The Russians have been chased out of Lyman by the Ukrainian troops, but how have the Russians responded? Some media outlets have not covered it, while others have blamed the army personnel on the front line. It is an embarrassment that the Russian army has retreated after the celebrations of annexing the region, but no one is brave enough to blame Putin. However, they must blame someone and the army commanders are the scapegoats.
The important thing now is to see how the UN and NATO react, because Russian analysts are suggesting a small nuclear attack to regain control. The kidnapping of the Director General of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe comes at a time when the Russians are desperate. It will take more than Ukrainian flags to be raised across liberated lands to rid the land of the Russians and their collaborators.
This is a delicate and dangerous time, for dictators like Putin don’t like to be publicly humiliated, and the danger of a nuclear war is real. No one wants to believe that will happen, but then again, we didn’t think Putin would invade Ukraine for no reason other than he wanted to and because he believed he had a right to do so. As winter approaches, it will alter the dynamics of military tactics as the cold temperatures will be brutal in that part of the world soon.
While nations call for a diplomatic solution to end the war, it must be remembered that Russia has not respected or honoured any of the former agreements in the past, which include:
The Budapest Memorandum (December 1994)
The Minsk Protocols (2014-2015)
The NATO-Russia Founding Act (1997)
The UN Charter (1945)
The Russian-Ukrainian Border Treaty ( January 2003) https://treaties.un.org/Pages/showDetails.aspx?objid=08000002803fe18a
The Helsinki Final Act, also known as Helsinki Accords or Helsinki Declaration (August 1975). An agreement to respect borders and human rights, and to reject forceful intervention in internal affairs, although it was non binding.
The news has been dominated in part by several stories, the Ukrainian advance in Donbas to retake areas, the transportation of nuclear weapons in Russia to the Ukrainian border, evidence of Russia stealing grain from Ukraine to fund the special military operation, and the Elon Musk tweets, where he plays politician and tells Ukraine to seek a peace deal, let Russia have Crimea, and allow referendums in the occupied areas and if Russia loses, then Russia will leave!
The latter has elicited responses from Ukrainian government officials and people trying to educate Musk on the history of Ukraine, and the fact that Russia has invaded Ukraine. what it does show is that idealistic people are not realists and can cause harm by trying to pursue things that in theory sound like a good idea, but won’t work in real life.
Day 222 (3 October)
The Battle of Lyman has been successfully won by the Ukrainians, in part due to the support of the Western allies who provided weapons. The focus is on keeping the Russians out and flushing out the proxies and collaborators to ensure that an occupation by the Russians doesn’t happen again.
There are however the scars of war left behind, dead Russian soldiers are left behind, and Ukrainian humanitarian groups try to identify them and put them in body bags. Some were left on the streets, bloated after being left there for some time. Camouflaged mines litter the streets, causing death by an accidental touch, and the freed citizens are left with no running water or heat. There is a long way to go before life can be normal again.
However, in Zaporizhzia, Russian missile attacks continue and have targeted civilian buildings and villages. One building was a centre for children with special needs
.
Near the Russian border, Kupiansk in Kharkiv has come under attack again after a convoy of civilians was targeted. This time a hospital was the target where at least one doctor was killed.
The role of France in supporting Ukraine has come under question, not by other European countries, but the French themselves who have supplied around 2% of the weapons that have given to Ukraine. There is always the claim that countries can’t provide weapons because it will leave them short and defenceless, but at the start of the invasion, Poland, and the Czech Republic did not hesitate and provided what they could, and these are countries with fewer resources that France. In short, the French analysts don’t believe France is doing enough when France is supposed to be helping to lead European co-operation .
Discussions in the Russian parliament were heated, where no one seems to know what the new Russian Federation borders are (which are illegitimate), or how much of the regions are to be annexed as they attempt to ratify the annexation. As they don’t know what the alleged borders are, they can’t state which parts are considered Russian territory that they believe they have a right to protect. This confusion arose as they don’t understand what Putin wants or what he has done.
Peskov has stated that “We are going to continue to consult the populations of these regions,” when asked about the borders of the newly annexed regions.
In Kazakhstan, more than 100,000 people have left Russia in order to avoid being drafted into the military, or to be forced to support the special military operation. Most of those who have chosen to leave Russia are young people, who want to have a life and a future, and as soon as they heard the partial mobilisation announced, they knew that they had to make a choice. Among those who have fled Russia are lawyers, IT workers, and young professionals. Some have travelled thousands of miles to cross the border as Kazakhstan allows Russians into the country without a passport as long as they have basic identity documents. This is because those who have fled may not have had passports that would've allowed them to travel to other countries. The president of Kazakhstan, Passim-Jomart Tokayev has stated that his country will help the Russians that wish to leave Russia.
These young people have made a split second decision to leave and start a new life elsewhere, and are effectively refugees sleeping on floors and relying on food and shelter from local volunteers and the Kazakhstan government. Many have said the decisions they faced were prison, the front line in Ukraine, or Kazakhstan. They chose freedom and a chance to live.
It isn't only men who have chosen to leave Russia but women as well who have been enlisted to support the special military operation as well. While many of the younger generation disagreed with the special military operation they have remained silent for survival. However, it's clear that Putin will not stop and the younger generation who have opportunities to leave the country are doing so, so they don't get drawn into restrictive Kremlin policies.
Intercepted calls by the Ukrainian Secret Service claim that Russian soldiers have been ordered to kill everyone that they see. Perhaps that is why they have targeted civilians, and this has led to massacres and the alleged war crimes committed. We know that Putin wants to take Kyiv, and no doubt there there will be another attempt
.
Bulgaria has opposed Ukraine's fast track NATO application. The president did state that they supported Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, but did like many, fear being a part of NATO means that their country may have to do their part in the war effort. Lithuania on the other hand has urged the 30 NATO members to begin negotiations on the Ukrainian application to join NATO.
A joint investigation by Associated Press and PBS reveal that there was a Russian smuggling ring (not a surprise) that was part of the network that was stealing Ukrainian grain and profiting from it to support the Russian special military operation. It will come as no surprise that some of the entities behind this were Russian businessmen and also Russian state owned companies. AP and PBS used satellite imagery and transponder data to track ships that were making journeys from Russian occupied Ukrainian ports to the Middle East. The estimated value is around $530 million worth of Ukrainian grain that was stolen.
The kidnapped Director-General of the Zaporizhzia nuclear power plant has been freed. No further information has been released at present as to why he was detained, and how he was released.
The liberated areas of Ukraine face further danger from small hidden mines. They are in houses, in fields, booby trapped above doors, on the roofs of houses, schools,–everywhere. Teams are de-mining the areas and teaching residents how to protect themselves and what to do when they find mines.
A crowdfunder in the Czech Republic has raised $1.30 million to buy a tank for Ukraine. Nicknamed a ‘Gift for Putin’, 11, 288 people donated to purchase a modernised Soviet T-72 tank, called Tomas. The ‘gift’ arrives just in time for Putin’s 70th birthday in a couple of days.
This is on the back of the people of Lithuania who through fundraising purchased a TB-2 drone from Bayraktar. United24, the Ukrainian fundraising platform has raised $196 million which has been used to purchase drones, and helicopters while also providing funds for humanitarian causes. I wonder if Elon Musk has donated instead of wasting time on Twitter?
Elon Musk made a statement on Twitter with his proposed idea of Ukraine and Russian peace that included:
-Re do elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is the will of the people.
-Crimea formally part of Russia as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).
-Water supply to Crimea assured.
-Ukraine remains neutral
His comments led to scathing replies from world leaders and the Ukrainian government. Clearly, Musk has little idea of real life politics, where he has failed to acknowledge that Russia has not honoured many of the treaties and agreements it is signed over the past few decades. Therefore, how would anyone assume that Russia would leave the occupied regions when they have staged a sham referendum? In addition, the United Nations have no jurisdiction to supervise referendums in illegally annexed regions. The comment on Crimea is incorrect and this is misinformation, because Ukraine is a recognised sovereign state. Musk is suggesting that Ukraine give up Crimea to Russia.
As for Ukraine being neutral, surely that is a decision for the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian people to decide upon and not a car manufacturer. My own thoughts on this ridiculous tweet, is that no one should be forced to hold elections in regions where people are being held hostage by the invaders, and that absolutely nobody should recommend that Ukraine become a neutral state. The neutral states that exist already stem from treaties that were poorly negotiated after conflicts. Zelenskyy has responded with his own simple poll that you either support Ukraine or you support Russia. Musk has also responded by stating he supports Ukraine, but claims they are unlikely to win a war against Russia
Day 223 (4 October)
The Elon Musk Twitter discussion continues as Ukrainians educate Musk on matters, such as the right to defend your country, and that you can’t trust or negotiate with terrorists. Tesla shares appear to have fallen by 9% since Musk had tweeted his proposed peace plan.
North Korea has announced that they recognise the annexed regions in Ukraine and the new borders of Russia.
The Ukrainian Supreme Court has failed to gain enough votes to remove Bodhan Lvov, who is the chairman. This is because he is alleged to be a Russian citizen and holds a Russian passport.
In Russia, a convoy has been spotted transporting nuclear weapons towards the Ukrainian border. The convoy of weapons and equipment come from the 12th main directorate of the Russian ministry of defence. This is considered a course for concern when nuclear weapons are being transported to a battlefield. Is Putin prepared to test nuclear weapons, or was the transportation of the weapons meant to be a threat to the west and Ukraine?
The Ukrainian counteroffensive continues in the south where smaller settlements have been re-taken in, and as the Ukrainian troops target areas that are considered Russian supply hubs. Reports claim that they advancing towards Kherson, another annexed region, but as this is a battle in progress reports are being closely guarded for obvious reasons of security.
The Belarusian president. Lukashenka has admitted that Belarus has been participating in the war against Ukraine, but has stated that Belarus has not sent in troops and hasn't killed anyone. However, Belarus has provided an extension of territory to Russia in order to attack Ukraine from the north, and also has provided amenities and infrastructure to allow weapons to be supplied to the Russian troops, again to attack Ukraine. In essence, Belarus is protecting Russia from other countries such as Poland, Latvia and Lithuania which are all border countries
.
Reports state that a hotline that Ukraine has set up for Russian soldiers that wish to surrender has been inundated with calls. We do know that many of the newly mobilised soldiers have chosen to surrender immediately, first of all because they had no choice in being there and are likely to have had no training, secondly because they want to live and know the chances of that or slim on the front line.
The decision of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine meeting on the 30th of December 2022, regarding the actions of Ukraine in response to the Russian Federation attempt to annex the territory of Ukraine has been published. In the decision it states that it is impossible to conduct negotiations with the current president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin.
Thank you again EL your work on this war is enlightening and prodigious. Nero of France is fiddling while some countries crowd-fund to help Ukraine. Shameful.