The Issue Of Iran and Belarus Supporting Russia
Russia continues to launch missiles aimed at Ukrainian infrastructure
The last few days have seen the same stories being discussed as they develop. Ukrainian power grids are being patched up as blackouts continue, Russia carries on launching missiles, other countries send weapons in batches, NATO keeps saying they aren’t involved, and discussions for a special court/tribunal to hold trials for the war crimes committed by the Russians continues.
The winter is brutal in Ukraine, and no Russian soldiers would look forward to fighting, while the hardy Ukrainians do this for their liberty and freedom. They at least have a purpose, spirit and hope. What is of concern are the countries that have supported Russia, and who are now openly doing so. This means it would be very difficult for NATO to turn a blind eye with their vision that it is Ukraine defending itself against Russia. With the recent agreements, it may mean Ukraine is defending itself against Russia, Iran, and Belarus. Can NATO then ignore things and continue to do the bare minimum?
Day 289 (9 December)
Ilya Yashin was sentenced to 8.5 years in prison for criticising the Russia army and Kremlin, and was accused of spreading false information about the special military operation in Russia.
Intelligence suggests that Iran has supplied Russia with a new batch of drones having depleted their stocks with the ongoing attacks. While Iran has claimed that they did supply Russian with drones, it was prior to 24 February 2022, they cannot use that defence again if Russia emerges with a new supply of drones that could only have been recently manufactured. Independent observers can tell from the debris, and when the components were manufactured.
These would be Shahed-131s and 136s that were used on 6 December 2022 and targeted Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia. The last attacks using these drones was on 17 November 2022, therefore, it is concluded that Russia received a new supply during those 2 weeks.
Russia and Belarus have signed a classified agreement on regional security issues. While there are many Belarusians who support Ukraine, the current government supports Putin.
The US has concerns (as we all do) over the defence alliance between Russia and Iran, citing it is harmful to Ukraine, the world and the Iranian neighbours. This has been on the cards since August 2022, and is no surprise. The issue is that it becomes a world war officially when countries choose sides. NATO and the UN can’t sit on their hands and make statements that do nothing as they have done, because more than one country is effectively supporting and aiding an aggressor with weapons to attack a sovereign state.
The issue of the US supplying long range air missiles to Ukraine continues, as the world realises that protecting the skies is necessary. The US and other countries will be helping to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine, but money doesn’t not bring back the dead or avert the winter suffering. Prevention is better than cure, and if the US is spending their own money on helping to rebuild Ukraine, then they are better off preventing the damage in the first place
Bakhmut has been destroyed by the Russians, even though there seems to be no reason to attack the city. The Wagner group is in charge there and seems to be some kind of symbolic attack and gives them a ‘win’ after the recent retreat in Kherson.
In Zaporizhzia, more staff have been tortured in the power plant according to Energoatom. Managers have previously been kidnapped and detained, others have been threatened and now some have been beaten and tortured. The IAEA keeps pushing for a safe zone and for the Russian to leave the plant, but the Russians have refused, and refuse to have a third party in control of the plant (IAEA). The Russians have what they want, and they have no incentive to leave or to handover control to the IAEA.
More Moscow Orthodox churches in Ukraine have been searched and have uncovered Russian propaganda and passports. They have been sheltering pro-Kremlin proxies and the churches have been used as a sanctuary and hiding place for them to organise anti-Ukrainian activities.
Ukraine has announced the launch of an international mission to monitor the conditions of Ukrainians in Russian captivity. This should be a remit of the ICRC, but they have abandoned some of their responsibilities, and it is left to Ukraine to seek ways to protect its citizens. The very least the UN can do is back the initiative as they have let pretty much the world down in their handling of the war—in terms of failing to prevent it, and also to put an end to it through failures to remove Russia’s power to veto UN resolutions.
Stoltenberg for NATO finally exclaimed he was concerned that the war in Ukraine would extend outside of the country (no kidding) and that it would be a Russia v NATO war. This is what Russia already considers it to be, and we all know that only the united forces of NATO can put an end to Putin’s regime in Russia.
Reports claim that Putin’s inner circle and supporters are making a backup plan to evacuate Russia if Putin loses power. They are buying up land in Venezuela and seeking documents to allow passage there in the event of an emergency. Argentina and Venezuela were considered safe places for evacuation, and Venezuela had expressed support for Putin in March 2022.
The project has been in place since February 2022, and is called ‘Noahs Ark’.
Day 290 (10 December)
Images of the Griner and Bout swap have been released, and Russia has said it is open to more prisoner swaps. They said that they were in control and said it was Griner or nothing, whereas Whelan would have been a better option. Griner made a stupid mistake and admitted to her crime. I don’t have any sympathy for someone who doesn’t check the rules and carries items that are deemed illegal in the country they are visiting, who then get caught.
Reports claim that Iran’s alliance with Russia will continue to grow as they continue to supply weapons to Russia. What is in it for Iran? Perhaps defence ties and shared intelligence and training? Russia can provide Iran with advanced components and other equipment such as helicopters. It is possible that Iran may supply ballistic missiles to be used against Ukraine, and the other international alliances must decide how to respond. Some have initiated sanctions against Iranian entities already, but is that enough?
Norway will provide $100 million via the Ukraine Relief, Recovery, Reconstruction and Reform Trust Fund (URTF) to help pay for the repairs to the damaged infrastructure in Ukraine caused by the Russian missile attacks.
The US is conflicted over sending more heavy weapons to Ukraine in the event that NATO may end up fighting against Russia and that they will be left with a low supply of weapons.
The US considers the growing relationship between Iran as Russia as an act of escalation, and are considering ways to ‘disrupt’ the activities, by which I assume this means sanctions.
The G7 has called upon Ukraine to select independent experts for their Constitutional Court in order to prevent corruption and to prevent the president to have full control of the court.
External analysts are finally beginning to accept that Russia has no wish to negotiate while Putin is control, and that there can be no negotiated peace deal with him in charge. Besides this, Ukraine needs security assurances that Russia will not invade again, and that cannot be achieved with Putin in charge.