With summer over, winter means that the optimum time for the Ukrainian counteroffensive is over, and they have around 5-6 weeks before the cold weather and darker nights hit Ukraine. This means that Russia will target energy infrastructure again, and conditions on the battlefields will be muddy, cold, and damp—not ideal for tanks.
Ukraine has gained some ground, but there is a long way to go and if this is a measure of how much land can be de-occupied in 7 months, then it will be decades before Ukraine can liberate Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk and the other temporarily occupied territories.
Ammunition and weapons are running out in Ukraine and stocks are being depleted in the warehouses of the allies, and while people in general support Ukraine, more people are concerned with the billions being donated to Ukraine when domestic issues are left on the sideline. The allies and NATO should take into account that they need public support and goodwill will be tested when domestic issues are sacrificed for Ukraine.
Reports Russia has recruited 570,000 additional conscripts that will be sent to the frontline next month. How can Ukraine match that when they have men trying to dodge conscription through being fake missionaries and forged documents claiming they are medically unfit?
Day 564 (10 Sept)
The G20 summit ended without a united declaration on Ukraine much to the delight of the Russians. Lavrov said he was prepared to defend the expected words and declared it was the right thing to do. India has now handed the reins over to Lula of Brazil who will host the next G20 summit. Lula has already stated that should Putin attend the G20 summit next year in 2024 in Brazil, he would not be detained or arrested as per the ICC arrest warrant. Later he stated this was a decision for the Brazilian judiciary when the meeting will be held in Rio de Janeiro in 2024.
Lavrov supported the Indian host in defying neo-colonisim, and there was no family photo, reportedly because many objected to the presence of Russia and did not wish to be photographed with them.
Ukraine had not been invited to the summit, and Putin and Xi Jinping were absent from the summit this year. Many believe it is because Putin feared being arrested (and had been sanctioned by many G20 members), and Xi Jinping did not want to be asked questions he didn’t want to answer on various issues including Russia and Ukraine.
Two volunteers from ‘Road to Relief’ were killed in Donetsk as their van came under fire from the Russians.
In Melitopol, reports claims that the cell towers are being monitored to spy on residents and to locate any ‘dissidents’.
Day 565 (11 Sept)
Senator Elizabeth Warren calls for an investigation into Elon Musk and SpaceX.
The US Congress should investigate whether we have adequate tools to make sure foreign policy has conducted by the government, and not by one billionaire.
The Council of Europe has adopted the Riga principles, which outlines how Russia should be held accountable for war damages and losses in Ukraine. This would mean registering the damages requiring evidence and locking claims for damage loss or injury caused bye, the Russians in Ukraine.
The Council of Europe also recognised that the regime in the Russian federation is a dictatorship. This means that it is reviewing how legitimate and valid the amendments to the Russian constitution, that permit Putin to hold the position as a president for indefinite period of time.
The Council of Europe also denounced, the sham referendums in elections, held in the temporary occupied regions of Ukraine. Not that this does much good, as all these politicians do is make speeches and express their disapproval, but actions save lives, and I doubt Russia cares what they think and whether they disapprove or not.
We strongly condemn the legitimate Sham elections that took place on 8th to 10th of September 2023, and the territories of Ukraine temporarily occupied by the Russian federation.
Ukraine has regained control of two Black Sea oiling gas (‘Boyko rigs’), drilling platforms that Russia has occupied since 2014, which has been primarily used for military purposes such as a landing pad for helicopters.
Satellite images indicate that Russia has been actively stocking the military bases near the finish border, and these include military vehicles and equipment. Whatever the reason, some may see this as Russia preparing for an attack even though Finland is now. NATO member, but Russia considers Finland as ‘Russian’.
After news that the Russian helicopter pilot who defected and landed his Mi-8 helicopter in Ukraine with a $500,000 reward, calls to the surrender hotline increased by 70%. The Synytsia operation had been successful and with more Russians looking to surrender it can only aid Ukraine.
Anna Baerbock, the German Foreign Minister made her fourth visit to Ukraine since the invasion began in February 2022.
Reports claim that at least 31,600 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine.
Day 566 (12 Sept)
Kim Jung Un has met with Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the far east of Russia. The meeting is to discuss the building of satellites, but many suspect that North Korea would supply weapons to Russia. The US states this violates the UN Charter, but as Russia has already violated it without any punishment, if the countries so assist each other, then there has to be evidence of this before any action is taken. Therefore, as it is likely any such deal would be secret and with no paper trail, it would be difficult to prove if this was the case.
Cargo plane manufacturer, Antonov has decided to make drones in response to the ongoing war. It will build a new drone centre and will help the supply of weapons in Ukraine so that the country is not limited in how they choose to use them while defending themselves from Russia.
The SBU detained a former clergyman who had assisted men in avoiding conscription by claiming they were missionaries.
The EU sanctions against 1,800 Russians has been renewed except for 4 businessmen where the sanctions will be lifted (Grigory Berezkin, Farkhad Akhmedov and Alexander Shulgin). This is bad news as it means sanctions aren’t working and there is pressure to have them lifted and entities like the UN and EU are caving in due to political pressure.
Putin attended the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok where he claims there are 570,00 additional Russian troops. Other reports claim that there are plans to mobilise 700,000 new conscripts.
South Korea has pledged $2.3 billion in aid to Ukraine. This will be for humanitarian aid, and also to help rebuild Ukraine through low cost loans rather than military aid.
The allies have been using decoy shipments to trick the Russians into using up their ammunition and weapons. The tactic appears to have worked with the Russian destroying hundreds of decoy units.
Russia has demanded another meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss the transfer of western weapons to Ukraine. Many states criticised Russia already, but it’s clear that Russia needs Ukraine to be weaponless in order to take control of the country.
Day 567 (13 Sept)
Elon Musk has changed his story on why the Starlinks weren’t activated over Crimea when it had been requested by Ukraine. According to the latest version of his tale, he claims that he didn’t so so because of US sanctions on Russia. Crimea isn’t Russia, but is occupied by Russia. He claims he could not switch them on near the area without permission from the US President.
That excuse falls neatly into a Congressional hearing as Senator Elizabeth Warren is calling for a hearing on how an individual can make foreign policy decisions without consulting the government.
Romania has discovered more Russian drone fragments near Nufarul and Victoria in the Tulcea county. A helicopter was sent to retrieve them as Romania demands that Russia stops attacking Romanian territory. The head of the Russian mission in Romania has been summoned to answer and to account for how Russian drone fragments have been found on Romanian territory.
Kim Jung Un has stated that he approves of the Russian war and believes Russia will defeat Ukraine. The world should be concerned that 2 sanctioned countries headed by dictators are meeting when one has invaded a country.
Putin has said that military cooperation between the two countries is a possibility
Explosions in Sevastopol in Crimea have injured more than 20 people. This was a marine base for the Russians and appears to have been a legitimate military target.
Finland will not take part in the World Team Gymnastics because Russia and Belarus have been allowed to participate.
Typical of Putin to consider NATO member Finland as "Russian".