morale, they are getting tiresome as it takes soldiers away from their duties (and he creates a security risk), but at least Zelenskyy gets to see how the war is faring in real time.
Russia has a new programme of resettlement, and has planned to have citizens of Russia, Belarus and Kakakstan move to the occupied regions in Zaporizhzia.
An attempt by the Russians to breach the borders in northern Ukraine (Sumy) took place and lasted for 1.5 hours until the sabotage party gave up and left.
Russia is ‘re-educating’ captured Ukrainian children telling them that they will never be allowed back in Ukraine.
Russia banned Ecuadorian banana imports due to Ecuador exchanging scrap metal for $200 million of new equipment from the US. The scrap metal will be old weapons that will be sent to Ukraine.
Japan will host a conference to support Ukraine’s economic recovery. This will be held later this month with over 100 businesses that have planned to attend.
Day 712 (5 Feb)
Russian convicts will no longer receive pardons if they fight in the army. They now must fight until the end as previous convicts had a better deal than those who signed up as conscripts. Under Prigozhin’s recruitment, the convicts fought for 6 months and then were given a pardon and could return home. Most are assigned to Storm V and are sent to the front line (with little chance of survival), and even those with a yearly contract will not be able to leave as the contracts will automatically be renewed. With no pardons on the table, Putin has offered a conditional release if they survive, which means if they commit another crime they will have to serve out their sentence along with any new time to be served.
France is to summon the Russian ambassador in regards to the killing of 2 French humanitarian workers last week, and the use of anti-French disinformation.
For what it is worth, a 13th package of sanctions in the EU are to be announced, but will not offer anything controversial in a bid to get the package passed quickly.
The Portuguese Foreign Minister and Education Minister arrived in Kyiv for a 2 day visit. Discussions on security guarantees were held as well as paying their respects to the dead.
Day 713 (6 Feb)
The Finnish company, Nammo Lapua that produces ammunition is increasing production due to the war in Ukraine.
More corruption—the SBU say they have uncovered a FSB network that included Ukrainian officials both past and present. 5 people were detained and they included people from the Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) and Defence Intelligence Service of Ukraine (HUR).
In the UK, the government is concerned that there are insufficient trained army reserves to defend the country if war breaks out. These concerns were outlined in a report released on 4 February 2024.
Day 714 (7 Feb)
Several countries have announced they they have either started or are finalising security agreements with Ukraine. Estonia, and Denmark are the latest following announcements from Canada and Germany who state they are close to finalising the agreements.
Finland has extended their border closures with Russia for another 2 months due to an increase of migrants entering Russia and then trying to get into Europe.
The next Ramstein meeting will take place on 14 February 2024, and will be followed by a meeting of NATO’s defence ministers in Brussels.
Latvia has reintroduced national service as a deterrent due to a possible Russian invasion. All men 18-27 years of age will have to serve a year in the army even if they live abroad, and failure to do so will result in fines or imprisonment. Exceptions will be made for single parents, those with dual nationality that have served in the army, and those with health issues.
Russia is recruiting mercenaries from Syria, who are issued Russian passports after training before being mobilised.
Ukraine was attacked in six regions including Kyiv where Josep Borrell,
High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy was visiting and he had to take cover in an air raid shelter.
On the coast of Lithuania, a Russian sonar was discovered. These are used to detect submarines and to collect intelligence.
Another mobilisation draft has been submitted, and the issue appears to be that it needs to be in line with the Human Rights agreements. Other countries don’t have this issue, but then again there are not up against Russia right now, and the government wishes to lower the age of conscription and to have fixed service periods, along with harsh penalties for those who do not show up for conscription.
In Kharkiv, 2 rockets that landed in the territory are said to have originated from North Korea. While Nort Korea denies assisting Russia, it is believed the quid pro quo is Russia assisting North Korea with unblocking frozen assets with various international financial institutions.
The former Wagner commander who sought asylum in Norway has had his request denied.
Baykar has begun building a factory in Kyiv to manufacture drones for Ukraine, with production set to start in 2025. It will employ about 500 people and will produce the TB2 of TB3 drones.
A Chinese bank (Chouzhou Commercial Bank) has chosen to halt operations in Russia an Belarus due to payment issues due to Western sanctions.
Day 715 (8 Feb)
After months of speculation, Zelenskyy fires the Commander in chief of the Ukrainian Army, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi who is replaced by Oleksandr Syrsky. He cites that a new direction is needed in the war, but the fact is that Ukraine needs more trained soldiers and more advanced weapons and they have neither.
Russian banks are evading sanctions by trading in gold with the UAE and Turkey.
The US Senate has blocked the bill that would have included aid for Ukraine again. This only benefits Russia, and one must consider that there may have been Russian interference.
At present, it is estimated that rebuilding Ukraine will cost $410 billion. Ukraine has a DREAM Project, that aims to be an umbrella to manage all the projects.
The former Fox News reader, Tucker Carlson who is known for right wing propaganda has been to Russia to interview Putin. Requests from other journalists to interview Putin had been declined. The interview will be aired later today (8 Feb 2024).
Putin’s main challenger, Boris Nadezhdin has been refused a place to run for election. Allegedly, 15% of the signatures submitted on his candidate application were ‘flawed’. 100,000 signatures are needed and he had 105,000, but the Central Election Commisions’s claim that 9,000 were invalid leaving him with less than the 100,000 required (95,587 in total) and if more than 5% of signatures are invalid then the candidate cannot be registered on the ballot. The other candidates all support the Kremlin, while Nadezhdin has spoken out against the war.