Ukraine Adapts Due To Less Aid From Allies
Russia will take advantage of this, yet many saw this as inevitable
I’ve been watching the war since it began, and it was clear to me that NATO and other countries did not want to get involved and assumed this was another ‘Crimea’. Only the UK under Johnson, and Poland and the Baltic states offered immediate support while others preferred to try and talk Putin down. We must remember that it took 6 weeks before NATO made any statement and it was months before France and Germany offered anything more than humanitarian aid and some helmets.
The recent US bill for $60 billion in aid has not been passed and Hungary has blocked the EU support package of €50 billion that Ukraine needs. The EU has said it will not leave Ukraine stranded, but clearly the Hungarian issue needs to be addressed. I have not seen any Hungarians back Orban’s rejections, and he has also stated that Ukraine cannot win the war and must cede land for peace. His statement does not follow the positions of wither the EU or NATO, where Hungary is a member of both alliances and is supposed to agree with their official positions.
Ukraine has been striking business deals for ammunition and weapons to be built in Ukraine. This means that the weapons don’t have to be transported and risk being intercepted and damaged en route, and also that Ukraine will not be bound by restrictions as to where and how the weapons can be used. Most allies have supplied weapons on the provision that they are not used on Russian soil. In order to disable Russian troops, Ukraine must attack their ammunition supplies and logistics routes and that means some weapons must be used inside Russia, before they arrive into Ukraine.
As expected, aid for Ukraine is decreasing as Russia wanted and that means Ukraine must make the most of what weapons it has, and I may mean some offensive plans will have to be scaled back. While the Ukrainian counteroffensive was ambitious, it wasn’t a failure but they did what they could with what weapons they had. Don’t forget, many countries had pledged weapons to be delivered at a later date, but often it was too late and some tanks arrived damaged. Basically, Ukraine was given weapons that were surplus and old, and only now are they receiving newer technology that gives them a chance against Russia.
An issue I have is this expectation that Ukraine will win, and they must win, but there is an attitude that they will win because so many democratic countries support Ukraine. That is not enough as world leaders have stalled aid due to political reasons and elections, and Ukraine can’t win without up to date weapons. I have said before, Ukraine does not have enough weapons and that is backed by the fact they are having to pull back on some missions due to lack of weapons, and Ukraine doesn’t have enough soldiers. The ones who have been fighting are exhausted and mobilisation doesn’t seem to have worked. There is an ammunition shortage across the globe already and behind closed doors more is being produced.
Day 660 (15 Dec)
Putin held his annual four hour press conference (Results of the Year with Vladimir Putin) that he skipped last year, and stated that the war objectives remain the same, and peace with Ukraine will only happen when Russia achieves its goals. One can take that to mean Russia has no interest in peace talks until it occupies all of Ukraine. During the session, Putin boasted about economic growth despite sanctions and military achievements.
Russia will be allocated $11 billion a year to integrate the occupied regions in Ukraine to become Russian. Reports claim that these monies will fund the development of the occupied regions to transform them into Russian territories. Clearly people can see that Russia is aiming to occupy Ukraine under the guise of saving them from Nazism.
Stoltenberg for NATO also held a press conference at NATO HQ in Brussels, stating that if Putin wins, ‘then there is a risk that his aggression will not end there.’ No kidding—it’s obvious that Russia would seek to occupy other former Soviet states as he has already stated that intention.
The media were rejoicing in the news that the EU will open ascension membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova, while giving Georgia candidate status. I really didn’t expect anything less, while Orban of Hungary was told to go and take a coffee break while the EU leaders were voting on the issue so that he could not veto it and talks began without him. He complied, but we all know that Moldova needs protection from Russia too.
Orban vetoed the €50 billion in aid for Ukraine, and another meeting will be held in January to hold another vote. Other leaders such as Macron have been trying to persuade Orban, but it is obvious that he supports the Kremlin and not the interests of Europe. Some may say he is protecting Hungary, but that’s what NATO is for and to have that protection means you must agree to what the alliance has decided.
Zelenskyy had not been invited to the EU summit due to tensions with Orban of Hungary, but did make a video address warning against indecision
He instead visited a US Army Command base in Wiesbaden, Germany.
It's very important that Europe doesn't fall back into indecision today. Nobody wants Europe to be seen as untrustworthy or as unable to take decisions it prepared itself. (Zelenskyy)
Since the US aid of $60 billion has not been passed, Ukraine is focusing on domestic production of weapons and ammunitions. With the aid of allied countries and their partner companies, several will set up factories in Ukraine to assist with the production of weapons.
in Keretsky village in Zakarpattia, a council member entered the room and there three grenades during a meeting. At least one person was killed and at least 26 people were injured. Having watched the video, the man entered the room, stood at the door blocking it and them took out grenades from his pockets and threw them in the room. Most people sat there and didn't move, not knowing what was going on. This shows how deep rooted corruption is and that Russia has planted people in key areas for decades.
The man is believed to be Sehii Batryn, and has been charged with terrorism.
Day 661 (16 Dec)
Bulgaria, Turkey and Romania will sign a Black Sea Mine Clearance coalition in January.
Putin officially nominated as a presidential candidate. Plans to extend the voting to the occupied regions in Ukraine will serve as propaganda and increase the numbers of voters. The Kremlin as said to be spending $11 million on setting up the elections in the occupied areas in order to try and claim that they are officially Russian territories. Those who chose to remain are being forced to be Russian citizens and to vote.
Analysts are discussing how long Ukraine will survive without the US $60 billion aid package. Most agree that Ukraine would be defeated by summer with ethnic cleansing and more Ukrainian settlements being destroyed. At present, the Republicans are holding up the bill citing that funds for domestic borders with Mexico are more important. This is also an election year where all politicians are keen to look as if they are listening to the electorate, where there are some who disagree with giving Ukraine aid.
Day 662 (17 Dec)
Putin denies any plans to attack NATO, stating that Russia has no interest in fighting with NATO. However, he has said that about other neighbouring states and attacked them, and Finland has now been given a warning since they joined NATO after a speedy application.
Hungary is using blackmail tactics and says it will veto Bulgaria’s Schengen bid unless it cancels Russia’s transit gas tax. From this is it clear that Orban is a Putin puppet, and Bulgaria has agreed to suspend the tax for the time being as they seek to be part of Schengen.
Secret recording devices were discovered in offices that were used by General Zaluzhnyi’s office and staff. They were removed, but they were made from materials that cannot identify where they came from.
Russia is demolishing a site in Mariupol that was used as a torture chamber on order to destroy evidence of war crimes.
Russia is being isolated again as the Danube Commission strips them of membership due to Russia targeting ports on the Danube. Russia must leave by 29 February 2024.
Day 663 (18 Dec)
Russia plans to seize eastern Ukraine by 2026, and expects to occupy Donetsk and Luhansk by 2024, followed by Kharkiv and Dnipro according to German intelligence.
A fugitive called Jan Marsalek, who was a Wirecard executive has been accused of assisting Russian operatives for more than a decade by funnelling money to Middle East and African war zones. This includes assisting on transactions for the Wagner group and collecting sensitive data from clients that were passed to Russian agents.
Ukraine scales back frontline offensive due to dwindling supplies from the allied countries. The army is forced to redistribute arms and ammunition and a change in tactics has been required to adjust to the shortfall of promised supplies. While the Baltic states and Scandinavia continue to offer support, it is the US support that Ukraine needs, and the $60 billion in aid has not been passed due to political issues. This is why Finland had to concede in the Winter War, because the allies were too busy arguing amongst themselves. History repeats itself and humanity fails to learn again.
The political players who are holding back the aid (Republicans and Orban of Hungary) are the ones who are controlling the war and Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. This is what Putin has been waiting for, for Ukrainian aid to waver and his pal Orban appears to have assisted.
The EU has adopted a 12th round of sanctions which includes diamond imports. Many have said these tighter restrictions should have been in place earlier as Russia has managed to circumvent sanctions since the start having anticipated them already.
Another coalition between Lithuania, Sweden and Canada called the Common Interest Group for Ukraine (CIG4U) that will focus on developing road and railway transportation in Ukraine.
Day 664 (19 Dec)
The EU will discuss the €50 billion aid package on 1 February 2024 in a special summit, by which time it is hoped the US will have passed the bill for $60 billion for aid in Ukraine.
Germany has signed an agreement to have a permanent deployment of German troops in Lithuania. It seems Lithuania is concerned about Russian troops and infiltration and this is a wise move.
Latvia is considering reporting more than 1000 Russians, for failing to have necessary residency requirements and paperwork. This appears to be a bid to reduce the risk of Russian agents in the country who could then move around freely in the EU countries.
The UK is reported to be signing a 10 year pact with Ukraine as a security guarantee called the Memorandum of Understanding to keep Kyiv in the fight against Russia in the Black Sea.
The US will run out of funds on 30th December to send Ukraine arms and equipment unless Congress passes additional funding through the suspended bill.