Trump's Administration Says 'No' To Ukraine And NATO Membership

The new administration gives Putin what he wants

When I heard that 47% of Ukrainians said they had faith in Trump ending the war quickly, I thought either it must be propaganda or many Ukrainians aren’t that bright. Then, Zelenskyy went on to say the same. He probably feels rather stupid now as Trump has declared he is taking control of the peace talks and will talk to Russia (Putin) and has done ahead of talking to Ukraine.

The US then publicly stated that:

• They will not support NATO membership for Ukraine.

• The US will not supply peace troops.

• That Ukraine cannot hope to regain the borders of the country as of 1991.

• Ukraine must compensate the US for the money given by way of mining rights for natural and rare earth elements.

Zelenskyy has had no choice but to essentially give up some of the mining rights he thought for continued aid, but Trump has said it is to repay the $350 billion in aid that have been given.

No wonder Putin is smiling and happy to speak to Trump as Trump is essentially giving him what he wants. Putin doesn’t want Ukraine in NATO, and he doesn’t want to give back the occupied territory either, both which were issues Ukraine said it won’t budge on if peace talks take place.

What we have here is a dangerous Neville Chamberlain situation where appeasement leads to the ‘end of the war’ but in fact led to a far more dangerous war because the aggressor got what they wanted. This puts the pressure on Europe to do more, but it becomes difficult when Hungary and Slovakia are pro-Kremlin. There are no guarantees that Russia won’t invade Ukraine again in this situation, especially if they take control of parts of Ukraine that is recognised by the US and the UN.

From the outside, the future of Ukraine has been in the hands of the US, with the Republican majority in Congress stopping funding, and now Trump halting USAID and demanding some compensation for assisting Ukraine. Now we can see that Trump is deciding on the peace talks, but NATO and other world leaders have criticised him stating that Ukraine needs to be part of the talks. In fact, the US should not be having peace talks without Ukraine’s permission.

Now we are seeking Zelenskyy, as weak as his previous supporters such as Johnson have been voted out and that is the problem when governments change hands. The security guarantees that Ukraine secured are worthless if the new government doesn’t agree with them.

In an ideal world, Russia would be forced to leave Ukraine and the occupied areas liberated, but it would take NATO forces to do that as the Ukrainian army doesn’t have the manpower, weapons, or the skills to do that. The best that Ukraine can do is hold off the Russians from occupying more land, and at times they achieve that, but often they have failed as more land is seized at a slower rate.

Rather than lower the conscription age that Ukraine should have done 2 years ago at least, they have set up a new scheme to ‘bribe’ 18-24 year olds to train for a year with benefits such as housing, free education, and money. The problem is most that don’t want to fight will have left Ukraine already, and then there is the issue of it being unfair to those who volunteered already not to have those benefits. It’s a little too late for this action, the same as they were too late to react when Russian invaded Ukraine. The signs were there but they failed to act, partly due to corruption within the government and officials in the local areas, but from this we can see that the invasion had been planned for many years while Ukraine had not been prepared at all.

Things are messy for Ukraine as they stupidly expected Trump to save them. Instead, he is taking away their mineral resources, and won’t support their NATO membership which is the only guarantee that Russia will not invade again. Can Trump be trusted as he is pushing for Russia to be included in the international platform again and to join the G8. That would be a disaster as the G7 agreed that Russian frozen assets could be used to rebuild Ukraine. Allowing Russia to be back in the G8 would see that end, and those frozen assets are essential to the reconstruction of Ukraine.

What will it take then to help Ukraine achieve its aims? NATO needs to be stronger and even though the US pays a large part of the NATO budget, it shouldn’t mean that it can dictate what happens. The US now wants Europe to buy US weapons for Ukraine as a way to ‘pay back’ the US and to increase their contributions to the war.

We can also look at it this way, the US voters determined the fate of Ukraine with their votes, while others blame the Democrats for a poor candidate. Each Republican vote led to the ‘fall’ of Ukraine as in all honesty it doesn’t look good for Ukraine. They are going to be forced to cede territory, and have already given in principle the US mining rights as compensation for helping them in the war. Perhaps Zelenskyy should focus less on dismissing staff to save face and then giving them other jobs, less handing out of medals, fewer trips to build up business deals when there is no guarantee that Ukraine will win, and to accept that the conscription age needs to be lowered so that Ukraine can survive as an independent country?

The question is, should what Trump believes matter when it is Ukraine’s decision? Perhaps the previous administration was too weak and should have stated, lower the conscription age or no weapons? Once Trump said no weapons without mining rights, Zelenskyy agreed. Should it matter what Trump wants? Unless the war carries on beyond the Trump administration then it might unless Europe starts paying more for weapons to aid Ukraine.

Day 1081 (9 Feb)

• Ukraine is to launch ‘Drone Line’ a project to help on the battlefield by expanding the use of drones on the ground.

• Russian soldiers that are injured in war have been receiving treatment in hospitals in North Korea, thus affirming that North Korea is a Russian partner in the war.

Day 1082 (10 Feb)

• The National Security Advisor for the US, Mike waltz said that the US needs to recoup those costs, referring to the amount of money spent on Ukrainian support and weapons. Basically, Ukraine must pay back money for the support the US has provided if they want any further support. Trump has said he wants $500 billion worth of rare earth and minerals as compensation.

  And that is going to be a partnership with the Ukrainians in terms of their rare earths, their natural resources and their oil and gas and also buying ours.

• Ukraine is offering 1 year special contracts for recruited volunteers age 18 to 24 which would include a high annual salary, free education, and interest free mortgage rates. This has been met with anger from other soldiers who don’t get these benefits, and also what’s the point if there is no free Ukraine left? Most of the men who don’t want to fight have left Ukraine by hook or by crook, and others have papers saying they are not medically fit to serve.

Day 1083 (11 Feb)

• US Republican congressman Joe Wilson is planning to introduce the Freedom First Lend-Lease act to Congress, as the previous program was not reintroduced in 2024. However, since Ukraine is going to agree to mining rights as payment for equipment, the question is whether this would be in addition to costs, and whether there will be conditions on what equipment will be leased.

• Trump said in an interview that Ukraine may be Russian one day, suggesting that territorial integrity is not important to him.

• More Russian propaganda as Russia claims that a significant part of Ukraine wants to become part of Russia and that it is already happening.

• Ukraine strikes another oil depot in Russia, this time in Saratov.

• Russia frees a US teacher, Marc Fogel in an exchange deal with the US.

Day 1084 (12 Feb)

• A Ramstein meeting is held in Brussels and UK chairs the meeting due to the change in the US administration who have a different approach to support for Ukraine

  

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• Trump declares that he has spoken to Putin on peace talks, and afterwards called Zelenskyy about peace talks. It should have been the other way round, and Trump is criticised for stating that the US and Russia will hold peace talks and doesn’t mention Ukraine until Zelenskyy says Ukraine has to be included.

• Hegseth, the new Secretary of Defense in the US has stated they they will not support Ukraine’s membership in NATO, will not provide peace keeping troops, and said Ukraine returning to its 1991 borders is unrealistic. He also stated that it is not a concession to Putin, but it is as Russia is the state that has illegally annexed those territories.

  The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome for a negotiated settlement.

  We must start by recognising that returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective. Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering.

  If these troops are deployed as peacekeepers to Ukraine at any point, they should be deployed as part of a non-NATO mission and they should not be covered under article 5.

  Safeguarding European security must be an imperative for European members of NATO. Europe must provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and non-lethal aid to Ukraine.

• In response, Zelenskyy has said Ukraine would offer US firms lucrative contracts to rebuild Ukraine in an attempt to woo the US.

• Zelenskyy has also said that Ukraine would exchange territory in Kursk for Ukrainian territory. Russia said that Ukrainian troops in Kursk would be expelled or destroyed.

• The chief of staff for the Anti-Terrorist Centre of the SBU has been detained as an FSB spy on 14 counts of illegal activity. Colonel Dmytro Koziura had been recruited by the FSB a number of years ago, and has been used to pass on disinformation as part of their investigation.

  

• With the US rejecting NATO membership for Ukraine, Zelenskyy is now saying that Ukraine must build NATO on its territory if it doesn’t get invited.

• He also said, without the Ukrainian army, Europe faces total occupation.

Day 1085 (13 Feb)

• Trump posts uncomfortable words on social media, saying that Russia ‘took a lot of land and they fought for that land, and some of it will come back to Ukraine. It seems to suggest that Russia ‘deserves’ the land because they fought for it, yet Trump fails to understand Ukraine is not fighting, but is defending itself hence they cannot stop fighting unless they surrender.

• The current US administration state that Europe needs to pay for its own security and not to rely on the US, and to do that they can buy US weapons rather than the US give them to Ukraine. This was the same kind of attitude prior to the US joining WW II and then Pear Harbour happened.

• Fragments of two drones were found in Moldova after an overnight attack on Ukraine. One of the drones was found in a field in the village of Ciumai and another 1.5km in Ceadir-Lunga. The president, Sandu said that the country cannot defend itself against them.

Day 1086 (14 Feb)

• The 61st Munich Security Conference (14-16 Feb) takes place where Ukraine, Russia, and the US are reported to have scheduled talks on ending the war in Ukraine. The day before, Ukraine denied such talks had been planned.

• The Chernobyl nuclear plant shelter has been damaged in a Russian drone strike.

• The US special envoy to Ukraine Kellogg is already discussing formalising Ukrainian territorial losses before any negotiations.