The war in Ukraine is approaching 700 days, and experts along with both sides expect this war to continue into at least 2025. That means both sides are preparing to stockpile and manufacture weapons and ammunition, and then must find willing soldiers to fight. The international community and alliances are also planning to find and release funds for humanitarian aid, and the Ukrainian allies are planning their defence budgets to assist Ukraine.
During the week, there has been little change—Ukraine still hasn’t managed to pass an effective mobilisation bill nearly 2 years into the war. The bill went to Parliament and behind closed doors was returned to the cabinet to be amended, and was then resubmitted a coupled of days later. The fact is that more than 500,000 potential soldiers have already left Ukraine because they didn’t want to fight (perhaps they feared death or knew Ukraine would be defeated due to a lack of weapons and corruption in the government) and those are the figures we know about as recorded. What about the draft dodgers who paid for fake documents, or those who have silently slipped out of the country? How will Ukraine replace the soldiers who have been fighting for 2 years without a break? They can have all the weapons, whether they are donated or manufactured in Ukraine, but who will use them? In previous world wars the allied troops worked together, but due to NATO regulations that doesn’t seem feasible unless NATO as a whole gets involved.
Ukraine has always had the support of the Baltic states, mainly because they know what it is like to be under Russian rule and how genuine the threat is. Zelenskyy took a mini tour to gain support around the region, and it was naturally successful but the US has admitted it has run out of funds now to supply Ukraine will any further aid. That is precisely what Russia wants to hear, and even with the UK promising security guarantees this week and additional funding, it is nothing compared to the $110 billion that Russia has earmarked for their defence spending.
Each day, the Russians continue their attacks on the port regions, and the areas they seek to occupy, destroying the buildings until there is nothing left and where no one can live. That is their aim, and if North Korea and China are assisting Russia with the supply of weapons or components for weapons, then this war will continue destroying Ukraine. Ukraine says they need better air defence systems, and do not have the ability to manufacture them, and have been reliant on what the allied countries have supplied—but is it enough to defeat the Russians? What about the land attacks, as air defence systems won’t stop that or a corrupt official handing over a city or town to the Russians?
It looks like 2024 will be a year of preparation for all parties as it is clear that Russia is in this for the long haul to get what they want, and any talks of peace must be viewed as a stalling tactic. This does mean that both the Russia and Ukrainian people will suffer, but eyes are on the war in the Middle East too as countries need to divert funding there and to try to avoid escalation in that region too.
We are on the brink of a world war, yet too many politicians are thinking about their careers to do the right thing. Countries have picked a side whether they have declared it or not, and it is dependent on the ruling government at the time. We have seen Argentina moving to support Ukraine after a change in leader, and Slovakia after a new leader has chosen to take a more neutral stance towards supporting Ukraine even though they are members of NATO and the EU.
Countries are preparing themselves for war with Sweden and the Netherlands reinforcing their armies, and the border countries with Russia (bar Belarus) closing most of the border checkpoints. With Taiwan backing Ukraine, unlike China and having elected Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), as the new President, politics in Asia will have an effect on how China chooses to respond to international acts including sanctions. China has stated it intends to absorb Taiwan into China one day, which is not dissimilar to Russia wishing to absorb the former Soviet states back to reform the USSR.
Day 685 ( 9 Jan)
Petri Sarvamaa, an MEP from Finland launched a petition to deprive Orban of Hungary of his vote as it is clear to all that he is holding up funding for Ukraine. It’s about time the EU did something other than try to bribe and appease Orban, because that looks as if the EU can be blackmailed and that Orban’s excuses have validity. By 12 January, he had collected 120 signatures and the next stage of the process will continue next week.
Sweden has yet to join NATO, their membership being held up by Turkey and Hungary who are effectively blackmailing NATO into getting more weapons and equipment. They have stated they will provide troops in Latvia to support the Canadian NATO troops until 2025 and is a sign that they are willing to contribute troops to aid NATO resources.
In Odesa, a draft evasion scheme was uncovered with a judge accused of taking bribes from men who wanted to dodge the draft. It seems that these schemes have been rife, hence why mobilisation failed and why we saw so many men carrying on as normal in Ukraine rather than putting on a uniform and fighting to defend the country.
Day 686 (10 Jan)
Zelenskyy begins his Baltic tour, arriving in Lithuania before going to Estonia and Latvia. Talks will include ongoing co-operation, military aid packages, and security guarantee discussions as well as NATO and EU membership. These are safe visits for Zelenskyy as the Baltic states have been and will always support Ukraine as former Soviet states.
Lithuania has signed an agreement for joint production of defence projects including the manufacture of drones, and de-mining equipment and has pledged a further €200 million in military aid. The two leaders(Nauseda and Zelenskyy) also began talks on bilateral security guarantees as per the G7 declaration of security assurances.
Pepsi and Subway have been designated international sponsors of war for continuing to trade in Russia. Pepsi in particular have barred Ukrainian PR from mentioning the war. Subway have kept their 500 branches open in Russia, and both are supporting the Russian economy.
The EU has reached a partial mandate of the Ukraine Facility, a new tool that Ukraine has proposed to support the recovery of Kyiv with long term funding. The funding of €50 billion has not been approved and Hungary is expected to veto the plan. One way is for the funding to be reviewed each year, but that might open up the EU to being blackmailed each year by Hungary or other states that might silently support Russia.
Another silent Russian supporter, the new leader of Slovakia, Fico, has said that Russia needs security guarantees as well. The thing is, no one is attacking Russia but have to defend themselves from Russia. Ukraine is not attacking Russia, but is defending itself by taking out their weapons and military supplies as a preventative measure and an accepted military manoeuvre.
Zelenskyy is to visit Davos in Switzerland next week to attend the World Economic Forum (15-19 January 2024).
Day 687 (11 Jan)
Swedish defence officials have warned that war with Russia is a possibility and that plans should be made now. This has sparked calls of alarmism, but as Sweden is not yet a part of NATO, it is still vulnerable to Russia attack even with bilateral security agreements with other countries. While the Germans say that an attack is possible in 6 years, Sweden estimates a time frame of 3 years.
The Ukrainian government has withdrawn its controversial mobilisation bill behind closed doors, and the bill has been returned with a view for it to be resubmitted. This is a huge issue for Ukraine as they do not have sufficient trained soldiers and this mobilisation is 2 years in where men who fled Ukraine aren’t going to come back under threat of never being able to return to Ukraine again. Most will happily settle in another country with their families instead just as many Russians have done who have fled to avoid being drafted.
Estonia has agreed on 0.25% of its defence budget to be given to Ukraine in their continued support until 2027, after Zelenskyy visited Tallinn. In the press conference, the president Alar Karim also said that Ukraine should be able to use western supplied weapons beyond that of Russian occupied land in Ukraine, advocating the use on Russian military targets in Russia.
The UN estimates that it needs $3.1 billion in humanitarian aid for Ukraine and is seeking funds from donors in Geneva on 15 January at a meeting.
Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria have signed a memorandum of understanding to cooperate in the Black Sea mine clearance in order to ensure safe passage of the green shipments from Ukraine (Mine Countermeasures Task Group). This was signed in Istanbul, and hopefully Turkey will adhere to the agreement rather than block vessels that were trying to de-mine the Black Sea.
Kyiv has preliminary evidence that missiles from North Korea were used in Ukraine. Obviously it would not be a surprise if North Korea had supplied weapons to Russia as the world expected this already.
After his visit to Lithuania, Zelenskyy has announced that Ukraine will collaborate with for the leading Lithuania in arms manufacturers.
This will include NT service, Brolis semiconductors, RSI Europe and DMEXS that specialises in thermal imagery and optics.
Day 688 (12 Jan)
Ihor Hrynkevych, a businessman from Lviv has been accused of bribery and corruption. His company had a defence Ministry contract to fulfil clothing during the war, but it appears there has been $1.2 billion of fraud, and an attempt to give $500,000 as a bribe to stop the investigation of the corruption.
The Latvian president, Edgars Rinkēvičs has stated that the rhetoric needs to change from supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes to. We will support Ukraine until its four victory over Russian imperialism.
We have often said that we will support Ukraine for as long as needed, but the main political signal must be that we will support Ukraine until it's full victory over Russian imperialism.
Ukraine and the UK have signed a bilateral security agreement based on the G7 Vilnius Declaration which includes financial support and to offer support if Russia attacks the UK. The UK is the first country to have signed such an agreement which are designed to deter further Russian attacks and to serve as a a security guarantee until Ukraine becomes a member of NATO
5. ThroughthisAgreement:
• the Participants will work together on ensuring a sustainable force capable of defending Ukraine now and deterring Russian aggression in the future, through the continued provision of security assistance and modern military equipment, across the land, air and sea, space and cyber domains – prioritising air defence, artillery and long-range firepower, armoured vehicles, and other key capabilities as required, such as combat air, and by promoting increased interoperability with Euro-Atlantic partners;
• the UK will provide long-term advice and support for defence governance and
policies in order to strengthen Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence;
• the UK will, alongside other international partners, help Ukraine to enhance its deterrence to external aggressors by developing modern Armed Forces that are increasingly interoperable with NATO and contribute to the NATO force pool.
This includes development of a modern defence sector in Ukraine, and a pathway to a future in NATO through:
o support to capabilities and training, as well as the infrastructure needed for Ukraine to exercise domestic control of their own airspace;
o support to Ukraine’s development of a Navy and the Sea Guard of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine that can execute mine clearance, and conduct maritime ISR, patrols, coastal defence and freedom of navigation, helping Ukraine to rebuild their economy;
o support to the development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine including (but not limited to): future force design, a move towards NATO concepts and operating procedures, command and staff training, combined exercises, and enhanced compatibility and interoperability with NATO Allies;
o support for border protection and defence, its engineering and
fortification, surveillance, monitoring of enemy troop movements, post- war reconstruction of border infrastructure, demining, and disposal of explosive ordnance; and
o support to medical training and prosthetics.
• the UK will support plans and governance structures for Capability Coalitions, both to deliver the future force, and also to bring more coherence to the provision of capability in the current war. The UK is working with the US to develop the governance framework for the Capability Coalitions. All the Capability Coalitions will improve the interoperability of Ukrainian and NATO forces.
• the UK will make significant contributions to the Capability Coalitions including Maritime Security, Air, Air Defence, Artillery and Armour, as well as providing other weapons systems and ammunition agreed by the Participants.
Part VIII. Cooperation in the event of future armed attack
Any future Russian invasion would violate the UN Charter and fundamental principles of international law, and would grievously undermine Euro-Atlantic security, including that of the UK.
In the event of future Russian armed attack against Ukraine, at the request of either of the Participants, the Participants will consult within 24 hours to determine measures needed to counter or deter the aggression.
The UK undertakes that in those circumstances, and acting in accordance with its legal and constitutional requirements, it would: provide Ukraine with swift and sustained security assistance, modern military equipment across all domains as necessary, and economic assistance; impose economic and other costs on Russia; and consult with Ukraine on its needs as it exercises its right to self-defence enshrined in Article 51 of the UN Charter.
In order to ensure the widest and most effective collective response to any future armed attack, the UK and Ukraine may amend these provisions in order to align with any mechanism that Ukraine may subsequently agree with its other international partners, including the participants in the Joint Declaration of 12 July 2023.
Day 689 (13 Jan)
Russia is using ports in occupied Crimea to export stolen sunflower seeds to Turkey. Turkey doesn’t seem to be doing much to stop this looting.
Russia announces $110 billion budget to be spent on the military in 2024.
Reports claim that Russia is producing 2 million rounds of 122mm and 152mm ammunition a year, and is backed by North Korea, Belarus and Iran. Ukraine has a shortage of ammunition and we know that the EU is planning on producing more but are bickering over which countries should receive the contracts as it is a profitable business.
Denmark has announced it will provide $22 million for the reconstruction of Mykolaiv.
More missile attacks today in Kherson, Odesa, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Kyiv.
Russia is seeking to pass a law to allow foreigners with criminal records to be drafted into the Russian military. This is obviously to bulk up numbers for cannon fodder.
Ukraine has requested that the Australian government to supply them with 45 retired Taipan helicopters, rather than to retire them and dismantle them. This gives you an indication of how short the Ukrainian army is of equipment, and so Ukraine needs more equipment to stand a chance of defeating Russia.
Day 690 (14 Jan)
The European commission has approved €126 million to fund the Romanian Daniel ports that have been affected by the war. This will come in the form of grants up to €10 million for companies that will be willing to invest in increasing their storage capacity in the port region.
The 4th Ukrainian Peace Formula meeting will take place in Davos, Switzerland where, at least 80 delegations will participate.