There is a lot going on in the world right now, much of it unstable and uncomfortable; we still have Covid variants spreading around the world, coupled with the flu bound to be more deaths related to Covid as people become complacent with vaccinations, there is the threat of the war expanding outside of Ukraine with Belarus and Iran assisting Russia, and in the UK we have political turmoil as another coup to remove a Prime Minister appears to have succeeded.
The latter is an important issue on a global scale, because whoever is the Prime Minister of the UK will effectively become a war minister as well. There are rumours that there was a coup by Rishi Sunak to remove Liz Truss as Prime Minister, and that may well be the case because we know that there was a coup to remove Boris Johnson. The problem in the House of Commons is that MPs can't see outside of their own bubble, and what their constituents, the people who are let them actually want. When it came to the choice between Sunak and Truss, the latter was the favourite by default as it was anyone but Sunak. The media would have you believe that Sunak is the front runner again, but they got it wrong last time, and they haven't read the room of the People again.
If Conservative MPs want to retain their seats and their jobs then they would be wise to listen to the constituents, and not support Sunak. If they choose to support Sunak publicly they may as well start looking for a new job now before they get ousted. As for the return of Boris Johnson, it's a little sooner than I expected, but we have to look at how other world leaders view the leadership in the UK.
Overnight it was noted that a Russian politician (Dmitry Medvedev) publicly mocked Liz Truss, and Elon Musk joined in which makes you wonder who Musk actually supports? I can imagine that Putin was rubbing his hands with glee when Truss was elected Prime Minister, and should Boris return, I can imagine that Putin would be throwing a few tantrums. He would obviously prefer Sunak, who can be bought and who has been rumoured to have business links with China. (The joke in the media was who would last longer— a lettuce or Truss as Prime Minister)
Sometimes when one must vote, they must vote tactically what is best for the country for the safety and security, as well as the economy. Put it this way, most world leaders would be more fearful of Boris than Sunak, just as well leaders were more afraid of Margaret Thatcher than they were afraid of John Major.
A weak leader, or one that other world leaders consider weak destabilises the country and makes it vulnerable. That is what Sunak's coups have done in order for him to try to get the top job. From what I've seen, from interviews that MPs have given, is that their constituents have told them that they want Boris back. As they represent the will of their constituents, they need to put aside their own personal ambitions and likes or dislikes if they are truly carrying out their jobs. Mordaunt has put herself forward as a potential leader again, but we know that is unrealistic. Whilst she is seen to be a decent politician, she is inexperienced for the crisis we are in, Putin will throw a party, and the country would be seen as weak and unstable. The papers are full of story saying Sunak is the leader, but that is because they have spoken to MPs who have willingly gone on record to show their support. The wise do not need to publicise support, because we have seeing MPs support one candidates only to backtrack a few days later which makes them look foolish.
The new leader will be voted in on the 28th of October 2022, and it matters a great deal to the war in Ukraine, the G7 and NATO. A strong leader (Johnson) would bolster the war effort, and a weak leader would make the UK vulnerable, and weaken the alliances. I see this as a case of people thinking they can do a better job, but then when they're faced with the reality of it they realise that they didn't have the ability.
There is also an amount of arrogance in the House of Commons, whereas many people don't like Boris, but they knew he had the ability to lead. You don't necessarily have to like your boss if you know that they do a good job and get the job done. He sorted through the very difficult issues of Brexit and COVID-19 at the same time, plus handling the diplomacy of the war in Ukraine, and made some personal mistakes along the way. I find that people that use ‘party gate’ as an excuse need to look at the bigger picture – how many people knew others that broke or bent the COVID-19 rules? Nearly all of us know someone who has done so whether consciously or subconsciously. It is after all better the Devil you know, to help sort through a crisis.
Day 241 (22 October)
The Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant which is a dam, has been occupied by the Russians since March 2022. There are fears from intelligence that the Russians are planning to blow up the dam, and the flood would affect the Dnipro river, which has been used for a method of transportation is for the Ukrainian troops, the flooding would also mean the water supply for the Zaporizhzia power plant would be lost, it would cut off the water supplies for the region, and flood settlements and villages. The destruction of the dam would also prevent the Ukrainian troops from pursuing them, and would create a buffer zone barrier, basically like a self-destruct system. It would be a rather dire case of ‘if we can't occupy the land then nobody can’, and they will just destroy everything there
The Ukrainians are publicising these claims, hopefully to avert a major catastrophe and has called upon the UN to provide observers and monitors. The UN has yet to make any statement.
The belief is that the Russians will detonate the dam after they have left in order to create a false flag situation and blame the Ukrainians. This is a very dangerous situation where tens of thousands of people could lose their lives, suffer, infrastructure will be damaged, villages will be wiped out or flooded, not to mention the ecological damage done to the land. The question is now, what will the UN do before it is too late?
The son of an ally of Putin's was detained in Norway for filming material in a restricted area using several drones. This was reported earlier in the week, but as to why he was filming no one actually knew at the time that the man had links with Putin. Andrei Yakunin (British-Russian), is the son of Vladimir Yakunin, who was the boss of the Russian Railways and who is friends with Putin. This is the seventh Russian to be arrested for illegally photography in Norway. This particular drone was in Svalbard archipelago in the Artic region, which is a restricted area
.
The Iranian drone issue continues, where Iran has denied supplying Russia with drones, but also opposes any UN experts to examine the drones. If the Iranians have nothing to hide, then they should welcome a neutral UN inspection that would absolve them of any blame. Only the guilty would oppose an inspection, a little like how an inspection of all Olenivka has also been denied. Iran has also condemned the sanctions imposed against individuals and entities, claiming that they had not supplied drones to Russia.
There has been another humanitarian crisis with the Russians deliberately stalling exports from Ukrainian ports across the Black Sea. This has been going on for a couple of weeks now where 150 ships are stuck waiting to gain access to the Black Sea ports. This again is because Russia wishes to renegotiate the UN grain blockade deal to try and get sanctions lifted against Russian exports. The items in question, which are fertilisers and grain have never actually been sanctioned, but Russia is trying to get sanctions lifted on other items such as raw materials. To bypass this they have used third-party countries such as Belarus to purchase the raw materials they need for weapons.
Satellite images show that the Wagner group have 2 km tank fortifications in eastern Ukraine (Hirske), called the Wagner line. This indicates that Russia has no intention of retreating and or continuing to attempt to occupy regions of Ukraine.
The extradition of Andriy Naumov, a former head of department in the internal security of the SBU from Serbia is being sought. He left Ukraine on 23 February 2022, a few hours before the invasion began. There are a number of charges he is being investigated for, treason being one of them and also money laundering. He is suspected of passing information to the Russians on Chernobyl security systems, and Zelenskyy also stripped him of his rank of general for failing to adhere to his oath of allegiance to the country.
Ukraine has requested UN observers for the Kakhovka dam, which is under Russian occupation. There are fears that the Russians will cause a catastrophe after they have retreated from Kherson, creating a false flag situation where they can try to blame Ukraine for the incident. This is why the Russians are trying to evacuate all the residents, knowing that many settlements and villages will be flooded it's not a good luck to abandon what they consider their new citizens.
The defence secretaries of the US and Russia spoke in a phone call which is the first time they have spoken since the 13th of May 2022. Issues for discussion were the ongoing situation in Ukraine, and the importance of keeping the lines of communication open. Unlike previous conversations there was no mention of a ceasefire, basically because we know that it's not going to happen. The lines of communication have been kept open due to the threat of a nuclear war, due to Putin's threats. Putin and Biden have not spoken since the invasion began. G 20 summit in Indonesian next month will be attended by both men, but there are no plans for them to have a meeting to date.
Ukraine has been attacked by Russian missiles for nearly 2 weeks now, and blackouts have become the norm already. Electricity is being restricted and water supplies are being disrupted with some areas been cut off altogether. Ukrenergo, the national electricity operator has had to limit supplies in several regions since Thursday 20th October 2022. These include Kyiv, Lviv, with blackouts in Odesa and Cherkasy. Power supplies have been cut to 672,000 households in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, 188,400 in Mykolaiv Oblast, 102,000 in Volyn Oblast, 242,000 in Cherkasy Oblast, 174,790 in Rivne Oblast, 61,913 in Kirovohrad Oblast, and 10,500 in Odesa Oblast.
In Cherkasy, the Russians targeted the depot that contained more than 100,000 tons of aviation fuel for the Ukrainian air forces. This kind of information might have been passed on by Russian proxies.
Where is the Red Cross and the UN when they are needed? They have suspended the operations to 2 security concerns for the staff.
The Russians have destroyed 90% of the wind power in Ukraine and 50% of the solar power so far. The war is destroying the green energy that has been implemented to help save the planet.
Some Russian men are speaking out stating they would rather go to prison than having to go to fight in Ukraine. They are stating that Russia is not under threat, but if it was they would sign up to defend their country. They do not see that Ukraine is a threat to Russia with the special military operation.
The US Army’s 101st Airborne Division have been deployed to Europe for the first time since the Second World War. They have stated while they are assisting with military drills, they are ready for action if necessary. Recently, they have been carrying out military drills in conjunction with Romania and are part of the defence line from Poland to Ukraine. The elite squadron are known as the ‘Screaming Eagles’ and the liberating unit, having been part of the D-Day landings back during the Second World War.
Day 242 (23 October)
Yesterday, I watched a documentary filmed by a reporter in Kherson and it gave me an insight as to why some people didn't leave the area as soon as it is occupied by the Russians. Many had hoped that the invasion would've been over within a couple of weeks, but it wasn't. They had been allowed to protest for several weeks and it wasn't until the end of March that the Russians started to detain people, when they realised that the Russians had inside help occupying the city so quickly. That became apparent when the Russian installed leaders took over so easily and quickly.
In the documentary, the funeral of the Ukrainian soldier was also filmed. At the time they were concerns that the Russians were watching, and they were and taking note of who attended. The Father was later detained by the Russians, but was returned. A few weeks later he posted on social media that he had escaped from the area because he had been tortured and threatened by the Russians if he did not become a collaborator. We can only imagine the thousands of other Ukrainians that were probably threatened with rape and tortured if they did not cooperate or become a collaborator.
The reporter filmed at great risk to himself and his family, and showed us his journey to escape. His family accompanied by his pregnant sister and her husband made it through the checkpoints, three months after the occupation because they had a young child, and because his sister was pregnant. He also gave the reasons as to why people didn't leave earlier, there was hope that the Ukrainian troops would liberate them quickly, there was the cost as well as money could not afford the escape routes, and he also stated that some people were just given to the Russians as long as they had an easy life. That is a kind of apathy that exists in many places, where people don't care who is in control as long as they have heat, water, cheap food supplies, and are left alone to live how they want. What they fail to understand is that being complacent enables occupiers, such as the Russians to continue to occupy other areas.
The Russians are now deliberately creating a humanitarian crisis, by destroying nearly a third of the power resources in Ukraine during winter. Effectively they are killing people through hunger, and through cold. What is the UN doing about this? I sigh because the Red Cross have suspended their operations in Ukraine, when they are needed the most. What is the answer? The weapons that the west have supplied to Ukraine have helped them defend themselves, but it's not enough to win the war. Not only will be difficult to repair the destruction caused by the Russian missile attacks that have now been going on for nearly 2 weeks, the Russians will continue with them until the west supplies weapons that can stop them. Ukraine has managed to shoot down many of the missiles while they were still in the air, but they simply do not have the technology to stop all of them.
Why is Kherson so important? Geographically, it is the region that adjoins Crimea and that would give land access to mainland Ukraine for the Russians. That is why the Russians are holding onto the area, and why Ukraine needs to liberate the region. By isolating Kherson, stripping it of electricity, water, Internet on, and all communications, Ukrainians cannot share any tactical information will also make movement much more difficult.
The G7 has condemned the detention of staff at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and have called for the Russians to return control of the power plant to the Ukrainians. While these statements are all ideal and politically correct, they do nothing because the Russians had taken control of the power plant since March 2022. The problem is nobody did anything back in March, so making statements six months later is going to have zero effect. The kidnappings are not a surprise either, but having IAEA observers present whilst this happened makes the UN look weak and powerless. One wonders why they didn't kidnap staff earlier, perhaps they didn't need to, but to do it in the presence of UN representatives is good for Russian propaganda, and show the Russian public that Putin is control, and the West is weak and feeble.
Those in Belarus who oppose the Russian invasion of Ukraine are in a difficult situation because the current government to support Putin's actions. We know that the troops from Belarus cross over the border into Ukraine, then there will be no turning back. Effectively that will mean another country has participated actively and thus creates a world war officially. We must also remember that Ukraine is defending its own land they are fighting on their own territory. There have been no reports or indications of any threats to Belarus, and Belarus has been unable to show any evidence of any threats either. Zelenskyy has even given assurances that Ukraine has not threatened nor does it intend to threaten Belarus their neighbour.
Lithuania has also backed up the claim that Belarus are actively participating in the war against Ukraine. For a world leader to State that there is evidence that another country is participating in the war is a bold claim. Gitanas Nauseda is urging tougher sanctions against Russia and Belarus. As a neighbouring state, what happens in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia affects them greatly.
Many defence experts are looking at how this war can end, and what Ukraine needs to win. The overwhelming consensus is that ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) are needed rather than HIMARS that have a shorter target range. This is because they can target convoys that approach the troops more accurately, but the allies have been reluctant to supply such weapons with reservations that the weapons may be used or into Russian territory, escalating the war. What they fail to realise is that by choosing not to supply the weapons they are prolonging the war, and failed to accept that Russia has escalated the war already by the use of Belarusian troops and weapons.
The Centre of National Resistance has claimed that Iranians instructors were seen in Belarus helping to coordinate Shahed – 136 drones targeting Kyiv and northern Ukraine. Instructors are said to come from the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who are training Russian troops in Belarus.
If this information is accurate, then it puts Iran in a very difficult position as they have denied supplying weapons or assisting the Russians in anyway. This is unlike NATO forces that have openly supplied weapons to Ukraine, and who have trained the soldiers in the UK and the USA, and not on Ukrainian territory.
Further evidence has shown that the Iranian instructors are in Mykulichi in the Gomel region, under under the protection of the Russian National Guard. In addition FSB officers were seen with the Iranians.
The Russian Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu has spoken to the UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, and also with the French (Sebastien Lecornu) and Turkish (Hulusi Akar) defence ministers. In addition, there was another call to the US Pentagon chief today—twice in one week. The concerns about a nuclear attack cannot be ignored, which is why the lines of communication must be kept open at all times
Sergei Shoigu has also claimed that Ukraine has a dirty bomb that they are planning to use. He has made this claim to the British, French, and Turkish defence ministers. This appears to be another false flag propaganda attempt by the Russians. The Ukrainian government have obviously called the claims absurd.
Ukrainian security service has confirmed the arrest of the boss of Motor Sich. Vyacheslav Boguslayev it's been charged with treason and embezzlement, as it has been claimed he has provided Russia with engines for Russian combat helicopters (Mi-8, Ka-52, and Mi-28 that attacked Ukraine. Evidence of the parts were found on Russian helicopters that had been downed.
The former Russian UN diplomat, who is exile and is in hiding, has stated:
Putin would sacrifice 20 million Russian soldiers to win the war with Ukraine and ensure his political survival. He is prepared to see more than a 10th of the population killed in the conflict. (Boris Bondarev)
A Russian academic and economist has written an article that claims 'mobilisation' or rather conscription is taking the country back in time to a less capitalist and more totalitarian government. He predicts that it will take decades for the economy to recover and since mobilisation and Russians disappearing to avoid being 'recruited', GDP is down 10%. It is since mobilisation that everyday Russians are aware of the impact of the 'military operation' in Ukraine and its impact on their familie's livelihoods and survival. We don't care if it will end Putin's career, however he's a madman who won't accept defeat; which means he will devise extreme 'war crimes' as Russians protest. I haven't noted the source, but it was mentioned that the economist was taking a huge risk publishing in Russia. Talks of over by winter.
As a Canadian viewing UK politics from afar, looking at tonight's news it appears Rishi Sunak could (will ?) be appointed Prime Minister of the UK. If as E-L says, Putin would prefer Sunak, who is rumoured to have business links with China, that is worrying at any time but especially in the dire case involving Ukraine.