The Ukrainian Counteroffensive
The main news has been the effects of the Kakhovka dam, and the possibility of cholera and other diseases as sewage mixes with the reservoir and enters the Black Sea.
Ukraine has officially begun their counteroffensive and over the last several days have liberated 7 settlements. Several are quite small, but one needs to take a win whenever possible. The danger here in the reporting is that the West will be complacent and it leads to the risk of the allies believing they have sent enough weapons, whereas in reality there is no such thing as enough weapons against Russia.
Russia has retaliated by launching more missile attacks, and one aimed at Zelenskyy’s home town of Kryvyi Rih, quite possibly as a message to Zelenskyy. The Kremlin does not seek peace, therefore, peace talks would be futile and Russia has already stated they will not renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative, not that they have actually honoured their roles, as they blocked inspections and held up the process for months.
Day 473 (11 June)
More than 700, 000 people have lost access to drinking water due to the destruction of the dam, and it looks as if Crimea will not have access to a water supply for a year as it depended on the reservoir for their water supply and it now too low to flow through the Crimean Canal.
There are at least 80 settlements that have been affected by the flooding caused but eh destruction of the dam, with evacuations still taking place and the numbers of those who are missing increase by the day.
Reports claim that 4 boxes of ammunition that were being guarded by NATO soldiers were stolen in Poland (Weglinka railways station). They were fished out of a pond, where 3 were intact, and one was opened. The train has arrived from Germany and was guarded by American soldiers. No ammunition was missing, but it raises questions about security of the transportation of weapons and ammunition.
Ukraine (68th Jaeger Brigade) liberated Blahodatne, ,Makarivka, and Neskuchne in Donetsk. This was the first ‘win’ in the counteroffensive and in total 3 small villages were liberated.
The ICC arrived to investigate the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam.
The Ukrainian POWs transferred to Hungary as reported to have been told they must criticise Ukraine and thank the Russian Orthodox Church before they can be released. Obviously this goes against all the principles of a POW as they should not be coerced into saying things in order to be released, so technically, they are still Russian prisoners who are in Hungary and Hungary is facilitating this.
People have been shelled as they try to evacuate Kherson by boat, leaving several injured and reports of 3 dead. They did reach Kherson where they received medical treatment, but this is another war crime as Russia tried to stop people leaving a humanitarian crisis and is truly despicable.
Another tactic the Russians are using is by claiming a town must be under quarantine, and no residents can leave. This is what they have done in Hola Prystan which has suffered extensive flooding.
Another prisoner swap was made—95 Ukrainians were returned, and included personnel from Bakhmut, Azovstal, Mariupol, Chernobyl, and Zmiiny Island.
Russia is trying to make Wagner mercenaries join the Russian army by integrating them. The deadline if 1 July 2023, but technically, the Wagner group is a volunteer outfit, and this has caused more tensions with the leader of the Wagner group.
Russia has deployed their elite troops out of Kherson to other regions. During the flooding, Russian soldiers lost their weapons and supplies too as it appears that they did not anticipate such destruction.
In Armiansk, (in Crimea) reports claim that Russian officials are moving out and evacuating the administrations.
Day 474 (12 June)
Russia has blown up a dam in order to slow down the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The dam was on the Mokri Yaly river, and has lead to flooding on both banks.
More settlements have been liberated —Strozheve in Donetsk, and Novodarivka in Zaporizhzia. This news comes on Russia’s national day.
The Chechens have signed a contract with the Russian military to provide soldiers from the volunteer corp as members of the Russia army in order to integrate and control the troops.
Day 475 (13 June)
The G7 are discussing plans (allegedly) to stop the theft of Ukrainian grain. Finally after more than 8 months of stolen grain, someone is thinking about doing something.
NATO is holding their largest air military exercises in Germany, perhaps as a warning to Russia? The Air Defender exercises will last 2 weeks, and includes 10,000 personnel, and 250 aircraft from 25 countries.
“Air Defender sends a clear message that NATO is ready to defend every inch of Allied territory”, said NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu, adding, “Air Defender is necessary because we live in a more dangerous world. As we face the biggest security crisis in a generation, we stand united to keep our countries and our people safe.” The exercise, she added, “is a strong display of Germany’s commitment, and capabilities and we thank Germany for hosting this record exercise. With 250 aircraft, including around 100 from the United States, Air Defender also demonstrates the strong bond between Europe and North America, working together in NATO.”
Exercise “Air Defender” has been planned for several years. Hosted and led by Germany, it will help ensure NATO air forces are trained and ready to respond together. Most of the aircraft will be stationed on several German air bases. Training missions will primarily take place over the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and Southern Germany. The drills are aimed at boosting interoperability and preparedness to protect against aircraft, drones and missiles attacks on cities and critical infrastructure. Other training events will include supporting ground troops and evacuation missions. Air Defender will run until 23 June.
More settlements are liberated—Lobkove, and Levadne join the list as freed from the Russians.
Traces of e.coli and cholera are found in water as expected, but for now the levels are not high, but could increase causing another humanitarian crisis.
To date, 14 EU members states have provided humanitarian aid to assist with the dam crisis. I wonder if Hungary has sent any aid? These include boats and water pumps, and the task of rebuilding these settlements is a long way off for now as thousands are displaced and are homeless.
Putin signs into law, permitting officials to confiscate foreign passports of those in the military, declaring them as invalid.
Day 476 (14 June)
The Ukraine Recovery Conference will be held 21-22 June 2023 in London, and will enable countries to coordinate their efforts and to find financing to rebuild the country.
Russia targeted Kryvyi Rih, the hometown of Zelenskyy where at least three people were killed and more than 25 sustained injuries.
Hungary is in the news again and their reluctance to adhere to EU and NATO guidelines concerning Russia has not gone unnoticed. In the US, a senator has blocked the sale of arms to Hungary because they have refused to back Sweden’s application to join NATO.
The UN were supposed to send in volunteer teams to rescue and evacuate people trapped in Russian occupied Kherson, but there has been no official word that Russia will guarantee their safely.
The Netherlands will purchase 4 VERA-EG radar systems for Ukraine. These will cost about $150 million, but can be used to track, detect, and identify targets on land and at sea
The Red Newts are an endangered species and 149 were killed in the dam explosion. 55 were saved and returned to the sea.