The EU Approves €50 Billion Aid To Ukraine
Orban backed down to support the bill to prevent suspension of funding to Hungary
Most of the talks this week have been about supplying Ukraine with further aid, the fact that the US still hasn’t passed a bill granting further aid to Ukraine, and the countries that have supported Russia on the quiet are being revealed and the true extent of their support.
Putin declares that occupied regions in Ukraine will be assimilated fully by 2030 into Russia. That gives you a good indication that Russia has no intention of ever leaving these occupied areas unless they are defeated.
How important is US aid and the US election for this war? Even the EU says that without US aid, their support alone will not be enough for Ukraine to defeat Russia. Figures indicate that only 7% of eligible men in Ukraine are fighting, and corruption has much to do with the fact that Ukraine lacks trained soldiers and adequately trained reserves.
Day 705 (29 Jan)
The Ukrainan Minister for Foreign Affairs (Kuleba) and Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine met with Hungary’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Péter Szijjártó at a border city Uzhhorod to discuss Ukrainian and Hungarian relations, mainly to protect the rights of Hungarians in Ukraine. The meeting was also to set the scene for a meeting with Orban and Zelenskyy.
In a speech, Zelenskyy has stated that funding for Ukrainian refugees should be sent to Ukraine so that they can administer the funding rather than the host country giving them funding. Given the level of corruption in Ukraine that has to pass through the chains, what guarantees could he provide that the funding would reach those people in need? Ukraine can’t keep track of all the refugees especially those who escaped mobilisation and they probably don’t want the government to decide on their funding, and some are probably not registered for fear of being sent back to Ukraine.
He also says that those who fled Ukraine should pay taxes as the money pays for the army, and mentioned those who fled Ukraine illegally to avoid mobilisation should return, but did not call on those countries to expel them. In a nutshell, they left illegally because they didn’t want to fight, and they also knew Ukraine had limited defences and inadequate weapons and stood little chance of survival. That doesn’t make it right, but I can’t see men flocking back to fight for Ukraine, and they haven’t either.
Another EU bill is trying to get passed, and it is a 4 year €20 billion defence fund for Ukraine. Germany and France have stalled, probably as they are concerned about the defence contracts and which country would have them.
Belgium and Ukraine sign a bilateral agreement to strengthen relations and to produce arms together.
Belarus is to create a joint state media outlet with Russia which will coordinate the news on television channels and preexisting newspapers to create a unified policy or propaganda message to the people.
Day 706 (30 Jan)
An International Working Group on Security and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine has been launched, headed by former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen (2009-2014). The group includes 16 other former and current high ranking officials with experience to assist Ukraine, including Boris Johnson (former UK PM), Sanna Marin (former Finnish PM), Hillary Clinton (former US Secretary of State) and former president of Poland , Aleksander Kwasniewski. I think this is an excellent idea, as many have had previous dealings with Ukraine and have knowledge of the obstacles that they have and need to counter.
Corruption in Moldova, where companies supplied Russia with aircraft components after sanctions were imposed, worth around $15 million.
Germany, Poland and the Netherlands have approved a deal to help speed up military deployments across the borders on the eastern flank. This is one of the main corridors from the North Sea and will assist with troops and weapons being able to move more freely and quickly. On the face of it, this looks like preparation for war and troops will practise their movements in the military exercises that are being carried out now.
Belarus has amended its legislation to permit the use of nuclear weapons.
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are to build a Baltic defence zone on the borders with Russia and Belarus, as security concerns increase in the eastern flank.
Day 707 (31 Jan)
A prisoner exchange of 207 Ukrainians, many from the Mariupol siege took place. It had originally been planned for 24 January, but the downing of the IL-76 plane had led to the exchange being postponed.
An open letter to EU members signed by Germany, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Estonia and the Netherlands has called for other members of the EU to increase military aid and assistance to Ukraine. This comes as the US aid has come to a halt due to political divisions in Congress, and that continued support is not enough and that it needs to be increased.
Moscow moved 100,000 people to Melitopol, mainly migrant workers to populate the occupied area. This is what happened in Crimea, and other annexed regions to prevent Ukraine from liberating the region and the rightful owners of the property from returning.
Air China cargo made military supply flights to Belarus this month to evade customs and checks. It is highly probable that the Chinese equipment was destined for the Russian army.
Reports claim that 3 Russian cargo ships were loaded and left North Korea to eastern Russia during the period between September to December 2023. It’s quite evident that China and North Korea are supporting Russia.
Russia adopted a bill allowing the government to confiscate property of people who criticised the Kremlin or how discredited the Russian army. This also applies to those who fled the country and who are renting out properties and who benefit from rental income. This is very old fashioned communism which makes investing in Russia always a risky business.
In the US, the Excess Defence Article (EDA) permits the president to transfer surplus weapons systems to partners at a low cost or no cost. Arms are being sent to Greece so that they can be transferred to Ukraine. These include 2 C-13OH aircraft, 60 Bradley armoured vehicles, and 10 engines for patrol planes.
Day 708 (1 Feb)
China has demanded that Ukraine remove 14 companies (such as Sinopec) that have been blacklisted as sponsors of war, as they support and do business with Russia. China says thesis damaging to relations between the countries, yet it is a well-known fact that China has been supplying goods to Russia via third party countries for the past 2 years, and it is China who is damaging relations between the countries.
Russian spies seem to be everywhere, the latest alleged spy is an MEP, Tatjana Ždanoka from Latvia who has links to the Russian FSB. Leaked emails from 2004-2017 indicate that she had been a Russian agent. While she has denied the allegations, other MEPs have concerns that there are more Russian agents acting as MEPs, especially since at least 13 had voted against a resolution condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The EU confirmed the €50 billion multi-year aid package to Ukraine after Orban conceded on some points. Instead of a yearly review, it would be reviewed every 2 years, and each year there would be a review on how to implement the funding. Hungary was on the brink of having its voting rights suspended if there was further intentional blocking.
Vsevolod Kniaziev, the former head of the Ukrainian Supreme Court who was detained on bribery charges has been released, and although he was dismissed is still able to work as an ordinary judge. Hardly a good look for the Ukrainian corruption team where he can go back to work as a judge. Smells like a deal has been done.
Russia closes a border with Estonia between Ivangorod and Narva to vehicles claiming construction work.
Day 709 (2 Feb)
The Canadian Foreign Minister, Melanie Joly visited Kyiv to discuss bilateral ties, military aid, and the use of frozen Russian assets.
The ICJ has ruled that it will hear part of a lawsuit that Ukraine has filed against Russia over false allegations of genocide that have been used as justification for the special military operation and invasion. The court did not approve Ukraine’s request for compensation, but did find that Russians discriminated in Ukraine and violated 2 UN treaties (Russian funding terrorists in Ukraine, and failing to allow Ukrainian to be taught in Crimean schools after the 2014 annexation).
Latvia bans the national teams from participating in sports that permit Russia or Belarus to compete. This is to reaffirm support for Ukraine and to prevent Russia to use the sporting platform for propaganda and to try and legitimise their war crimes.
Russia criticises Ecuador for sending Russian military equipment to the US, destined for Ukraine, citing it was a breach of contract between the 2 countries. Ecuador is sending old hardware to the US in exchange for advanced equipment.
Day 710 (3 Feb)
Putin states that the occupied areas of Ukraine will be integrated into Russian lands within the next 6 years and by 2030. Already, some Russians have been moved to areas such as Mariupol and Melitopol to prevent Ukrainians moving into vacant properties as they did in Crimea.
Overnight, the Lukoil oil refinery in Volgograd (Russia) was hit by a Ukrainian drone as Ukraine continues to take defensive measures.
Canada is considering transferring decommissioned missiles in storage to Ukraine rather than destroying them. from this, we can see that Ukraine lacks modern weapons to defend itself if it is reliant on old decommissioned weapons, and this is no match for Russia who are being supplied by Iran and North Korea.
Some Turkish banks are closing the accounts that belong to Russian businesses over fears of sanctions from the US in particular.