The Hungarian 'Neutrality' Problem
In the public eye, issues in the Ukrainian war seem to have 'shifted' but is it all smoke and mirrors?
NATO and the EU have made a point about each alliance being united, and bonded more tightly than ever before, something that Putin did not want. Having studied the EEC and EU for decades, those are words that the EU has always wished to promote, but as we know the UK never felt that bonded, hence we did leave the EU (not Europe) and that was from a public referendum. I see the alliances as arranged marriages that have a purpose, where each have their own benefits, and will keep up appearances when necessary.
Zelenskyy made a point about seeing which countries were the true friends of Ukraine, and he was looking at Hungary, where the Prime Minister Viktor Orban has offered humanitarian aid, and refugees to enter the country but no more. Hungary has opted for a ‘neutral’ stance, and does not wish to get involved in the war, and has refused to permit weapons or arms to be transported through the country, stating it would endanger Hungarians and would not be in the best interests of Hungary. Orban has been friends with Putin over the years, but as Hungary is a member of the EU and NATO, he can’t be seen to be choosing to side with Putin, hence a neutral approach often means you don’t wish to admit what side you have chosen for fear of reprisals.
Orban also faces elections next week, and must tell the voters what they wish to hear. I think it is easy to say the above when you have the protection of the EU and NATO behind you, but it shows that NATO and the EU are divided, for not all wish to do as either alliance states. Perhaps Orban is playing safe, should Putin invade other countries, Orban can hold his hands up and claim he did not help them, but only provided humanitarian aid?
Zelenskyy asked Orban to choose a side, and so far Hungary has not opposed the Ukrainian application for EU membership. It is a concern that Hungary wishes to sit on the fence, but should they be required to provide troops if NATO acts, then they are obliged to do so. Right now, they have the right to say ‘no’, but this means that NATO and the EU are not quite the cosy family that they would have us believe—I never believed it, and I am sure many others think the same. It is a relationship of convenience because it suits the parties concerned, and the US knows that small countries like Hungary and Bulgaria need them more, than the US ever needing help from anyone else.
Many would be surprised at Hungary choosing not to aid Ukraine as a border country, forcing the transit of weapons through Poland, and Slovenia instead, but it shows that each country puts itself first. Considering how close Hungary is to Russia, they don’t appear to be too concerned about Putin closing in, and by keeping their distance they are likely to be protecting themselves from any potential Russian invasions.
Day 30 (25 March)
As expected, NATO have declared they will support Ukraine but will not engage in war or provide a no-fly zone, but will increase funding for humanitarian aid and release funds for further equipment.
The Russians have declared that they are focusing on occupying the Donbas region. While some see that as a sign of Russian trying to save face, it can be used as a tactic to convince NATO and EU countries to stop helping Ukraine and leave them vulnerable. A strong Donbas region also means an open border between Ukraine and Russia and the opening of a corridor into Europe. It is hardly ideal.
Hungary has refused to allow weapons and arms to be transported through the country to aid Ukraine, but they cannot prevent NATO mounting a defence line along the border. Hungary has stated it does not wish to get involved with the Russia and Ukrainian conflict, and has rejected imposing further sanctions. Not such a united EU or NATO it seems. The country has had ties with Russia, having being invaded by them in 1956, where NATO was reluctant to get involved. The last of the Soviet troops left in 1991, which isn’t that long ago, therefore, one can see why Hungary are reluctant to get involved, but equally they should be aware of the consequences of failing to stop Putin.
Zelenskyy, in his address to the European Council stated that help came too late, although he is grateful for the assistance provided. Sanctions should have been imposed earlier, but even now are they really making a difference to the Kremlin?
Zelenskyy also highlighted the countries who have been reluctant to help—Ireland, Portugal, Germany and Hungary. This was not to sound ungrateful but to weed out those who may not truly support the need to protect Europe from Russia. EU membership was discussed again, and the urgent need to approve membership as soon as possible to help with the ceasefire negotiations.
Forced hostage videos have been shown, which validates the reports that Russians have detained people. It also appears that some were targeted and that they had a list, of ones to kill and ones to kidnap, or family members of the targets in order that they give themselves up. There have been too many reporters around for the Russians to hide all their activities, and with technology such as cameras and the internet, information is recorded and transmitted so quickly that they cannot control it, otherwise things could have bene far worse.
Australia has imposed sanctions against the Belarusian President, Alexander Lukashenko, due to his support of Russia in the conflict.
The EU has set up a Trust Fund of Solidarity, to help rebuild Ukraine.
Ukraine is re-occupying some towns outside of Kyiv, as reports claim the Russians are focusing on the Donbas region.
The US and EU have negotiated a gas deal (liquified natural gas) in order to replace the reliance on Russian energy supplies.
Mariupol has been destroyed, with very little of it left while people remain trapped. The Russians have refused to allow humanitarian aid in and have only allowed their own trucks in with provisions.
Talks continue between Russian and Ukraine where the use of Russian has been an issue. Russia wants Russian to be protected in Ukraine, where only a minority use Russian these days as many wish to move away from the Russian ties.
Spotify is suspending all services in Russia due to fears of fake news and disinformation being spread, and people who could get arrested under the new laws for opposing the military. They state it puts Spotify employees and listeners at risk.
Interpol have sent a team to Moldova due to human trafficking concerns as vulnerable refugees are being exploited, especially children and women.
The Russians continue bombing and reports state that there has been a Russian missile attack on a military command centre in the city of Vinnytsia (central).
It helps to remember Hungary suffered terribly at Soviet hands during and after WWII: they were invaded and horrific things happened to the general public, especially the vulnerable. They were occupied like the rest of the Warsaw Pact and lived under the same appalling totalitarianism all the others did. But we have to remember, they did rebel, and the Hungarian Revolution in 1956 was brutally suppressed, much like the one in Czechoslovakia in 1968. These people have seen this movie before, and the ending was unforgettable. If they have zero wish to engage with Russia, personified by the very worst of Soviet rule, the KGB, we shouldn't be surprised. This does not excuse its current position vis-à-vis helping its direct neighbour, but it does add perspective to their thinking.
As far as the EU is concerned, they can bark all they want but the fact remains, they have no military to speak of, so they are without any bite. It started as an economic union and a hope that nations in the European continent would finally stop all their internecine bickering and just get along once and for all! So far so good, but they have poured all their energy and economies to date into bolstering their own interests. Every so often someone muses that it might not be a bad idea to establish a pan-European Army to protect it, but that idea gets shouted down, or ignored, because of course, standing armies cost a lot of money, not to mention all the necessary acoutrements in terms of equipment, materiel, etc., and budgets seem to be in short supply when it comes down to the crunch. Look at the blow-up with Nato: turns out no one apart from faraway USA was actually carrying their own can; in fact for a long time, the US seemed to be carrying everyone else's cans too. A pan-European Army starts to look and sound pretty hollow when you look at the record so far. The US appears to be wobbling on the issue as well (great timing), so now what? Ukraine is the red-headed stepchild no one wants when things go south.
It's so hard to call this one. On the one hand, our hearts go out to the Ukrainian people: should they manage to get their country back, it resembles a gravel pit right now, and rebuilding it will be costly in every sense of the term. Nato et al. are unsurprisingly disinclined to get into a potentially disastrous conflict with a megalomaniac capable of anything. Are they right to take a back seat in this instance? Ukraine is very much a part of Europe, it isn't some faraway country hardly anyone has ever heard of. How can Europe stand by and watch it get pulverised? The thinking must be along the lines of: will any other neighbouring countries get hit next? It must be like watching a ripper running amok on a train: no one wants to confront the monster for fear of getting slashed, so they stand there helplessly and watch him slaughter other travellers.
From my early teens til well into my 20's friends and I would regularly meet up at someones house and play a board game called Risk, a kind of political power game, where you formed pacts and alliances, to achieve this well basicly you lied quite a lot of the time. You may wonder why I mention this now. Since the very start of this I have for the first time in nearly 50 years been reminded of that board game. I do not trust or believe Zelensky and with each day the passes that distrust grows. I will say this anyone who thinks that the former Eastern block countrys who all lived under the thumb of mother Russia are natural allies and have a great affection for one another are very wide of the mark each has their own agenda. Shared oppression does not mean unity and love between them.