The Putin And Biden Speeches
Russia suspends the New START nuclear arms treaty with the US, as China strengthens ties with Russia
The anniversary of the Russian Federation officially declaring that the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk were independent of Ukraine and were part of the Russian Federation was celebrated with a 2 hour speech from Putin.
In Russia, the narrative remains the same–that the West provoked the war, and that Russia had no choice but to defend itself despite no Ukrainian or NATO troops ever being on Russian soil. Those who disagree with the ‘special military operation’ must do so behind closed doors and in hushed tones or risk falling out of a window or being locked up in a prison. Neither helps the plight of the Ukrainians or helps to defend democracy.
The key message that Putin conveys is that this war will continue until the Motherland is reunited. He, and the old Soviets still believe that the USSR should be reformed, and they do not accept that Ukraine is an independent country that is recognised by the UN and other countries.
Putin announced Russia’s suspension in the New START nuclear arms treaty that was signed in 2011 and lasted for 10 years with the option to extend it by 5 years. The treaty was extended in 2021 and is in place until 4 February 2026. The treaty is supposed to prevent a nuclear war by limiting each country to 1,550 long range nuclear warheads, and each country has the power to inspect each other. When the US was denied an inspection last month, the suspension of the treaty was on the cards. What this means is that Russia wishes to use nuclear war as a threat to intimidate NATO and Ukraine. It also means that they may have breached the original terms of the treaty and have built up an arsenal of nuclear warheads in excess of what was agreed
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In his speech, Putin claimed that the Kyiv regime was the enemy and that the Nazis must be ousted, and with that rhetoric, how can any peace deal be achieved? Putin claims that it Russia’s responsibility to remove all traces of Nazis, which means the Ukrainian government in Kyiv. He claims that Ukrainians are being held hostage by the government, and that Russia is not fighting Ukrainians.
Biden’s speech in Poland reiterated the united forces of NATO and the West, and that they would continue to support Ukraine to retain its independence. His visit to Poland is a visible sign of security and reassurance to the democratic world, that the US supports the countries and has a responsibility to provide aid when necessary. He made his address outside the Royal Castle in Warsaw, the Polish capital.
We have the two Superpowers with different views on the status of Ukraine, and the alliances and treaties in place to prevent Russia from trying to reclaim former Soviet states are not working. They were a deterrent, but it takes a strong and united alliance to enforce them. The UN have been weak, afraid of escalation and NATO has been slow off the mark resulting in deaths that could have been prevented. What we have is Putin daring NATO and the US to fight for Ukraine, but how long can this continue? How many soldiers can carry on in Ukraine? Russia is mobilising all they can, and are recruiting from former Soviet states and other countries that support Russia. How can Ukraine acquire additional troops to match the Russians? Weapons are one thing, but you still need troops on the ground, and NATO has to consider this.
Day 363 (21 February)
Putin gave his State of the Nation speech today at 9 a.m., which was postponed from December. It was 2 hours long and was in Russian terms a celebration of sorts claiming that Donetsk and Luhansk had been reunited with the Motherland, as had the other occupied regions of Kharkiv, Mariupol, Kherson, and Zaporizhzia. He thanked the patriots in those regions for voting in a referendum to become part of Russia, although we know in truth that the votes were rigged and coerced as people voted with a gun pointed at them. He neglects to mention that these regions were taken by force, through collaborators who fed them information to take over the government, and where citizens were tortured, imprisoned and killed in the process. Putin calls the people of Donetsk and Luhansk ‘brothers and sisters’ and their independence is a step towards reuniting the country. There are Russians who still believe Ukraine is a part of Russia because they have been told this, and that the war is justified in reuniting the country.
In his speech, Putin praised the Russian army and sent a message that more troops were needed to defend the country, and that he would be offering benefits to soldiers including 14 days holiday. That’s not much good out of a whole year, but Putin seemed to think it was a good incentive and benefits for the families of soldiers including privileges for buying homes and pay rises. There are also claims that families of soldiers who died would benefit from a special foundation that would be set up. Those are but words, as many Russian soldiers lie dead in Ukraine when their own units didn’t even take them back, and reports claim many bodies have been cremated.
He talked of the economy and that it had not been affected by sanctions, and he was correct in that growth had been slow after Covid-19, but sanctions had not hit Russia as hard as the EU and other countries had hoped for. As I have said, sanctions rarely work when a country knows they will be imposed and they will have planned ways around the sanctions beforehand.
The blame for the war according to Putin lies in the actions of the West, the US and their allies for provoking war and escalation. References were made to the war in Afghanistan, and claimed that the West were aiming for world domination. There was no evidence that the US or any other country provoked the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. In fact, when Russia invaded Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014, the West didn’t intervene on the ground except for humanitarian aid, and the failed Minsk protocols to try and broker peace. When Crimea was annexed in 2014, the West did little to support Ukraine except to declare that the annexation was and is illegal. Putin cannot claim that the West provoked the recent invasion when the West failed to assist Ukraine in 2014.
The New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) treaty has been suspended, which is an arms control treaty between the US and Russia. It was signed in 2011 and lasted for 10 years with the option of renewal. The treaty was extended in 2021 for 5 years and is in place until 4 February 2026. Putin has declared it is now suspended, which is no surprise as an inspection under the treaty was denied a few weeks ago.
I am forced to announce today that Russia is suspended its participation in the strategic offensive arms treaty. (Putin)
This means that the US can no longer inspect the nuclear warheads, suggesting that Russia may have exceeded the limits agreed, or that they are withdrawing so as to use the nuclear warheads as a threat. It could also suggest that Russia considers the US an enemy, and with the recent rhetoric blaming the US and NATO for provoking the war, Russia is isolating itself more which is usually the precursor to a world war.
A representative of Russia in Vienna, claimed that Russia has not withdrawn from the treaty, but that participation can continue under certain circumstances, mainly Russia wanting to renegotiate terms that favour them. Stoltenberg of NATO has asked Russia to reconsider the move, and could be considered an act of provocation by the West. NATO, the EU, and the US have all condemned the move by Russia.
Putin also stated that nuclear weapons testing could resume, but only if the US starts, then they will as well. Is this another veiled threat because Russia could test weapons without anyone finding out about it officially of course.
https://www.state.gov/new-start/
Implementation: The information provided through the treaty’s implementation contributes to reducing the risk of strategic surprise, mistrust, and miscalculations that can result from excessive secrecy or decisions based on worst-case assumptions. Since the New START Treaty’s entry into force, as of February 1, 2023, the two parties have conducted:
328 on-site inspections,
25,311 notifications exchanged,
19 meetings of the Bilateral Consultative Commission, and
42 biannual data exchanges on strategic offensive arms subject to the treaty.
Treaty Duration: The treaty’s original duration was 10 years (until February 5, 2021), with the option for the Parties to agree to extend it for up to an additional five years. The United States and Russian Federation agreed on a five-year extension of New START to keep it in force through February 4, 2026. The treaty includes a withdrawal clause that is standard in arms control agreements.
The message is clear–the invasion of Ukraine will continue and additional resources will be made to carry out the special military operation. A new decree was signed permitting on the ground combat strategies to be on standby. What that means who knows? Perhaps extra troops on standby to react, or extra powers to recruit conscripts with no notice. We have already seen non-Russians who were working in Russia being forced to sign as conscripts and to fight for Russia.
Putin considers this a local and domestic conflict, disregarding Ukraine as an independent country and claiming it is part of the Russian Federation.He further claims that the West is trying to destroy Russia, but offers no evidence to back his claim. Westerns companies have chosen to leave because of sanctions and also the bad reputation they have globally if they continue to trade in Russia.
They (the West)started the war. And we used force and are using force to stop it. The Western elite do not conceal their goals to bring Russia a strategic defeat. What does it mean? It means to end us once and for all. It means they plan to turn a local conflict into a global confrontation.
We understand it exactly like that we will react to it accordingly. This is because in this case, it is about the very existence of our country. (Putin)
Putin further claims that there were attempts for a peaceful negotiation, but that meant Ukraine giving away the Donbas region as well as Crimea. The narrative that Putin is playing with is that he claims Russia was open to negotiations, but Ukraine was playing off time and trying to get weapons from the West. The deal was to allow the annexation of the Donbas, Kherson, and Mariupol was also on the brink of being occupied, and for Ukraine to agree not to join a military alliance and to remain neutral. Basically, it meant Ukraine to give them pockets of their country, and promise to leave themselves defenceless.
We were doing everything possible to solve this problem, peacefully, negotiating a peaceful way out of this difficult conflict, but behind our backs are very different scenario was being prepared.
They were just playing for time closing their eyes to political assassinations mistreatment of believers. (Putin)
He repeats the blame of the war on the West, and it’s hard to see how relations can be repaired after the war ends. The claim is that democracy and freedom are evil and the West are trying to take (steal) Ukraine away from Russia. He then claims that this is led to Russophobia, and claimed the West funded the 2014 Revolution of Dignity where Yanukovych (a pro-Russian and Putin puppet) was ousted from power by the people.
They (the West) let the genie out of the bottle.
Human sacrifice and tragedies, are not accounted by them. They must carry on stealing from everyone, disguising themselves with slogans of democracy and freedom.
He ends with the same message, that there is no Ukraine, but one Russia;
We all are the same country, one united people. We are confident and assured of a force. The truth is on our side. (Putin)
Russia has summoned the US Ambassador, Lynne Tracey to request that the US de-escalate the war by withdrawing NATO equipment and weapons to Ukraine. This comes from a claim that the US was increasing its involvement of the hostilities in Ukraine, by use of additional weapons being supplied which Russia considers as an act of aggression. She was formally handed a ‘note of protest’ from Russia.
Biden arrived in Poland for a 2 day visit around lunchtime, after the Putin speech.
In Biden’s speech, he made reference to the fight for democracy and ‘no’ to autocracy. He stated that Putin thought that the West would not be united in their support for Ukraine, and in the first few weeks he may have been correct, but the war has made NATO stronger, with countries choosing to join NATO, and relations between the allied countries has strengthened due to the numerous meetings and summits.
His main message to Putin was that ‘we stood up for democracy.’ He claimed that Russia’s fear of NATO expanding was a contributory reason for the launch of the invasion.
Democracy was too strong for Putin. (Biden)
He claims that freedom is at stake, and that, ‘Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia.’ He mentions some of the atrocities committed by the Russians, the deportation of children, using rape as a weapon, and it is clear even when the war is over, it will never be over until the alleged war crimes have been tried in a court of law. That has yet to be established still, but will be a long process.
Biden reminds everyone that Ukraine is an independent country despite what Russia believes, and the Ukrainian government was democratically elected and he represents the Ukrainian people. This contradicts the Putin version, where it is claimed the Kyiv government are holding the citizens hostages, that is what the previous pro-Russian government were doing. Biden also states that the UN also condemns the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Biden speaks to the Russian people, telling them that the West has no plans to attack Russia and there is no plot to take over the world, and that the war was no necessary as Putin claims. He reminds them that Putin started the war and can end it by stopping the invasion. Ukraine has a right to defend itself, and that is why the West is providing defensive support.
On NATO, Biden states that NATO is not only a defensive coalition, but one that promotes and builds peace and respect around the world. People, especially he Russians need to choose between chaos or stability, democracy or to be ruled by a dictator.
Biden ends his speech:
Let us move forwards with faith and conviction and with an abiding commitment to be allies, not out of darkness but out of light. (Biden)
Trilateral talks between Ukraine, NATO, and the EU have been held for the first time. The aim is to speed up delivery of arms and supplies to support the defence of Ukraine. In addition, there will be joint production of ammunition as stocks have bene depleted across NATO countries, and there needs to be co-ordinated training for soldiers and pilots to operate the weapons being supplied by the allied countries.
The Ukrainian courts have banned Party of Regions, the pro-Russian political party headed by Viktor Yanukovych.
There have been further arrests of traitors in Ukraine. A representative of the Belarus KGB who took part in hostile actions in Kharkiv and Kramatorsk against Ukraine was captured in September 2022 and was given a sentence of 10 years in prison. In Kyiv Oblast, a village head was detained who had aided the Russians with routes into Kyiv to mount an attack at the start of the invasion.
Day 364 (22 February)
Wang Yi of China has had a busy day in Moscow, meeting the Kremlin’s Security Chief (Nikolai Patrushev), Foreign Minister (Lavrov) and Putin himself in one day. Talks have revolved around trading ties with Russia (as Russia is now dependent on trade from China), and China is seeking to strengthen and deepen relations with Russia and will draw up new agreements.
Yi has stated that relations between China and Russian will not be dictated to by other countries and that China seeks to strengthen relations. This is a clear indication that they will support Russia should the war extend outside of Ukraine. The two men sat next to each other and shook hands, unlike other meeting with other foreign ministers where long tables have enabled the parties to keep their distance. The optics are that China and Russia trust each other and that Russia can be trusted! It has been announced that President Xi Jinping will visit Putin in the coming months.
Russia and China remain determined and committed to a multi-polar world with no hegemonies. (Yi to Lavrov)
Biden met with the Bucharest Nine – another alliance made up of Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, and the Czech Republic. They are the eastern NATO members, and who have with the exception of Hungary played prominent roles in providing local support to Ukraine. During the visit, there will be discussions on the additional NATO presence in Poland due to the delivery of Leopard tanks from the tank coalition among other activities. Poland has been the main route into Ukraine for NATO equipment, and also visiting ministers from other countries.
Biden reiterates that every inch of NATO will be defended.
The EU will meet in Brussels to discuss further sanctions against Russia.
In Moscow, there are rallies to promote the Russian army, and Putin has made a speech to encourage the Russians to support the special military operation. A concert was held in the Luzhniki stadium to celebrate Fatherland Day which is tomorrow. It is to show patriotism and allegedly people have been bused in from rural areas to bump up attendance numbers and paid 500 rubles to attend. Students have been given the day off if they attend, with incentives of free food, study credits, and other gifts. Flyers have advertised the incentives to attend, but no one is permitted to wear blue and yellow, the colours of the Ukrainian flag.
Ukrainian schools have moved to remote learning with the increased risk of missile attacks as the first anniversary of the invasion approaches.
Missile strikes have been aimed at Kharkiv infrastructure leading to injuries. Russia will not stop, but as the anniversary approaches it is a tense time as Ukraine prepares itself for a Russian attack.
Russia has stated in order for the New START to resume, the US must consider its concerns and requests. “Everything will depend on the position of the West.” (Peskov). Russia has said it will still comply with the number of nuclear missile carries that can be deployed until 2026. However, without inspections there can be no guarantee of the statement.
Ukraine had identified 91 Russians involved in the Bucha massacre.
Romania has summoned the Russian ambassador to inform them that Romania will be suspending the activities of the Russian Centre for Culture and Science in Romania. This is because the centre has been responsible for propaganda and harmful disinformation to justify the invasion of Ukraine.
Zelenskyy is reported to be planning to attend the NATO summit in Vilnius on 11-12 July 2023.
Russia may be trusted but ONLY by China.