Ukraine Struggles With Mobilisation
Aid from the allies continues but ammunition targets will not be met
We are now in the winter months, where Russia will probably launch a concentrated attack on energy infrastructure and it is the Ukrainian citizens who will suffer the most. Ukraine has admitted there has been an issue with mobilisation with 20,000 Ukrainian men fleeing the country to escape having to fight rather than to defend their country. They had to admit it after neighbouring countries took them and registered them for asylum, and also the numerous cases of corruption where medical papers were falsified so that the men didn’t have to serve and could leave Ukraine and return.
The irony is that there are others around the world willing to fight for Ukraine, while a percentage of men in Ukraine won’t fight to defend their country because they want their own life. It’s slightly different in Russia because the men would fight to defend their country, but many do not consider the war to be defending the country but is an attack on Ukraine and therefore do not wish to fight. This is why I said NATO troops will probably have to get involved at some point as is Ukraine runs out of soldiers, then no amount of weapons are of use with no one to use them.
With Hungary and now Slovakia opposing Ukraine’s application to join the EU, one wonders how much influence Russia propaganda has had on these two countries and in particular their current leaders? History will wonder why these two countries were even permitted to remain in the EU and NATO when they oppose what the EU and NATO positions are in terms of supporting Ukraine. We are left looking at two entities who have little control over their members and their policies, and who appear weak and afraid of Russia.
Like many people, I do feel helpless knowing more Ukrainians will suffer and perhaps die, but money isn’t enough to end this war. IMHO, the war can only end if Russia is defeated and is forced to leave Ukraine, or if Russia succeeds in occupying Ukraine. There can be no in-between because Russia will continue to attack Ukraine until it occupies and controls the country.
Day 628 (13 Nov)
Hungary has stated it will not support talks of Ukrainian ascension to the EU until there are ‘strategic discussions’, and has asked for a review of the EU position on Ukraine’s bid to join the EU.
The US has pledged $1 million of funding to assist with the investigation of Russian aggression against Ukraine. This is about gathering evidence at the International Centre for the Prosecution of the Crime of Aggression Against Ukraine at The Hague, where prosecutors need evidence in order to charge Russia for war crimes.
Corruption and propaganda in Germany, A German journalist and filmmaker, Hubert Seipel was discovered to have been paid $660k by the Kremlin to disseminate Russian. propaganda. The money led back to an oligarch with financial ties to Putin’s personal finances.
More corruption in Ukraine. According to the SBU, it is investigating over 8000 cases of suspected treason. Unfortunately, this kind of news gives Hungary and Slovakia leverage over suspending EU ascension talks.
Another failure of sanctions. Reports state that more than 1,300 luxury cars had entered Russia and included Land Rovers Mercedes-Benz , and Porsches since the ban on 15 March 2022. What is the point of sanctions if they don’t work as with this kind of wealth, these people know that they can buy ‘people’ and that’s why they laugh at sanctions.
Day 629 (14 Nov)
Denmark is the first donor to the UN Ukraine Community Recovery Fund. This will focus on rebuilding locally and to help economic development. This is all well and good, but the war continues and may get worse, and so while this is important, the focus should be on getting Russia out of Ukraine for good.
Slovakia tells NATO that they are terminating Ukrainian military aid, but will focus on humanitarian and support initiatives for civilians instead and will supply items such as demining machines. This is similar to Hungary, except Hungary has never offered or supplied any military aid, and is exactly what Russia wants—to starve Ukraine of any military aid.
The EU is providing €110 million in humanitarian aid to help Ukrainians through the winter.
More failures of sanctions. Are you has reported that at least 100 ships and 30 countries have been assisting Russia to violate sanctions which includes exporting Russian oil.
Russia is reportedly, going to send drug and alcohol abuses to the front line in order to discipline them. It also looks as if Russia considers them as Canon fodder and not as useful citizens that are expendable.
The target to deliver 1 million artillery shells by spring, 20,24 will not be met according to Ukraine's foreign minister, due to bureaucracy in the European defence industry. What he means is there is too much red tape and not enough action or production. It was clear that NATO supplies were being used up faster than they could be replenished and that while there was a plan to produce more, that has been bogged down by France in particular who insists the contracts must stay within the EU, and that France should have a percentage of the contracts. In the end, it is Ukraine that suffers with no ammunition and other NATO countries with no reserves.
Russia is planning to build a naval base in Abkhazia, which is a Russian occupied area in Georgia. Stoltenberg, for NATO has stated this is unacceptable. However, there is little his words will do to deter the Russians. With Russia, effectively, controlling Belarus, and now setting up bases in Libya, and now Georgia, is clear that Russia is not seeking only to occupy Ukraine, but also parts of Europe.
Day 630 (15 Nov)
Russia has been excluded from the UNESCO executive board, and follows Russia being excluded from the ICJ earlier this month (9 November), as institutions are freezing Russia out of the international community.
The Russian Technological University in Moscow has imported, high-tech drone detectors from Canada, despite sanctions. This makes a mockery of sanctions, because Russia has been able to bypass them and have exploited loopholes, and this was the EU's only response when the war first broke out, and they expected the sanctions to end the war. They were foolhardy to believe that and the fact that a university in Moscow was able to import sanctioned technology that can be used in warfare 18 months into the war just goes to show that sanctions are actually useless.
Czechia has frozen all Russian state assets, and hopefully other countries will follow suit. While some countries have stated that the interest could be given to the Ukrainian recovery fund, there is a huge push for these frozen assets to be used to rebuild Ukraine.
Denmark is considering blocking Russian oil tankers that might cross through its waters. This could include using inspections where are some oil tankers operating without western insurance. This would assist in the sanctions of Russian oil where imports are slipping through the net despite sanctions.
A new EU sanctions package is being planned. The 12th one is considering targeting diamonds and to ban exports on dual use goods that could be used for military purposes against Ukraine. To be frank the latter should've been done from the beginning and why it's taken so long it's just careless of the EU not to have expected Russia to have planned ways to circumvent sanctions. Russia had done it before, and they have been getting away with it for the last 18 months which is why they can still finance the war.
The statue of Alexander Pushkin, that once stood in central Kyiv, has been dismantled. I understand why they want to remove anything that's Russian, but Pushkin was an important writer who just happened to be Russian. Removing all things Russian is a statement that Ukraine does not want anything Russian left in the country down to a street name or a statute of a Russian.
Day 631 (16 Nov)
Ukraine is struggling with military mobilisation, due to low public morale, motivation, outdated recruiting models, and loopholes in legislation that have been exploited by those seeking to dodge the draft. Men have been able to leave the country without being stopped, and others have paid for false papers to state they are medically unfit. This is no surprise as I recall seeing young men dancing and going out in Kyiv after the attacks and stating they are getting back to normal when they couldn’t all be medically unfit to fight—they just don’t want to fight, but want others to fight for their liberty.
Reports claim that a company that supplies oil to the US Department of Defense had a Russian origin that was concealed in order to circumvent sanctions. Motor Oil Hellas, a Greek refinery has been buying oil from Russia despite an embargo.
Switzerland has stated it supports the creation of a special tribunal for the investigation into Russia's crime of aggression against Ukraine.
Finland has decided to close four out their nine border crossings with Russia due to travel documents being incomplete and creating a high risk of migrants from the Middle East and Africa. This will take effect from 18 November 2023 until February 2024. Russia has responded by stating Finland was making a big mistake, and is destroying bilateral relations between the countries.
Finland has chosen the pass of confrontation with Russia. From the Kremlin's point of view, this is a big mistake (Dimitry Peskov)
David Cameron, the new Foreign Secretary arrived in Kyiv to meet with Zelenskyy. At least he has some experience on international matters, but that’s about it so far.
Reports claim that Kirill Logvinov, a top EU diplomat is a Russian intelligence agent and that everyone knows this, yet he is permitted to roam freely around Brussels. He apparently hosts parties and spreads anti-Ukrainian propaganda.
The pope has donated over $100,000 to help Ukrainian refugees. This was done via the organisation Caritas in Lithuania, who assist Ukrainians, who fled the country to escape the war.
Day 632 (17 Nov)
The EU is discussing and working on security commitments for Ukraine, and will present its proposals to Ukraine in December. Somehow, I think Hungary and Slovakia will be the stumbling blocks in the talks, and hopefully the EU will realise that these countries under the present leadership are not in line with the EU values, and that action should be taken if the EU was to remain a credible entity.
The Netherlands has pledged €2 billion in 2024 to supply military support to Ukraine. Finland has also sent another military package, the 20th, which is worth about €100 million. This comes at a time where the US has paused the military aid packages due to domestic issues to prevent a government shutdown and West Suffolk here has halted all military aid. Therefore it is crucial that other allied countries maintain the momentum in supporting Ukraine with military aid.
The council of Europe development bank has approved $100 million loan to Ukraine to assist with rebuilding essential medical infrastructure that has been damaged during the war. The problem is that attacks on hospitals continues, so whilst we are building is essential how long these structures will remain standing is another question.
Zelenskyy has stated that intelligence has revealed a Russian backed coup to try to remove him from power. This kind of news is not unexpected and that’s why all the Ukrainians who are pro-Russian must be scrutinised as there are too many traitors who are happy to betray their country for money. If they love Russia so much, they should go and live there instead. The destabilisation coup was called ‘Maidan 3’ aimed to cause chaos among the people and to create discontent.
Zelenskyy has fired the deputy head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Oleksandr Tarasovsky who has been in the post since January 2022. No reason was given.
Germany and Ukraine have begun bilateral negotiations on security guarantees that had been presented at the Vilnius NATO summit, and that was part of the G7 proposals.
Poland has deployed a tank battalion to be stationed near its border with Belarus. It seems that Poland feels it must take measures to avoid any infiltration by the Russians from Belarus, and that is a wise move as prevention is better than cure.
Reports claimed that 20,000 Ukrainian men have illegally cross borders out of Ukraine since February 2022 to avoid mobilisation. Men have arrived in Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland and Moldova, to escape having to fight in the war. It is possible some of them will not be able to return to Ukraine as they broke the law, but that is why Ukraine might be low on soldiers as the number does not include those who have dodged their duty with false medical papers.
Day 633 (18 Nov)
Russia has been accused of halting POW exchanges. If the Russians have nothing to gain, then they won’t participate.
An official Russian delegation has visited North Korea where it has been reported discussions on supplying natural resources were held.
Norway has been reported to have scrambled fighter jets as Russian planes were flying too close to NATO airspace.
Since the war in the Middle East began, supplies of ammunition to Ukraine have decreased which was expected.
A dry port for grain exports is to be created in Zakarpattia called the Horonda Platform. This is close to the border with Slovakia and Hungary and will provide warehouses and containers for grain to be exported across via land.