The Wagner/ Prigozhin 'Insurrection', And Mutiny
Day 486/487. In 24 hours Russian civil war nearly broke out
Day 486 (24 June)
Day 487 (25 June)
Yevgeny Prigozhin, (the head of the Wagner group, the mercenary army that does the dirty work for the Kremlin) had been on the edge for a number of months now, complaining that the Kremlin had not delivered ammunition while they were fighting to occupy Bakhmut.
Prigozhin appeared to have been appeased when promises of ammunition were made, and he in return promised to handover occupied parts of Bakhumat to Russian troops. However, it’s never easy and smooth and Prigozhin accused the Russian army of mining the routes (he is Russian) killing some of his men. He further accused the Russian army of attacking his units and killing them, showing images of dead men while he posted his rants on Telegram.
The latest was that the Russian army (Sergei Shoigu, Russian Minister of Defence) declared that the Wagner group should be integrated into the Russian army by 1 July 2023, to allow for ease of operations. Prigozhin objected, as these are his men and who do as he orders them and that means also fighting in other countries.
Prigozhin had given interviews, stating that the Russian army was in disarray due to who was in charge (Shoigu and the General Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov) threats on Telegram and finally he snapped and mounted what was a mutiny and revolt against the leaders of the army. The FSB has issued a warrant for his arrest for treason, while he claimed he was a patriot looking out for Russia.
This was not coup as he was careful not to accuse Putin, but criticised who Putin had put in charge. The aim of the ‘march for justice’ as he called it was to force change in the structure of the army, but not to topple the government or overthrow it as much as many would like to see.
What this has shown is that there is discontent among the Russians, and that money can’t buy loyalty. The Wagner troops marched towards Moscow and took control of major government buildings in the city of Rostov-on-Don without much resistance (where the military headquarters and FSB are situated) within 12 hours, and residents even came out to support them.
Meanwhile, Russian oligarchs fled Moscow on their private planes, and Putin’s planes also left the city although the Kremlin claims that Putin remained inside the Kremlin. Moscow was on lockdown, and residents were advised to stay inside, and events were cancelled (although some fled by car and train to get out of the city). Reserve troops were moved to Moscow to fortify the city, and the Wagner group got 200km to Moscow before the mutiny was called off by Prigozhin
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“I appeal to the citizens of Russia, to the personnel of the armed forces, law enforcement and security services, fighters and commanders currently fighting on their positions, repelling the enemy attacks, doing it heroically.
I spoke to the commanders in all directions last night. I appeal also to those who were deceptively pulled into the criminal adventure, pushed towards a serious crime of an armed mutiny.
Today Russia is fighting fiercely for its future, repelling the aggression of neo-Nazis and their handlers. Directed against us is the whole military, economical and information machines of the West.
We fight for the lives and security of our people; for our sovereignty and independence; for the right to remain Russia, a state with a thousand-year history.
This battle, where the fate of our people is being decided, requires all our forces to be united; unity, consolidation and responsibility. Everything that weakens us must be put to the side, any differences that may be used or are used by our enemies to disrupt us from within.
Thus, the actions splitting our unity are a betrayal of our people, of our brothers in combat who fight now at the front line. It’s a stab in the back of our country and our people.
It was such a blow that was dealt to Russia in 1917 when the country was fighting in World War I, but its victory was stolen.
Intrigues, bickering and politicking behind the back of the army and the people turned out to be the greatest catastrophe, the destruction of the army and the state, loss of huge territories, resulting in a tragedy and a civil war.
Russians were killing Russians, brothers killing brothers. The beneficiaries of that were various political chevaliers of fortune and foreign powers who divided the country, and tore it into parts.
We will not let this happen again. We will protect our people and state from any threats, including internal betrayal. What we’re facing is exactly a betrayal.
Big ambitions and personal interests led to treason. Betrayal of one’s own country and people and of the cause that fighters of Wagner were dying for alongside our soldiers. Heroes who liberated Soledar and Artemovsk, towns and cities of the Donbas, who fought and gave their lives to Novorossiya and for the unity of the Russian world. Their name and glory have been betrayed by those who are trying to organise the mutiny, pushing the country into anarchy and fratricide, to a defeat, in the end, and capitulation.
I repeat: any internal mutiny is a deadly threat to our state, to us as a nation. It’s a blow against Russia, against our people. And our actions to defend the fatherland from such a threat will be brutal.
Anyone who consciously went on the path of betrayal, who prepared the armed mutiny, went on the path of blackmail and terrorist actions, will be punished inevitably. They will answer before the law and our people.
The armed forces and other departments have received the necessary orders. Additional anti-terrorist security measures are now being implemented in Moscow, Moscow region, and a number of other regions. Decisive actions will be taken to stabilise the situation in Rostov-on-Don, which still remains difficult. The operation of civilian and military control departments is practically blocked.
As a president of Russia and the commander-in-chief, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, protect the Constitution, lives and safety, liberty of the citizens.
Those who organised and prepared the military mutiny, who turned weapons against their comrades-in-arms, have betrayed Russia, and will be held accountable for that.
And those who are being pulled into the crime, I’m calling on you to not make this crucial, tragic, unrepeatable mistake.
Make the only right choice – stop participating in criminal actions.
I believe that we will defend and preserve what’s sacred for us. And together with the motherland, we will overcome all challenges, and become even stronger.”
(Putin 24 June 2023)
Lukashenko of Belarus, the Putin puppet had been on the phone negotiating with him and an agreement had been reached although the details have not been made public. We have been told that Putin had been trying to reason with Prigozhin to no avail.
What we do know is about 7:30 pm on 24 June 2023, the mutiny was halted, troops were ordered to go back to base, and Prigozhin left Russia for Belarus and all charges against him were dropped. Security guarantees were also given to Wagner troops, but it seems that some might be forced to sign up for the Russian army, while those who dod not participate in the mutiny might be free to continue with the Wager group. Nothing is clear, but it seems that the Wagner group can no longer be truly independent of the Kremlin
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Prigozhin’s role in the invasion of Ukraine has been crucial, but Putin does not forgive traitors and so whether Prigozhin falls out of a window or is poisoned, there is a good chance of either happening. Perhaps money was involved, for Prigozhin worked for money and knows too many secrets, but also he runs troll farms that spread Russian propaganda around Russia and in occupied regions in Ukraine. Is he safe from the wrath of Putin?
The Kremlin were keen to show that the mutiny was hopeless as Prigozhin hoped others would back him and they didn’t. Perhaps out of fear, or because they can’t trust him? Who is more trustworthy, Prigozhin or Putin?
The West and the leaders of the G7 watched events in Russia but were careful not to comment, but it did distract from the Ukrainian counteroffensive, and for 24 hours, there was a chance that there might be a Russian civil war. What the world is waiting for is to see how Putin will react, for Prigozhin has made him look weak and even in his address to the Russians, Putin didn’t appear to have the control that his propaganda has purported, but he praised the Wagner troops for their bravery but stated that this kind of action is treasonous and Russia will protect itself from internal treachery.
The insurrection did not stop Russia launching missiles at Kyiv, and the city suffered more damages and deaths. The Wagner mutiny had been brewing for months, but no one expected them to march from Ukraine to Moscow and to get so close without incident. Border guards at Bugayevka laid down their weapons (180 soldiers) as they crossed over into Voronezh and then Rostov. Who knows what would have happened if the Wagner group got to Moscow? What they wanted is to avoid bloodshed of Russians killing Russians, and gave Prigozhin what he wanted, but then again a Russian promise is never guaranteed.
This war is not only about weapons but tactics and intelligence and using it to take advantage of the best time to strike. Russia has been weakened internally and this could alter the situation in Ukraine, because are Russians still convinced that the special military operation was based on a need to defend Russia from Ukraine? From the Wagner mutiny, there appears to be more of a threat from those who have been fighting for Russia. Should Putin lose the trust of the Russians, then a coup is more likely to be successful and this mutiny has shown that not all Russians are convinced that the invasion of Ukraine is in the best interests of Russia.
I think, to put it mildly, Putin has been disrespected, even humiliated by Prigozhin and won't take THAT lightly. I would suggest Prigozhin stay away from open windows.
I've watched all this unfold over the past 24 hours and have been anxiously awaiting your writing to try to better understand exactly what was going on. I wondered why Prigozhin called it off so quickly. Like you, I don't believe he's long for this world, despite the fake "hero" narrative from Putin. Putin has been embarrassed and people are going to have to pay. I've no doubt he intends to inflict a large portion of that anger on Ukraine, too. After reading up on Prigozhin, I'm not sure which of the 2 are worse. But I strongly believe it has shown a weakness in both the Kremlin and his military, especially given the ease with which they moved in so quickly. The ease with which Putin's soldiers put down their weapons for Prigozhin is telling. I think they have war fatigue, too. I also found it quite telling that in the midst, all his oligarch's fled immediately in comparison to Zellensky's leaders refusing to leave him. I think there will be more to this story in the days to come, but find it highly unlikely we'll ever know the entire truth.