This has been a long eight weeks, where it is hard to believe that the invasion of Ukraine has only been two months long. In other news, Elon Musk has bought Twitter for $44 billion, but could Twitter get any worse? It is a useful platform for this war as it allows people on the ground to update the world on events in real time. The downside is that it also allows misinformation to be spread.
It is also hard to believe that the UN is only now intervening in the Ukraine situation, after the destruction of cities, towns, and villages, tens of thousands that have died (no figure can be available until after the war), where atrocious crimes have taken place from tortured civilians, executions, rape, and genocide. One would think the UN were on another planet with their delayed reaction to the invasion, but could they have prevented some of the deaths and atrocities? The truth is the UN has limited ‘power’ and hold meetings and discussions that they hope the states will act on. That is what the UN at present is— a long and protracted virtual discussion table.
The Russians have warned NATO and particularly the US to refrain from supplying Ukraine with weapons, or that they would consider it as an escalation of war and have suggested that it would justify the use of nuclear weapons. That is what Russia believes and how they interpret aid, and what the West deems acceptable is obviously different. The West have drawn a line at sending in troops and to actively participate, where Russia believe the line was crossed when weapons were donated to Ukraine, and saw that as a hostile act against Russia.
How could Russia justify their threat of using nuclear weapons as a means of retaliation? No country has actually attacked Russia or Russians directly or intentionally. Countries can choose not to trade with Russia, and that is a choice as no one is obliged to do so. It should be remembered that Russians are on Ukrainian territory committing hostile acts, therefore, Ukraine and those who support Ukraine in defending their land have a right to use appropriate means to remove the trespassers.
For instance, if someone breaks into your home you have a right to defend yourself, and if a neighbour hears your cries for help and they want to help save you, then they have a right to do so because you would want them there. Naturally, that is in simplistic terms, but the fact that the US and UK have held international discussions on how to provide weapons and aid to Ukraine, and have not hidden that fact. That can only infuriate Russia further as their ‘demands’ to cease supplying Ukraine have been ignored.
The next few days will consist of more meetings and discussions, and Ukraine is at the mercy of these talks where the UN and NATO will discuss the fate of Ukraine, and how to deal with the Russians. The ‘refresh’ button has been hit on the UN and NATO in particular where they now have to adapt their purpose to the contemporary issues that the world faces. Ukraine is an exceptional case, and there is no reason why NATO cannot draw up extraordinary measures to allow NATO membership in these exceptional circumstances.
Ukraine will struggle to be a member of NATO for many reasons, objections probably from Hungary and they would not be able to contribute to NATO funding while parts of the country are being rebuilt. The EU membership looks shaky with Austria opposing the application too. It makes you wonder whether these ministers truly represent the will of the People they serve? How would EU membership affect Austria? Ukraine being in the EU would be beneficial from a trade perspective for all EU countries, putting aside the other political issues. How would NATO membership directly affect Hungary, a country that has been a huge beneficiary of EU funds, and NATO since it became a member of the alliances?
The world is in a mess, and it will have worse before it can get better. Escalation is what everyone was fearing, but it will be inevitable in some format, the question is when?
Day 62 (26 April)
The US establish the ‘Humanitarian Parole’ program that allows Americans to sponsor Ukrainian refugees where they can stay on a temporary basis.
The UN Secretary General met with the Turkish President to discuss the Ukraine situation yesterday.
Russia has claimed that the attacks on the the railways was justified as an attempt to prevent Western aid being transported into Ukraine.
Russia has further suggested that NATO has engaged in war with Russia by supplying weapons to Ukraine, and that this could lead to escalation where Russia believes it has a right to use nuclear weapons and World War III.
Sanctions against Putin’s mistress (Alina Kabaeva) have been suggested and had been postponed due to fears that Putin would see it as a personal attack and ‘retaliate’. Reports claimed that she was put into hiding in Switzerland prior to the invasion.
The Mariupol situation lingers on, and if the UN Secretary General can’t guarantee a save evacuation corridor for all concerned, then the UN isn’t for purpose.
Russia has accused Croatia of being anti-Russian for refusing to organise a flight for 24 Russian diplomats and embassy staff who were expelled to leave Croatia. The deadline to leave was 25 April and they had been served their notice on 11 April. Croatia has told them to make their own arrangements to leave the country.
The US held a press conference in Poland after visiting Ukraine, and stated that they Russia must be destabilised to prevent them carrying out further invasions.
The US will host a meeting in Germany with more than 40 other countries to discuss providing defences and aid to Ukraine.
The UN Secretary General will meet with Putin today, and hope to secure a safe evacuation for those trapped in Mariupol. If Guterres fails to do that, then the UN really needs to be reformed ASAP.
Putin is escalating the war by threatening to use nuclear weapons; Putin, the Russian President, will be responsible for the deaths of thousands of Russian civilians and the destruction of Russian cities and towns. Croatia isn't anti-Russian, but pro-Ukraine.
Russia invaded Ukraine and now claiming countries supplying military and humanitarian support to Ukraine are 'hostile' and 'anti' Russia- where is the logic?