The US Gives Ukraine Long Range Missiles
The US $60 billion bill is finally passed after 6 months
The $61 billion bill was passed in the House of Representatives on 20 April 2024, passed to the Senate and signed off by Biden on 24 April. This means that weapons that have been waiting to be sent to Ukraine can finally be delivered. Apparently, Mike Johnson (speaker) had a change of heart claiming he wanted to be on the right side of history, only to later admit he had been shown intelligence that persuaded him how crucial it was to have the bill passed. However, 112 Republicans still voted against the bill, and it makes you wonder if they are being enticed in some way or are completely stupid?
What is the cost of the delay? Besides thousands of lives, residential buildings, power plants and historical buildings have been destroyed and while we can’t bring back the dead, the cost of rebuilding Ukraine is estimated to be over $400 billion to date.
The delay in receiving weapons has meant that Ukraine has had to retreat from some missions in order to save troops and ammunition, and some settlements have been occupied by the Russians. That was the consequence of a 6 month delay in aid, where Ukraine admitted that they cannot win the war against Russia without US aid. While Zelenskyy pleads for patriot systems, Greece and Spain had said no, but other EU leaders chose to speak to them. Greece has still said no due to the threat of Turkish hostilities and Spain has relented and has agreed to send air defence systems, but is reluctant to state exactly what.
Ukraine’s mobilisation system doesn’t get any better with men being caught trying to flee the country and some who have died trying to cross the border. Another tactic is to state that Ukrainian passports that have expired will only be reissued in Ukraine for men of mobilisation age (18-60), and will have limited consular assistance in other countries. The reaction from other countries has been mixed—Lithuania and Poland support whatever Ukraine chooses to do (to help bring men that can serve back to Ukraine), Estonia and Germany have said they will not expel those who do not have documents (as Ukrainian refugees have protected status), and the US has said it will not restrict assistance either. I doubt this move will work because people will simply apply for a passport from another country if they are able to, or just stay put and not leave.
While others agree with me that Ukraine needs more troops on the ground, where will they come from? NATO cannot technically interfere unless Article 5 is invoked or they intervene on humanitarian grounds, so some think Europe should send troops. How could that work and who would be in charge? Zelenskyy claims that Ukraine only needs weapons, but the truth is that soldiers are thin on the ground if the current rotation are demobilised. There simply aren’t enough soldiers to replace them and that is a fact, and those who are due to be mobilised rather risk death fleeing the country.
NATO is showing how ineffective it can be. Stoltenberg has said that NATO members need to step up and deliver equipment that has been pledged to Ukraine immediately. That’s been the problem—countries offer packages, but the delivery of the equipment has either taken months, or arrives in dribs and drabs which makes planning any offensive impossible when you don’t have the tools.
We see the resilience of the Ukrainians, where a 98 year old woman walked 10km to freedom when the Russians destroyed her home and occupied her village. With no food or water, she walked with 2 sticks, fell, fell asleep, but made it when she was found by Ukrainian soldiers who took her to safety. Not all have made it to safety, but the world needs to know that Russia will not stop attacking Ukraine. They can end the war at any moment, but choose not to.
Day 787 (20 Apr)
The House of Representatives finally passed the $61 billion aid bill, however, 112 Republicans still voted against the bill. The bill is passed to the Senate and then to Biden to sign.
The Security Service of Ukraine, and their Special Defences Operations along with Defence Intelligence were behind the strikes in 8 Russian regions, targeting oil refineries and energy plants. Targets included Lukoil oil depot in Smolensk and a depot in Kardymovo that acts as a shipment hub for Belarusian refineries. An energy sub station in Vygonichi (Bryansk) was also a target and Istobnoyne in Belgorod.
US Congress is the first G7 country to pass legislation to permit the use of confiscated Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine.
Zelenskyy stated what Ukraine needs to defeat Russia: air, defence systems, artillery, ammunition, long range, weapons, aviation, support, and speedy deliveries.
Day 788 (21 Apr)
The first batch of ammunition from the Czech initiative is due to be delivered in June. You can see how long it takes for military aid to reach Ukraine, and this has been the issue with ammunition and equipment being delivered sporadically so Ukraine may have weapons on paper but not in their hands.
Germany along with Latvia, and Lithuania has offered equipment and parts from thermal power plants that have closed down to assist Ukraine in repairing damaged power plants from Russian strikes.
The US is considering sending military advisors to work alongside the Kyiv administration, and be based at the embassy in Kyiv.
Poland, US, and Lithuania and other NATO countries begin military exercises around the Suwalki Gap in Lithuania.
NATO is appearing to be useless as Stoltenberg says:
US aid delay has had real consequences in Ukraine, but it's not too late for it to make a difference. The Ukrainians have now for months been out gunned, roughly 1 to 5 or 1 to 10, depending on what part of the front line you are talking about.
Day 789 (22 Apr)
The US has admitted it has sent Ukraine (more than 100) long range missiles (ATACMS) already to be used within the borders of Ukraine. However, this restriction appears to be lifted several days later when Lloyd Austin said it was up to Ukraine, how and when to use them. This is because there was evidence that North Korean ballistic missiles were used against Ukraine.
Russian oil tankers in the Baltic Sea are conducting espionage and are also circumventing sanctions, however, there is no entity to stop them or to punish them.
The Kharkiv TV tower has been destroyed by the Russians as locals watched the tower tumble.
Ukraine needs patriot systems. Poland says it cannot offer any but will offer other assistance, Greece considers this with US guarantees but backs out, and Spain eventually agrees to provide support. However, it remains to be seen when any equipment is delivered.
As the mobilisation age is lowered in Ukraine, it doesn’t appear to have solved the issue of a lack of soldiers. The new bill does not specify how long one needs to serve and how long demobilisation will last. Without clear directives, soldiers will be reluctant to sign up. Those who wanted to volunteer would have done so already.
Ukraine is to limit consular help for those of mobilisation age (18-60), and will not issue or send Ukrainian passports outside of Ukraine. The problem it seems is that men leave Ukraine, but still expect services from the state without serving their country.
Lithuania and Poland have said they would assist Ukraine by limiting services such a social benefits and work permits to encourage them to return to Ukraine. Other countries such as Germany have said they would not compel anyone to return to Ukraine and would offer temporary residence permits.
Ukraine needs to have its mobilisation plans. Ukraine must have the means and instruments to invite its young men to serve their homeland, and we must cooperate with Ukraine in every sense. We could probably look for some ways to make sure that a person has performed their mobilisation duty, or is exempted from it when we consider whether to extend their temporary residence. But we need to work not only with Ukrainian authorities but also more broadly because right now the EU has so-called temporary protection in place for Ukrainian people.(Ingrida Simonyte, Lithuanian PM)
Day 790 (23 Apr)
Hungary (again) has said they would block the Ukrainian aid bill for €1.5 billion, claiming that Ukraine had a witch hunt against Hungarian companies in Ukraine!
Strikes in Ukraine continue in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kherson, Sumy, and Mykolaiv.
Russia has claimed to have occupied Novomykhailivka, but Ukraine denies this. The problem here is that Russia knows Ukraine has run out of weapons and that none are en route due to the delayed US aid bill.
It will cost €350 million to rebuild the damaged power plants caused by the recent Russian attacks.
The UK offers a £500 million ($617 million) military aid package, which is the largest from the UK to date. This was announced during a visit to Poland.
Day 791 (24 Apr)
Biden finally signed the much needed and delayed $61 billion aid bill after the Senate vote on 23 April. He has said weapons can be with Ukraine within a matter of days. This can sustain Ukraine through 2024.
It's a good day for America, it's a good day for Europe and it's a good day for world peace. (Biden)
China is silently supporting Russia by supplying equipment to make weapons, and without their support, Russia would struggle, therefore, China is not neutral. Also, Chinese companies are using different payment methods as sanctions are making financial transactions harder to process.
More oil refineries have been in fire in Russia; Talashkino, and Yartsevo in Smolensk.
Another Ramstein Contact Group meeting is held where Zelenskyy again asked for long range missiles and air defence systems.
Day 792 (25 Apr)
Poland has made a statement, saying that Lviv is a Ukrainian city and not a Polish one to refute Russian propaganda.
Ukraine and Denmark signed a Memorandum of Understanding for long term cooperation, and have allocated €40 million to help reconstruct Ukraine.
Denmark has also announced $633 million in military aid to Ukraine’s Fund in 2024.
A priest of a Russian backed church (Metropolitan Arsenii) has been accused of leaking information on Ukrainian military positions to the Russians during a liturgy. He is head of the Svyatogorsk Lavra monastery in Donetsk, a major monastery in Ukraine, and could face up to 8 years in prison for violating Part 2 of Article 114-2 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine.
A North Korean registered cargo ship has docked in a Chinese port for months, and appears to have illicit arms for Russia, as it's cargo according to satellite imagery.
Qatar is to host a meeting on the Ukrainian peace plan ahead of the June summit in Switzerland.
Italy, in conjunction with UNESCO have signed an agreement with Ukraine to help rebuild Odessa and the transfiguration cathedral that was damaged by Russian strikes.
Day 793 (26 Apr)
Russians broke through in Avdiivka and have captured Ocheretyne. A 98 year old woman (Lidiia Stepanivna) whose home was destroyed walked 10km to safety and was found by Ukrainian soldiers. The co-owner of Monobank, Oleh Horokhovskyi has stepped in and said a house will be bought for her.
Russia also occupies Semenivka and Soloviove near Avdivka.
Dylan Earl has been charged with planning an attack against London businesses with Ukrainian connections after being charged also with spying for Russia in the UK.
Canada will donate nearly $12 million to assist with Ukraine's drone production. It is the second country after Denmark to commit to the ZBROYARI fundraising campaign.
The US will allocate an additional $6 billion for military assistance for Ukraine under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI).
Stoltenberg at the Atlantik-Bruke event in Berlin has urged NATO members to do more to help Ukraine:
It's not too late for Ukraine to prevail. Ukraine can still win the war against Russia, but allies have more to do to ensure Kyiv receives the support we have promised. We need to turn these commitments into real deliveries of weapons and ammunition – and to do so quickly.
Day 794 (27 Apr)
Estonia and Denmark have transferred two naval patrol boats to Ukraine.
Russia has been employing double tap strikes, which is a military tactic where initial strike is followed by a delayed second strike that is aimed at killing and injuring first responders at the scene and is also considered a war crime
Ukraine has hit further oil refineries in Russia—Ilsky and Slavyansk, and the military airfield in Krasnodar, and Kushchevskaya. Ukraine also claims to have hit a Russian radar system.
Australia has announced $100 million military aid package for Ukraine which includes short range air defence systems. Oh fuck
Day 795 (28 Apr)
Italy will now supply Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine.
Two men were pulled out of the Tysa River as men attempt to flee Ukraine as the mobilisation age was lowered. The river flows along the border with Hungary, Romania, and Moldova, and report state that many men have been attempting to leave the country by swimming in the river. More than 30 men have died trying to cross the border according to the Border Service.
Ukrainian troops have retreated from Berdychi, Semenivka, and Novomykailvka villages in Donetsk. Chasiv Yar is still in danger and if Russia seizes it then it will open routes to other key cities such as Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk.
Germany has opposed season Russian assets because of potential World War II era reparations that they experienced. However, the US and UK argue that the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets is essential for Ukraine to defeat Russia.
Day 796 (29 Apr)
Sophie, The Duchess of Edinburgh is the first member of the British Royal Family to visit Ukraine as a sign of support, and also as an advocate against violence against women. In particular the use of rape as a weapon by the Russians in this war.
Stoltenberg for NATO also visited Ukraine and held a joint conference with Zelenskyy who stated Ukraine would not join NATO until they had defeated Russia. Stoltenberg also stated that membership requires consensus from all 32 members and admits that currently that is not possible for Ukraine, but there is something that NATO is working on.
Not supporting Ukraine risks of Putin prevailing, which would be far costly for native security. (Stoltenberg)
To date Germany, and Spain will send patriot systems and the US,UK and Australia. Will also send air defence systems.
Latvenergo the state owned energy company of Latvia has transferred high voltage transformers to Ukraine to help repair the power systems that were damaged by the Russian attacks. The parts were previously used at the Riga hydroelectric power plant. The Latvian fire and rescue service helped deliver the cargo and the EU covered the transportation costs.
Seven leading European banks are still in Russia and have generated €800 million in tax for Russia. These include Deutsche Bank, ING, UniCredit, Raiffeisen Bank, Commerzbank, Intesa, and Sanpaolo.
Day 797 (30 Apr)
Thomas H, a former German officer admits spying to Russia due to fears of a nuclear war, where he leaked state secrets.
Iceland has adopted a resolution for long-term assistance for Ukraine from 2024 to 2028.
The dismantling of a monument in Kyiv the commemorated is 17th century treaty between the Cossack Hetmanate and Tsardom of Muscovy has begun. It was erected during the Soviet era (1982) alongside the People’s Friendship Arch as a sign of the reunification of Ukraine and Russia