The Investigation Into The Missile That Landed in Przewodów, Poland
NATO state they are not involved in this war, while Poland reinforces their defences
Most of the last couple of days has centred around the missile that landed in Poland, which killed 2 Polish civilians. I’ve been watching how the world leaders and international alliances have reacted, the public, and also the media and political analysts. To say it is confusing is an understatement and I decided to hold back on commenting until at least a day had passed. These are my own personal views on what has happened over the past couple of days on the Polish incident.
There are few facts that we know of, and I believe we should stick to these before making observations, or statements. I believe the statements made by NATO (Stoltenberg), Biden (US) and the Polish Prime Minister were cautious and unsafe. When you use the word ‘likely’ and ‘probable’ what do you mean? Do you know, or are you hiding something because you don’t want to ‘upset the Russians or Ukrainians’?
The media was awash with the statements from the above three saying that the missile was ‘likely’ to have been an unfortunate accident when Ukraine was defending itself from missiles from Russia. They claim it was because of the ‘evidence’ that they managed to assemble in the dark in a matter of hours, and that the trajectory was not consistent with a missile from Russia.
Ukraine on the other hand (who is a lot closer to the scene) has stated it was not them because they know exactly where all their air defence systems are and what has been fired and where.
Who are we supposed to believe? I refrained from making any comment because we should wait for the evidence to be analysed and investigated. I believe it was foolhardy and stupid for Biden and Stoltenberg to make vague comments without any evidence to back their statements, and if they had the evidence to at least present it to Ukraine before making an accusation.
So herein is the status of things IMHO—NATO have never wanted to be involved in this war and have stated that they are not associated with the two parties (Ukraine and Russia), and they will do whatever is necessary NOT to escalate the war and NOT to get NATO troops actively involved.
The US is basically running NATO unofficially and we all know that, and they are main country that are supplying aid and weapons.
Both the US and NATO were reluctant to provide military aid to Ukraine, and didn’t do so until 6 weeks into the war, when Stoltenberg made the first statement on the war for NATO.
The Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, and the President, Andrzej Duda have said that the missile found was Russian made, and early on requested assistance from NATO and Duda also spoke to Biden on the day. As Poland is a member of NATO, they seemed to be deferring to NATO and the US to tell them what to do, and that was basically, ‘Don’t upset the Russians as it will lead to escalation’.
We don’t actually know the truth yet, and if it was a Ukrainian missile that was launched to intercept, then there will be also be fragments of the Russian missile, which stands to reason. That is unless the self-destruct failed to activate, but there would still be a Russian missile nearby.
All parties (Poland, US, and NATO) have also stated that it was ‘likely’ to be be a Ukrainian missile that hit Poland, but it was not intentional (no need to invoke Article 4 of the NATO Charter), and that it was an accident, and that they did not blame Ukraine, but Russia for starting the war. Ukraine would not be firing missiles if Russia was not attacking them. This to me is a kind of sop—blame Ukraine (as someone must be responsible) but say it’s not their fault, and they know that can control Ukraine because they are offering weapons and support to Ukraine. In turn, Russia is not provoked, the war is not escalated which makes NATO and the US happy. Poland appears to be doing as it is told to keep the peace.
The result is that Russia has ‘thanked’ the US for their statement, for stating that Ukraine is the culprit, and this is now propaganda the Russians can use against Ukraine. It doesn’t matter that Biden said that Ukraine wasn’t to blame, because they had to defend themselves, as the Russians pick and choose what they wish to share. That is why it was dangerous to make a vague statement with little to no evidence to support it.
There are people around the world making up their own conclusions with bits here and there, and there are criticisms that if the US had provided better air defence systems then accidents would be less likely to happen (the US has refused to supply long range air defence systems). Far right groups that don’t want the US to provide weapons or aid to Ukraine have called Zelenskyy a war criminal, and have called for aid to cease. Others have accused Ukraine of a deliberate attempt to start WW III, not realising it has begun, but the fighting has not extended outside of Ukraine yet.
What about the Russian missiles that landed in Moldova? The weren’t Ukrainian ones, and the Russians admit it, but because Moldova isn’t a NATO member no one seems to care. It shows that Russian missiles can stray over the border and it was expected.
How do things stand? Ukraine deny it was their missile that landed in Poland and say they have evidence, and wish to be included in the investigation (some say it is to conceal evidence, but Ukraine can also identify their own weapons). If they are to be accused of something, then they should be allowed to observe the investigations at the very least to ensure there is no cover up (they have now been permitted to participate).
I have pretty much zero faith in the integrity of NATO from their recent actions—slow to react or respond to anything, and they lack the ability to preempt situations. This situation was earmarked from the start, yet there seemed to be no measures in place to respond. About these alleged NATO border defences—well, all I can say is that they have failed miserably. NATO will do the bare minimum, and will get out of having to be involved in the war in any way they can.
The bottomline is that no one should have accused Ukraine or Russia of firing the missile until an investigation of the evidence had been completed. The fact that NATO and the US went shooting their mouths off in an attempt to defuse the situation with the Russians, has actually made things worse politically. They fail to realise how many people are out there who will turn this against Ukraine and Ukrainians around the world. What they also have done is publicly cleared Russia without a full investigation. People remember what was said first, and no one wants Article 5 invoked. That may appear to be neutral, but false flags exist, and it has not stopped Russia firing more missiles across Ukraine. If it was a Russian accident, then how will NATO respond?
I have very few good things to say about Macron, but at least he had the sense not to state an opinion either way until the investigation had been completed. What these careless statements have done (in a bid to appease Russia, and to de-escalate tensions) is to create new tensions aimed at hostilities against Zelenskyy and Ukraine. Poland is in a difficult situation, as it is has borders with Ukraine and the Russian enclave Kaliningrad too, it has been the main refugee centre for Ukrainians fleeing the country, and has also been one of the key countries to supply weapons and aid to Ukraine. How will the Poles view this, as in Ukraine is to blame, but this will be written off as an accident?
Is there a possibility of a false flag situation? It can’t be ruled out as it would be advantageous to Russia—they want the allies to stop sending weapons and aid, and if countries are reluctant to take in refugees, then Ukrainians will suffer and be trapped. Understandably, the border countries have been, and are wary that missiles can stray over the border, but NATO and the US are controlling things to some extent by choosing which weapons to provide, and what defences along the borders they wish to take up. Obviously they failed to provide sufficient border controls along the western front of Ukraine and Poland.
There is also the possibility that the self-destruct mechanism in the air to surface defence missiles failed to act, then who is at fault? The US for failing to give Ukraine more up to date equipment that they requested?
Day 266 (16 November)
Martial law is extended in Ukraine for another 90 days until 19 February 2023.
The Polish Foreign Minister summoned the Russian Ambassador to explain the situation regarding the missile that landed in Poland. The first reports from Poland state that the missile appeared to have been Russian made, but did not blame Russia for launching the missile. The missile landed in Przewodów, Poland at 15:40 local time on 15 November 2022.
In return, the polish Ambassador was summoned in Moscow to explain the over reaction to the incident.
We do not have any conclusive evidence at the moment as to who launched this missile. It was most likely a Russian made missile, but this is all still under investigation at the moment. (Duda)
Pieces of Russian missiles and a Ukrainian interception missile have been recovered in Poland as the investigation continues.
Ukraine calls for a joint investigation as it has been the target of missile attacks, and, expects the allies to provide evidence of the suggestions that the missile originated from Ukrainian air defences, for you cannot accuse a country without evidence rather than hypothetical circumstantial evidence. Poland, NATO and the US issued statements suggesting that the missile originated from Ukrainian defence systems, but that it was not intentional and was at best and unfortunate accident.
The parties stated that they did not blame Ukraine, and that Russia was to blame for starting the war. However, that did not stop the propaganda wheel from spinning, where reporters were accused of being Russian lackeys, and where the Russians used this to their advantage to discredit Ukraine. At one point, the Russians were thanking the US for stating their innocence, all before an official investigation had even taken place let alone been completed. It also provided fuel for the conspiracy theorists who believe that Russia wants to provoke NATO, or that Ukraine wants to provoke NATO. The former so that Russia can criticise NATO, and the latter in order to acquire more weapons.
Ukraine had originally blamed Russia, which Russia denied. Some have criticised Zelenskyy’s quick remark, but Ukraine wouldn’t fire at Poland, and his information that his army had given him had told him that Ukrainian forces had not launched missiles in the area. Perhaps Zelenskyy should have waited, and his subsequent remarks have been measured and said that a full investigation must be completed as no one knows for sure what actually happened. Mistakes do happen, and missiles crossing over the borders are expected during a war.
Poland did not request a NATO meeting under Article 4 as they did not consider their security was being threatened.
In the NATO press briefing, Stoltenberg claimed that there did not seem to be an indication that Russia was attacking Poland, or that Russia is mounting an attack against NATO. These are words to appease Russia of course, because in seriousness, how much information can they glean in less than 24 hours? It took him 6 weeks to comment on the invasion and there was evidence of multiple attacks.
He also claimed that the blast was ‘most likely’ and probably caused by Ukrainian defence systems, but conceded that investigations were ongoing. Why make a claim when you don't have sufficient evidence to back it up, basing it on preliminary evidence? Why throw the blame onto Ukraine, knowing that they have to be grateful to you for support and that you can actually control Ukraine through this? The preliminary evidence indicates it was not characteristic of an attack, but you can’t build up a full picture without all the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle. A partial picture built on speculation is harmful when it is vague. It may well have been a Ukraine air defence system, but the correct thing to do is wait until there is concrete proof of this before making the assertion.
Was it an attempt to de-escalate things, and to avoid provoking Russia? The result is that they have provoked Ukraine and open the door for Russian propaganda puppets to use against Ukraine. He can't turn back the clock on this, and it will go down in history as to whether NATO should have given a neutral statement and to await the results of the investigation before making speculative comments that they fail to anticipate would create disharmony.
Most of my readers will know that I have little regard or respect for NATO in its current iteration, as they have been seen to be weak with a lack of response as a military alliance. The only thing they have really done is to try and avoid getting involved in the war, and made excuses not to assist wherever possible. It really begs the question as to why NATO is functional, and has become one of those alliances in name only that is supposed to deter others.
Quotes from the Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, and the President, Andrzej Duda on the missile in Przewodow, Poland.
It is very likely that a missile explosion was caused by Ukrainian air defences. (Duda)
There was no sign that the missile that hit a village was an intentional attack on Poland. Instead it was probably an unfortunate incident.
From the information that we and our allies have, it was an S-300 rocket made in the Soviet Union an old rocket and there is no evidence that it was launched by the Russian side. It is highly probable that the missile was launched by Ukrainian anti aircraft defence. (Duda)
We decided to increase the combat readiness of selected units of the Polish armed forces with particular emphasis on airspace monitoring.
Poland has set up additional checkpoints across the borders with Russia, and has erected barbed wired fencing to prevent any Russian refugees entering the country, in a potential bid to cause chaos.
Quotes from the US (Biden) on the missile in Przewodow, Poland.
There is preliminary information that contest that (when asked if the missile was fired from Russia). I don't want to say that until we completely investigate. But it is – I – it's unlikely, in the minds of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia. But we'll see.
I'm going to make sure we find out exactly what happened. And then we're going to collectively determine our next step as we investigate. We're going to continue to support Ukraine as long as Russia continues their aggression.
THE PRESIDENT: Thanks for being here. I — as you saw, I just met with the leaders of NATO and the G7 and — to talk about the latest events in Europe, and I briefed them on my discussions with President Duda of Poland, as well as NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg. And we agreed to support Poland’s investigation into the explosion in rural Poland, near the Ukrainian border. And I’m going to make sure we figure out exactly what happened.
Our empathy — sympathy goes out to — apparently, two people were killed.
And then we’re going to collectively determine our next step as we investigate and proceed. There was total unanimity among the folks at the table.
And we also discussed the latest series of Russian missile attacks, which are continuing the brutality and inhumanity that they’ve demonstrated throughout this war against Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructures. And they’ve been totally unconscionable, what they’re doing. Totally unconscionable.
And the moment when the world came together at the G20 to urge de-escalation, Russia continues to — has chosen to escalate in Ukraine, while we’re meeting. I mean, there were scores and scores of attack — missile attacks into western Ukraine.
We support Ukraine fully in this moment, and we have — we have since the start of this conflict. And we’re going to continue to do whatever it takes to give them the capacity to defend themselves.
Q Mr. President, is it too early to say whether this missile was fired from Russia?
THE PRESIDENT: There is preliminary information that contests that. I don’t want to say that until we completely investigate. But it is — I — it’s unlikely, in the minds of the trajectory, that it was fired from Russia. But we’ll see. We’ll see.
Q Mr. President, has Poland suggested invoking Article 4 or 5 from NATO, sir?
THE PRESIDENT: The consensus is we’re going to probably have a meeting of the — of the — of the ambassadors. So that’s — it looks like we’re going to go do next.
Thank you.
9:56 A.M. CIT
Quote from Peskov (Russia) on the missile in Przewodow, Poland
It's worth noting the restraint a much more professional reaction of the American side and American president.
Quotes from NATO (Stoltenberg) on the missile in Przewodow, Poland.
The main message is that Russia bears the ultimate responsibility, because this would not have happened hadn't Russia waged a brutal war of aggression against Ukraine.
We are constantly assessing what more we can do.
Other countries such as Lithuania have called for better NATO defences along the borders, which includes the skies. It has been evident that NATO has not done as much as they could have to help protect NATO territory.
Quotes from Zelenskyy on the missile in Przewodow, Poland.
If, God forbid, some debris killed these people, we have to apologise.
But, sorry first an investigation, and access to the data you have, we want to have this.
I have no doubt that it was not a missile or a missile strike. I want us to be fair and if it was the use of our air defence, then I want that evidence. (Based on evidence from his military commanders.)
Additional Banksy murals have been discovered around Kyiv
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The G20 summit ended with a statement condemning the Russian aggression and invasion of Ukraine. China and India, who have been tentatively supporting Russia did not object to the statement it is believed. It would not have been a good look after all the talks and negotiations for business.
The International Committee of the Red Cross will provide $2.7 million in aid to residents of liberated Kherson from the Reintegration Committee. Each resident in Kherson will receive Hr 1,200 ($33).
Day 267 (17 November)
The Black Sea Grain Initiative has been extended for another 120 days. That means Russia has no intention of ending this war this year. While the UN rejoices as they get their grain, they don’t seem to put as much effort into ending the war so that the grain deal isn’t necessary.
Guterres is a joke when he tries to defend his position by saying ‘discreet diplomacy’ works in creating solutions. Russia cooperates as it wants sanctions lifted so that it can sell its grain and fertiliser, and Turkey cooperate because they want to be seen as a powerful nation and to gain EU membership. Try telling those who died in Mariupol and Bucha that ‘discreet diplomacy’ works—oh, he can’t, because they were tortured and murdered while he negotiated and failed. In short, Ukraine had nothing to offer the UN as an incentive to act.
An unnamed diplomat from a NATO country told a reporter (FT):
This is getting ridiculous. The Ukrainians are destroying our confidence in them. Nobody is playing in Ukraine and they are openly lying. This is more destructive than the missile.
Obviously, this is unhelpful and indicates what we have suspected, that some countries feel obliged to assist because they have been told to, or look bad if they don’t rather than actually believing in the Ukrainian cause. Look at it another way, if you were falsely accused of something, wouldn't you defend yourself or at least ask for evidence of the accusation? How do they know that the Ukrainians are lying? On the contrary, I believe the vague NATO statement has been more harmful to the Ukrainians and the whole situation because it creates ambiguity when the investigation is still taking place.
Raw intelligence can be flawed until all the evidence has been examined, and that is what I believe NATO and Biden have faced the assertions on, and Poland has just agreed whatever they have said. In short, NATO has provoked the Ukrainians and tried to mitigate things by saying even if they are to blame, it’s not really their fault.
Missile strikes continue across Ukraine today, again. Again they are targeting energy grids and residential buildings but now there is snow in Kyiv as the temperatures start to dip below zero, which means that more people are going to suffer with a lack of heat and electricity. Strikes are reported in Odesa and Zaporizhzhia again. Soon there will be nothing left for strike, which is the aim of the Russians. The Russians, it seems waited to start the attacks just before winter for maximum distress and harm.
A military convoy arrived in Przewodów to continue with the investigation of the missile and explosion in the village.
In liberated Kherson, resident tell their tales of torture and being detained by the Russians. The media have been given access to 11 illegal prisons and several torture chambers (one called The Hole). Survivors have been telling their stories, where the Russians came to their homes and took them away. Some were killed, and their bodies found floating, while others were beaten so badly and electrocuted that they are scarred. Many say that they believe locals or people close t them had given up their identities to the Russians. Similar stories have been told in other regions that have been liberated. The invasion had been well-planned for a considerable time, with proxies in place and officials who were bribed.
Those who are missing are presumed dead and their bodies may never be recovered, or they have been transported to Russia or regions occupied by the Russians, and again, there will be no records. Anyone who had connections to the Ukrainian army or who openly supported the army and the government were detained, and tortured.
Lithuanians have named the marine drone they have purchased for Ukraine, and have called it PEACE. The drone was purchased for $250,000 through a crowdfunder and another fundraising initiative is under way to purchase another drone.
Israel has given permission to NATO members to supply Ukraine with weapons systems that include Israeli and components. The country has also agreed to purchase materials for the use of Ukrainian armed forces. This is taken several months as requests were made back in summer, and as a step forward in that Israel has chosen to support Ukraine rather than remain neutral
A team from Ukraine will participate in the investigation of the missile crash in Poland. This was announced last night.
The crash of Malaysian Airlines MH17 which killed 298 people in 2014 has been attributed to 3 men who had ties with the Russian military. It happened over Russian controlled Donbas, which means that war crimes carried out by Russians and their proxies in the Donbas could be tried by external courts. Two Russians and (Igor Firkin and Sergey Dubinsky) one Ukrainian who is a pro-Russian separatist (Leonid Kharchenko) were convicted, and one Russian (Oleg Pulatov) acquitted due to lack of evidence.
They were all sentenced to life imprisonment in absentia as they are all fugitives. That means no one knows where they are and they are not in prison. They have also been ordered to pay €16 million as compensation to the families of the victims.
Andrew Forrest, an Australian billionaire has launched an investment fund to help rebuild Ukraine, where he hopes it will be worth at least $25 billion. He has personally given $500 million to the fund, and the idea is to have plans to create green infrastructure for energy and telecoms.
Russia has rejected the UN resolution stating that it must pay the costs of the damage caused by the Russian army. Seeing the Russian money might be a long time coming, and in the meantime, Ukraine must be rebuilt, but where will this money come from? There are estimated costs of $750 billion, but each day more damage occurs.
The Ukrainian president (Zelenskyy) sees this as an opportunity to complete the replace old coal fired and nuclear power stations with brand-new green energy.
The capital would be available the instant that the Russian forces have been removed from the homeland of Ukraine. (Forrest)
We will take advantage of the fact that watch the Russians have destroyed can readily be replaced with the latest, most modern green and digital infrastructure. (Zelenskyy)
Zelesnkyy gave an interview at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore and said the following:
The most important thing is for an investigation to take place.
First of all everyone has to understand that there were about hundreds of missiles being launched that day, and I'm grateful for the world for the support of Ukraine with air defence and missiles, but you can see the consequences and aftermath of the Russian war.
This is not the first time of the whole missile of Russia the country sometime ago happened the pieces of the Russian missiles fell on the territory of Moldova, and it was aiming at Ukrainian territory.
I don't know what happened this time, we don't know hundred percent. I think the world also don't know what happened, but I'm sure this is a Russian missile, and I'm sure that we were launching the air defence missiles but we can't say specifically that this was the defence of Ukraine, although we are grateful we are not being blamed because we are fighting against Russia on our territory, we had to be fair and honest until the investigation is over we can't say what kind of missile or pieces of which missile fell on the Polish territory.
As I commented yesterday, the Polish President appears to be listening to requests from other NATO countries to cut Putin some slack. Or, as E-L has put it, "don't upset the Russians". But, the bottom line is, we should wait for a full investigation. God have mercy on the two Polish people who were killed and for all those who suffered death defending Ukraine from aggressor Putin.
Absolutely 100% agree!! To be honest, I feel like they've now under-mined Zellensky and thrown him under the bus. Someone in Ukraine should have a right to be part of that "investigation" if they're going to lay it at the feet of the Ukraine.