UK and Germany To Conduct Air Policing Exercises In Estonia
Russia fails to support the mercenary Wagner group with ammunition
Day 376 (6 March)
The mercenary Wagner group appears to be in dispute with the Kremlin, after requesting ammunition and not receiving any. The Wagner group is the main reason why the Ukrainian troops are struggling to defend Bakhmut. The leader of the Wagner group (Prigozhin) has claimed that the Kremlin wasn’t to use them as scapegoats if they lose the war in Ukraine.
Recent tensions on the Ukrainian side have also been reported, where the head of the UA forces (Zaluzhny) commanding the troops has advised for a partial withdrawal, while Zelenskyy favours maintaining the defence line. To date, the latter is the official line, although many military strategists say a partial withdrawal is practical while waiting for tanks and other equipment to arrive. From Zelesnkyy’s point of view, it is key not to permit Russians to use a withdrawal as propaganda, so perhaps the official line is to defend while withdrawing some troops to be rotated
.
Reports claim that in Bakhmut, there was arm-to-arm combat in the streets between the two sides, where it was said that shovels had been used as a weapon. If true, then both sides are struggling to replenish their supplies of weapons and are resorting to old tactics of fighting one-on-one.
Zelenskyy has been firing more staff and replacing them to ensure corruption is eradicated, an essential step for EU membership. The deputy head of the SBU, Oleksandr Yakushev, plus two heads of the SBU in other regions, and two managers were fired.
The Russians who killed civilians in Irpin have been identified. Some of the victims were running aid for an animal shelter when they were shot at by the Russians as they tried to escape in their car. Around 10 cars were shot at randomly, leading to the death of 9 people.
The UK and Germany are planning to conduct joint NATO air exercises in Estonia. This can be seen as NATO getting ready to defend their territory and show the Russians that NATO will be watching their every move and will react accordingly. Estonia is another potential Russian target.
Apparently, Scholz has said that Ukraine will be given security guarantees after the war. However, the only security guarantee that will work is NATO membership as we can see other treaties and guarantees have not worked, in particular the Budapest Memorandum.
Scholz also stated that Russia must withdraw its troops before peace talks can begin.
The Russians shot and killed a prisoner of war who was videoed saying ‘ Glory to Ukraine’. Calls for the ICC to investigate the war crime have been made by the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dymtro Kuleba. He was named as Tymofiy Shadura, of the 30th Separate Mechanised, Brigade, who has been missing since 3 February 2023. However, until the body is returned there is no formal identification.
There are calls to half the $60 oil cap to $30 by the Estonian Foreign Minister, Reinsalu. The current cap is ineffective as it is only $20 less than the average price per barrel.
Report claims that Russian ships with military equipment entered the Black Sea, and travelled through Turkish waterways between the Mediterranean and Black Seas to equip the Russian warships. The M3 Sparta IV, was allegedly carrying military vehicles to the warships in the Black Sea.
Day 377 (7 March)
The battle for Bakhmut continues as more troops are sent to the region. One of the issues is that 4,000 people are still in Bakhmut and who refuse to be evacuated. The Ukrainians government has passed legislation to permit the mandatory evacuation of children from combat zones, where parents have no option but to comply. This is a good step, but only applies to Bakhmut and areas in Donetsk, where the child will be evacuated with a parent or a legal guardian. If the parents won’t do the right thing for the child, then the state will.
In Dnipropetrovsk, the governor has asked civilians to return the weapons they had been issued with within the next 10 days, stating that the situation was now stable. Perhaps the army needs to weapons because the situation might be ‘stable’ but could turn at any moment.
Another prisoner swap took place where 126 men and 4 women were returned to Ukraine, many with serious injuries.
Ukraine has its best pilots ready to be trained on western aircraft, and await any country that offers to train them.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative is being renegotiated online, but Kyiv has not spoken to Moscow since the Black Sea blockade. The initiative lasted a couple of months before Russia started the change the rules, and then stalled things with slow inspections causing a backlog. I can’t see why Russia would cooperate given that they have been dragging their feet for the last couple of months.