I try and look at this war from a pragmatic viewpoint, and the reality is Russia is waiting until the Western allies cut down on sending aid to Ukraine, because they know without the aid that Ukraine is relatively defenceless. On the other hand, Ukraine is crying out for further aid from the allies, but we see multiple stories of corruption within the Ukrainian government not only prior to the war, but during the war too. When you have the head of the Supreme Court arrested for bribery, various heads in other regions having been exposed as Kremlin agents for years, then the corruption during the war when the government was giving soldiers substandard uniforms and food while those in charge embezzled money, you can see why support can wane.
Yes, if Ukraine had more advanced weapons and a trained military then they could fight Russia with limited aid, but they have neither. The fact that other allied countries have been training Ukrainian soldiers shows that the army was not prepared and was poorly trained, and let’s not forget the fact that more than 600,000 men (on record) have fled Ukraine to avoid being drafted into the military.
It would unrealistic to believe that Ukraine would be winning the war if they had sufficient weapons because first of all, many soldiers would not be trained to use them, there are insufficient trained soldiers to carry out an offensive on all the occupied regions, and areas such as Kherson were occupied due to pro-Kremlin agents being in charge of the administration. Kherson stood no chance as these conspirators handed over power to Russia, so no amount of weapons would have helped when the corruption is so deep.
As I have said before, Ukraine seems to be too focused on restoration of Ukraine when there is no guarantee they will defeat Russia. They are putting energies into rebuilding a country that continues to be destroyed, and have had to admit the counteroffensive that was only possible with the aid of the allies had limited success with the liberation of a handful of settlements. If that was the best they could do with additional weapons and in dry conditions, then re-taking Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk as well as the other occupied regions like Mariupol with take decades.
I read the Ukrainian press and then columns and reports from US and UK reporters, and the Ukrainians like their awards, and I feel it wholly unnecessary to hold these ceremonies and to keep bleating about their successes when they have blown up a Russian target. Do we need to know each day how many drones the Ukrainian air defence systems shot down? Not really, because what Ukraine needs is men fighting on the frontline to liberate the occupied areas and with advanced weapons, and without the pro-Kremlin spies giving their positions away.
I seem to repeat the same stories—a town is liberated and it is found that pro-Russian supporters who chose not to evacuate aided the occupation and gave the Russians information on the position of the Ukrainian army. So, basically one should suspect anyone that chooses not to evacuate as a Russian spy. Why would you stay unless you were looking after someone sick and immobile except to spy for the Russians?
Putin has said he will increase the attacks on Ukraine after the Belgorod ‘attack’ where Russians died, but is that also because he knows that the US aid to Ukraine has come to a halt? On paper, it is an ideal time for Russia to strike with the harsh winter conditions, and with the knowledge that Ukraine are running short of soldiers and ammunition and with practical support from the allies being reduced? The focus might be on EU and NATO membership, but neither are going to be implemented during 2024, besides Ukraine can’t join NATO until they have won the war. As for the EU membership, you have the issues of Hungary and Slovakia who may object and both countries under the present leaderships have expressed reservations.
Ukraine is dependent on how elections during 2024 of the allied countries, and those leaders who seek to be re-elected will be focusing on their own political campaigns. They can continue to state they support Ukraine, but ultimately it is up to the government that is elected at the time who have the actual say in matters as we have seen with the shift in the Slovakian support since Fico took over.
Day 677 (1 Jan 2024)
Putin has vowed to increase attacks on Ukraine after the 25 deaths in Belgorod, stating that the western support was the obstacle to ending the war. However, he has rightly said that western support is declining but claims it is because they know they cannot destroy Russia, whereas it is because ammunition stocks are low, and countries are having to divide funds to Ukraine with aid supplied to the Middle East.
The Czech Republic refused to join the UN Security Council meeting on 30 Dec 2023 after Russia claimed Czech made weapons were used in the Belgorod attack.
We refuse to be summoned anywhere by Russia. Czechia will not serve the lie, poisoned propaganda of the aggressor. When Russia wants to discuss the withdrawal of his occupier troops at the Security Council, we will be happy to come. (Jan Lipavsky, Czech Foreign Minister)
Day 678 (2 Jan)
Turkey has blocked two British Naval mine hunting vessels from passing through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits claiming that it is trying to ‘prevent escalation’ in the Black Sea. I believe there was a de-mining coalition for countries in the Black Sea, and Turkey was asked to join. Looks as if Turkey is using this as a blackmail attempt to gain equipment from NATO as the vessels are there in a humanitarian capacity.
Russia attacked Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Lviv again. Buildings that were targeted included museums, warehouses, residential buildings and universities,
In response, the Baltic leaders of Lithuania and Latvia have called for more air defence systems to be provided to Ukraine. This is why US funding is paramount as the US can provide what Ukraine actually needs. Other allied countries have to be careful to ensure they have adequate weapons to defend themselves.
Day 679 (3 Jan)
Reports claim that Russia is forming a mercenary group called the Hispaniola, that was previously part of the Vostok Battalion, and reports say that Putin’s party is recruiting people for the group.
After a missile entered Polish airspace for several minutes, due to increased activity in the air, Poland used F-16s to defend its airspace yesterday while Russia was attacking Ukraine. Soon, Ukraine will have some F-16s and trained pilots, and that may help Ukraine protect their skies but there is still a war on the frontline.