The Dangers Of The Franco-German Alliance In Europe
With the Ukraine Lend-Lease Act signed, will Russia consider this a 'threat' that justifies escalation?
There have been so many meetings and discussions among the world leaders in the past 48 hours, people seem to forget the important issue that this was an unprovoked war in Ukraine, where innocent people are dying. They also forget that we have been here before where there were numerous talks and meetings prior to the Second World War, and it didn’t stop the war but enabled secret pacts that led to more suffering.
Putin’s message yesterday was that he will not stop fighting until he gets some kind of victory he can sell to the Russians to justify his actions. He also claimed that the army for fighting for the Motherland (believing as some do that Ukraine was always part of the Russian Federation and that the dissolving of the USSR never really took place). There was a twist in historical facts, where he claimed that like the Soviets defeated the Germans in 1945, that Russia was again fighting Nazis.
The Second World War was dominated in the region by two dictators, Hitler (Germany) and Stalin (USSR) where both could not be trusted as they discussed how they would divide Eastern Europe between them in a secret pact. They had signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (23 August 1939 by the respective Foreign Ministers), where if Germany invaded Poland, Germany would split Poland with the Russians. That happened in 1939, where the Polish thought the Soviets came to help them, and then annexed them. The USSR was also given first dibs to invade Finland (Estonia and Latvia), and they did and annexed 11% of the territory (Karelia) during the Winter War on 12 March 1940.
How does this relate to contemporary events? Talks with France and Britain had broken down in 1939, and the Soviets were keen to take control but France and Britain would not agree to the Soviet demands. Stalin then turned to Hitler, and the legacy of those decisions remain today.
You can see that the Franco-Germanic talks are of concern when a leader with power issues (Macron) goes off on a tangent and makes deals to protect themselves. After the revelation of the pact in August 1939, the horrified British and French requested meetings with the Soviets and that was denied, so when we see two countries agreeing to something that others do not, it is of great concern. This is when the EU should step in and remind them of the united goal of protecting democracy.
I am not alone with my concerns over the French and German goals in this conflict. Both countries have been slow to provide any effective support except words, and have only done so through international pressure. Macron may feel that because he was elected for a second term that he is invincible, but he was up against Le Pen, who fared far better than she has done because people were voting ‘anyone but Macron’, therefore, he was bound to win if that was his only real opponent. Both countries silently seek appeasement and wish to force Ukraine to concede territory in order to stop the war, and prevent a world war where they will have to be involved and fork out funds to pay for the military. It also means they will have to agree with NATO decisions which is dominated by the US. Both countries have a history of being difficult in international relations. Neither wish to accept that you cannot negotiate with Putin because he isn’t interested in a resolution, only a victory at the cost of innocent human lives.
It later transpired that Hitler and Stalin had made the following deal in 1939, to control Eastern Europe and ‘promised’ neutrality if either went to war with a third party, as in they would not aid either side (like China is doing right now) to avoid other countries attacking them:
USSR was to take Finland, Estonia, Bessarabia (now Moldova), and Latvia. It seems that although this pact is now void, in Putin’s mind he still believes these territories belong to the old USSR that he is trying to reinstate.
Poland would be divided between the two countries with Germany taking the west.
Germany would take Lithuania, but later an additional modified clause gave the Soviets control of the state in exchange for a larger part of Poland. Romania was also assigned to Germany.
The pact came to an end when Hitler enacted Operation Barbarossa on 22 June 1941, when Germany invaded USSR territory (although Operation Otto in July 1940 was the initial plan to invade the USSR) which Stalin dismissed as disinformation when he was told of the plan. Stalin did not expect Hitler to attack after their somewhat dodgy pacts in the past, and that is when the USSR effectively became an ally of the UK and later the US. This has led to Russia wishing to retain client states as a protective and defensive measure, and has shaped how Europe is at present.
Hitler claimed that he needed to invade the USSR in order to populate the land with Germans for the expansion of the German race, and he justified the invasion in order to remove the Bolsheviks, just as Putin is claiming he has invaded Ukraine to remove the Nazis! As we can see from the past, talks and agreements mean little when you are dealing with dictators who seek power at the cost of human lives.
It is indeed frustrating to see that Europe is slowly being divided into factions now that the threat of war is on their doorstep. Macron and those who support his idealist view that diplomatic talks will resolve the conflict do not want war for selfish reasons, but sacrifices must be made to protect democracy. I don’t want war—in fact I don’t wish to write about it except in a historical context rather than in real-time, but find the need to do so in order that in generations to come, people will see that we did not agree with appeasement and wished to support Ukraine in their fight for democracy and independence and not by conceding territory. In the past, countries have had to concede due to lack of arms and troops—Ukraine has the bulk of the democratic world behind them, and that is a game changer, one that Russia sees as interference.
What we have is the former Soviet states and those in the Baltic region supporting Ukraine and are leading the way (with UK and the US), while other countries are doing the talk and offering some aid, but aren’t committed to it hoping that Ukraine will concede and that they can feel that they did enough and not be publicly criticized.
As above, I agree that Turkey, and Israel are red herrings offering their mediation services, and Germany and France are being passive. Germany has been shamed into action, while France keeps calling Putin to look as if they can broker the peace deals, but aren’t actually aiding Ukraine in ways that they need.
Austria and Switzerland are neutral so their hands are tied, but I would move Australia and Slovakia up to a B as they have led the way in offering heavy weaponry when others had not. I may seem hard on Macron and France, but in the last 10-11 weeks of this conflict, all he has given Ukraine is a series of phone calls to Putin and some basic humanitarian aid and pledges of weapons. Zelenskyy may see him as a ‘friend’, but Macron is a smooth talker, but should Zelenskyy trust a man who wants him to concede, and who is enlisting the support of Germany in that goal too? That is contrary to what Zelesnkyy has stated in the past.
The point of an alliance is to speak as one with shared goals and visions and not to go off and suggest the formation of other alliances because you don’t want a country to join your elite club. Macron, Scholz, and Orban are all out of synch in the fractured EU structure, one that I found unsatisfactory for this very reason when too much power was handed over to those in the EU. Now that war is a possibility, the balance of power is going to be tested as each country will put their own objectives first. Hungary (Orban) stands more to lose as the country gains more than it contributes and we know that he is pro-Putin, and it may come to a point where the EU/NATO must consider expulsion if evidence surfaces that indicates they have betrayed/violated the agreements of the alliances. As for France and Germany, there have always been power struggles and if France and Germany gang up on the rest of the EU, then that is indeed a most dangerous situation, especially as they seem to favour appeasement through a concession of Ukrainian territory to the Russians, and where they wish to reestablish Russian relations for their own economical benefits.
Day 76 (10 May)
Biden signed the Ukraine Lend-Lease Act yesterday, which will allow aid to reach Ukraine more effectively. The Russians appear to see this as a threat against them, and that the US is waging war against Russia, and that is the propaganda they have spun to the Russians. Will Putin try and twist this to justify escalation and to attack the US? He doesn’t need mush to twist things to suit his agenda.
Russians are helping trapped Ukrainians escape Russia through an underground system, similar to how black people escaped slave states in the US.
The Azovstal steelwork evacuation may have ended for now, but there are claims that there are still civilians inside as Russia attacks the area.
The UN Human Rights Council will meet tomorrow to discuss Russian humanitarian violations. It seems all that they will do is set up a Commission of Inquiry and report their findings. How does this stop the atrocities? It is supposed to deter countries from carrying out such crimes but it clearly doesn’t when they know all it will do is lead to a report.
North Korea publicly supports Russia and its aims. That comes as no surprise where North Korea blames the West and the US for the conflict in Ukraine due to their ‘hegemonic policy’.
There have been visits to Ukraine from the Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra and the German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. These appear to show solidarity rather to serve as any practical use, where everyone seems to be visiting Ukraine to see the atrocities with their own eyes.
The Lithuanian Seimas recognises Russia as a terrorist state.
Macron ropes Germany into his idea of creating an outer European political community which the UK and Ukraine could join. Did Macron fail to understand that is why the UK left the EU due to the political interference and turbulence? Why would the UK want to join when they had been fighting to leave for decades?
EL - I remain grateful to you for the refresher course on long ago pacts/deals/agreements. Good to see the Lithuanian government recognizes what we all know Russia is under Putin, a terrorist state. Amid all the "talking", the fact is Putin's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine with the vastly mounting number of dead, plus destruction, is a war.
Thanks for the very important historical parallels, EL, which are too easily forgotten (if they were ever taught in recent generations, about which my heart misgives me). I noted this morning, watching the State Opening of Parliament, that the Queen's Speech included reference to continuing to support Ukraine. As for Macron - De Gaulle always imagined the EU as a split closet monarchy, with Germany the economic engine and France the policy/marquee leadership engine.
That is one reason he opposed Britain's entrance. In the event, Germany became the de facto economic and leadership power under Merkel. That position is now weakening post-Merkel, and Macron is keen to re-establish France as the First Amongst Equals power in the bloc. He is not to be trusted. TC