The Ukraine War ~ No Longer On The International Agenda

This war is all about money now, and since Trump took office USAID has been dismantled and only programs that are to do with life and death have been permitted to continue. That means the US program funding investigations into war crimes in Ukraine will not longer exist, and other support programs. Ukraine says that they will cope, but have admitted that 30% of their weapons come from the US and countless programs have been relied upon to prop up the country.

Zelenskyy is now saying that the only solution is to have NATO membership or to tear up the Budapest Memorandum and give them back their nuclear weapons so that they can defend themselves. Hmm… well, the Budapest Memorandum like all of these treaties relies on the signatories to honour them, and the US has already said there’s no chance of Ukraine getting any nuclear weapons.

Then we come to the NATO membership issue, and in reality that won’t happen for at least a decade unless some special concession is made for Ukraine. We then have the problem of Trump wanting to make a deal with Ukraine, stating that the US will provide weapons in exchange for rights to rare earth minerals, so in short, the US wants access to Ukrainian resources as payment for weapons. Nothing is ever free, especially liberty and democracy. The problem is most of the areas rich in natural resources are being occupied by Russia, and those are the same reasons why Russia targeted them (Crimea and Donbas).

Zelenskyy has already agreed to this in principle because what choice does he have? The Ukrainians who thought Trump had a plan to end the war are suddenly figuring out that it was all talk. Even Zelenskyy who initially said Trump can help end the war was quoted as saying, Trump has no plan to end the war. The US has also said that there is no reason not to hold elections during the war, because it doesn’t mean Zelenskyy won’t still be president. What they fail to understand is that it opens up the issue of Russian interference and Russian proxies to be candidates. We’ve seen this is Romania and Slovakia already, and while I think Zelenskyy is losing it a bit, he’s better than a Russia puppet like Orban being in control.

Another issue is the state of the Ukrainian army who are reported to have said they are reorganising the structure of the army. I hardly think during a war this is an ideal time to restructure, and there are reports of more personnel being transferred to the ground for rotation purposes. So much for having enough soldiers—you don’t if you don’t have enough for at least a whole rotation.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to gain more land from Ukraine as the European allies tighten their own borders. I’ve watched videos of migrants trying to climb the fence at the Belarusian border in Poland, and you can see why those countries that border Russia, Belarus and Ukraine are concerned.

Due to the mild winter, the damage to the energy infrastructure has had less effect than it has done in previous years, but people are still being evacuated, while some refuse to leave. Sadly, those who remained thinking life would be okay under Russian rule are finding out that it’s far worse, and that they should have left when they had the chance.

The endgame looks like this–either Russia takes control of Ukraine, or Ukraine gives up mineral rights to the US in exchange for weapons. Some say that Zelenskyy has been getting a free ride and that is ending, but I feel that he was too idealistic and trusted and believed empty words. Ukraine may have signed a number of bilateral security deals, but we have seen that once a government changes hands, those deals may be rescinded and are worthless. We all know only NATO membership guarantees security and Ukraine may have to make concessions to the US in order to achieve this. Under the Trump administration, they will want more than the Biden one, so Ukraine really should have lowered the conscription age earlier which is a far better deal than giving up the rights to mining valuable resources. We have seen how Trump likes to ‘take control’ of land that has been at war with his idea of taking control to rebuild Gaza, so Ukraine should take note of this when making any deals with the Trump administration.

Day 1069 (28 Jan)

• The Trump administration halts USAID programs for 90 days, except for those that that involve saving lives directly under a humanitarian waiver. This also means thousands of people will lose their jobs, and their families will have to move. Aid to Ukraine continues, but programs such as investigating war crimes have been halted. In the US courts, several states have filed to stop the executive order being carried out, and a judge has placed a temporary hold order as unions fight to keep agencies running.

• Among the projects that are halted are the prosecution of Russian war crimes, and energy infrastructure.

• Putin issues more propaganda claiming that Zelensky doesn't have a right to sign any potential peace deal.

• Zelenskyy meets with Macron in Krakow Poland, to commemorate Holocaust Remembrance Day. He also meets with the European council president Antonio Costa.

Day 1070 (29 Jan)

• Ukrainian lawmakers are seeking ways to replace USAID funding with European funding as the paws in the programs could last 3 to 6 months or be halted indefinitely.

• The SVU uncovered a FSB operation that was targeting Ukrainian airbases that houses F-16 fighter jets.

• Russia claims to have seized Dvorichna in Kharkiv, but Ukraine denied this as propaganda.

  

• Other reports claim that Velyka Novosilka was also occupied but Ukraine says the 110th Marco Beruchko Brigade are still fighting. The Russians are advancing towards Pischane, Nadiya, Baranivka, and Andriyivka.

Day 1071 (30 Jan)

• Norway detained a Russian vessel over suspected under sea cable damage. The Silver Dania which operates under a Norwegian flag travels between Saint Petersburg and Mosque and was seized at Tromso at Latvia’s request. Damage had been done previously by an anchor being dragged along the seabed that damaged undersea cables.

• An attack in Kramatorsk, Donetsk injured 13 people as historic buildings were targeted.

Day 1072 (31 Jan)

• UN monitors state that the execution of Ukrainian POWs are increasing with 79 executions in 24 incidents since August 2024. There are probably more that have not been recorded.

Day 1073 (1 Feb)

• The Russian FSB is behind the Rivne bombing that killed the bomber and injured 8 service members.

• A bombing in Poltava, killed 12 people and injured at least 17 others.

• The US special envoy for Ukraine, Kellogg stated that Ukraine should hold elections when there is a ceasefire. This is none of the business of the US and seems to be a Kremlin message and narrative they have been plugging, declaring Zelenskyy as a fraud. Holding an election would open Ukraine up to vote rigging and to install a Russian puppet in power.

• Polish and other NATO aircraft were mobilised in response to a muscle attack by Russia in Western Ukraine. What are the basically means is that the aircraft was deployed as a deterrent and also to protect Polish airspace.

Day 1074 (2 Feb)

• During the first few days of the Trump administration, military supplies to Ukraine were suspended, with a view to halting deliveries, but resumed days later. The issue here is that the current administration will halt deliveries to Ukraine when it chooses to do so.

Day 1075 (3 Feb)

• Zelenskyy approves plans to restructure the army. Probably the worst time to do it in the middle of a war and when your major ally has changed governments and may halt military support.

• That fear has donated 100 FPV drones to the Ukrainian military, where some were funded by charity initiatives.

Day 1076 (4 Feb)

• A British family talk of the death of their 18 year old son who joined the Ukraine International Legion. In an interview, they said their son had told them that there was poor training, limited weapons available, and no support as troops were used as cannon fodder. This paints a more realistic picture of what life is like on the frontline on the Donbas, and Ukraine doesn’t have enough soldiers as it claims ot have.

• Ukraine is transferring 50,000 troops to the ground forces to enable troop rotations. Again, this indicates that Ukraine does have a conscription problem in that they don't have sufficient numbers of trained soldiers.

• In Pokrovsk, Russian forces are less than 1.2 miles away as volunteers continue to evacuate the remaining 7,000 people in the area. Some are unwilling to go, mainly the elderly who want to remain by the graves of loved ones or who do not wish to leave their homes. While Ukraine holds back the Russians, unless they have more trained troops to push back the Russians, it looks probable that Pokrovsk will be taken by the Russians. I hope not, but the Ukrainians are being encircled and Ukrainian troops have also withdrawn from the area.

• In Kharkiv, a couple have been detained for collecting information for the Russians under the guise of being animal volunteers. Their

  information helped Russia to launch missile and bomb attacks in the area.

• Two Ukrainian power engineers have been taken hostage at the Zaporizhzhia power plant for having Ukrainian content on their phones.

Day 1077 (5 Feb)

• Ukraine strikes another oil depot in Russia, this time the Albashneft oil depor in Novominskaya.

• 150 POWs return to Ukraine in another prisoner exchange.

• An explosion at Kamianets-Podilskyi in Khmelnytskyi killed the bomber and injured 8 service personnel at the draft office. The FSB was behind the attack.

• In an interview with Piers Morgan, Zelenskyy states that 40% of weapons are made domestically and 30% are from the US, and why it is crucial to have American support. Without it, Russia will win.

• During the interview, Zelenskyy also stated that NATO membership could be delayed for years, even decades and that Ukraine should be given nuclear weapons if there is a delay.

• Zelenskyy also said Ukraine was open to mining cooperation in exchange for weapons and financial support:

  We are open to the idea that mineral resources can be developed with our partners who help us protect our land. (Zelenskyy.)

Day 1078 (6 Feb)

• French Mirage fighter jets arrive in Ukraine to help with air defence.

• Zelenskyy signs a decree extending martial law until 9 May 2025.

• Trump imposes sanctions against the ICC via an executive order, citing that the court has targeted US officials and also the arrest warrant against Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister. This causes friction as the US has not signed the Rome Treaty, but the ICC is needed to prosecute war crimes.

• Ukraine is ready to cooperate with Seoul on the transfer of DPRK soldiers captured in Kursk, Russia. If those soldiers wish to be returned to North Korea, then they will have to be repatriated as per the Geneva Convention.

• Ukraine has destroyed a Russian airfield in Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Krasnodar Krai.

Day 1079 (7 Feb)

• Zelenskyy says he is open to a deal with the US on mining minerals, but will not give the resources away, but will seek a beneficial partnership.

• USAID staff are put on administrative leave, but a last minute temporary hold by a judge halts the order until 14 February 2025.

• 37 Ukrainian MPs are to visit Washington DC to strengthen bilateral relations.

• Russia attacked the village of Myropillia in Sumy as the attacks on Ukraine continue.

Day 1080 (8 Feb)

• The Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania officially have disconnected their energy systems from the Russian power grid, so Russia can no longer use energy as a weapon.