The Consequences Of A Rushed Peace Deal

After a month of defending itself, Ukraine faces the second wave of the invasion

We approach a crucial period in this conflict where Russian troops rotate and replenish their supplies, while Ukraine has put up a better fight than expected but who don’t have troops to rotate or have additional supplies. Ukraine are depending on the West to help them—it’s like watching an old war movie when the soldiers hold off the enemy with their last rounds as they wait for reinforcements and a chopper to breeze in to rescue them. The problem is, will the West stick to their guns and stand back and watch Ukraine fall, while declaring that they ‘Stand with Ukraine’? The second wave will be make or break, and the West will either have blood their hands, or have enabled Putin to expand the Russian Federation.

The West seems to be more concerned with all the diplomatic paperwork of the war, by gathering evidence of war crimes (instead of stopping them), and thinking about who is going to fund the cost of rebuilding Ukraine (while it is still under attack), and focusing on the humanitarian crisis instead of finding ways to prevent it in the first place. Sir Howard Morrison has been appointed as an independent advisor to Ukraine, to assist with the matters relating to war crimes. In a way it is as if the UK wants to look as if they are doing all they can, by helping with the process of convicting war criminals. The problem is that often you need to find them and arrest them before that can happen.

They seem keen to focus on the ICC and the UN— all paper pushers that look as if they are addressing the issues. None of that helps the troops on the ground trying to defend their democracy, because they are more concerned about the aftermath. The UN stood for great things once upon a time, but then there were too many paths which just went around in circles rather than achieving anything.

The ICC can issue warrants for arrests but must rely on other countries to carry out the arrest, and then transfer them to the ICC. It is worth reading about how the ICC ‘works’ to understand that this action, while necessary may not lead to the justice that people assume the courts will carry out. Putin and his minions will be heavily guarded at all times, therefore, an arrest would not be easy and would likely entail a great deal of bloodshed in itself. Many dictators have never been arrested or stood trial because no one can get to them. Often arrests are planned months in advance, and are due to informants passing on details to assist authorities.

https://how-the-icc-works.aba-icc.org

UN resolutions are not binding, and aren’t enforceable either. All that the countries who abstain or who vote against a motion get is a look of disapproval. They also know that no one can ‘touch’ them for their votes. What good is that except to be on record?

Is Zelenskyy being backing into a corner by the West into agreeing to a peace deal because the West won’t protect the skies or help provide the country with weapons? That is what looks like, because he believed that the West would help if they saw the tragic scenes and him pleading for aid, but they applauded him and sent some food and bandages, while some sent some weapons which was better than nothing. NATO woke up after a few weeks and sent some troops down to defend the borders, but by then the aggressors had already made their mark and killed innocent civilians.

Some of you may think that the neutrality option is okay, and if a third party guarantees it, then that is a security measure? I’m afraid you only have to look back in history to see that such third party guarantees usually fail because they consist of sanctions, and suspensions in organizations such as the UN. Yes, those things have already been used up, so what is left? Further sanctions and restrictions on the country until they adhere to the agreement? We’re already there and those in the Kremlin don’t care because they had planned to work around sanctions already.

A neutrality agreement may state that Ukraine can never join a military alliance, but what if they form an alliance that is not essentially military? *Another condition is that they cannot participate in war or allow foreign military bases in the country, but a ‘special military operation’ is not a war. If Russia takes that line and Ukraine adopts a neutral status, then Putin can pursue as many ‘special military operations’ as he wishes and no one can help Ukraine at all. This is far from ideal and is unwise with an operator such as Putin who makes up the rules as he goes along to suit his agenda. What it would do is leave Ukraine defenceless, and no country could offer them aid due to the declaration of neutrality.

*Please note these are my own opinions based on how the Kremlin chooses to view events and how they classify issues.

Zelenskyy wants the West to commit themselves to supporting Ukraine, but who or what body can enforce that? We have seen a divided NATO and EU already, so what guarantees will Ukraine have, given that it has been a struggle to get military aid as it is? As for a referendum, that will be time consuming and costly, and if the People decide against neutrality, then it is off the table. What this does show is that Zelenskyy is showing the world that he is willing to discuss options, and for those who don’t quite get it, to show them the implications and consequences of such decisions as neutrality and what it would mean for the future of Ukraine.

Who is best placed to advise on this crisis? Analysts that have studied Russia and the Eastern Bloc for decades, or ministers who have held their positions for a few years will little specialist knowledge? I would go for the experts who have studied Russian politics for decades rather than take the advice of a career politician. There is a small window to take Russia down while they are regrouping, but to miss this small window of opportunity will lead to more deaths, further destruction, and allow Russia a little closer to the West. As it is, some countries can feel Russia breathing down their necks.

Ukraine is fighting for its independence but also to safeguard that of the West. Putin banked on NATO choosing not to get involved and to leave Ukraine helpless, and that is what he wants from the negotiations—to leave Ukraine isolated as easy prey. A neutrality agreement is exactly what Putin wants— the alternative is to keep defending Ukraine, but in order to do so they need more weapons and troops, and the West don’t want to ‘play’. The only way for Ukraine to remain a democratic and a free state is for the West to fully engage. Otherwise, generations will blame the West for failing to help a country when they needed it. The West failed to act in 2014 when Crimea was handed to Putin— how can they afford to make the same mistake with different players this time round?

Day 33 (28 March)

• The people in Mariupol are trapped as they are unable to be evacuated due to Russians attacking the corridors. Humanitarian aid is unable to enter what is left of the city as the world watches helplessly as these people suffer from starvation and dehydration, and who may die.

• Peace talks resume between Ukraine and Russia. Zelenskyy gave an interview last night which Russian outlets have blocked (under Kremlin orders). However, Putin refuses to meet Zelenskyy face-to-face.

• Russia continues to strengthen its presence in the Donbas region.

• Those who joined ‘The International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine’ have stated that there is little training, and that there are not enough weapons for them to use. Many volunteers are veterans from other countries who have had experience of military conflicts, and when they sign up they do so for the duration of the war.

• Proposals to send UN Peacekeeping forces to Ukraine have been rejected so far, but they should be sent to cities to prevent invasions at the very least who have been under threat, like Lviv and Odesa. That is the role of the Peacekeeping forces after all. How effective will they be after this conflict whatever the outcome, and who will want to volunteer?

• Zelenskyy states that sovereignty and territorial integrity are non-negotiable terms, but is willing to discuss a neutral status. How can you retain your sovereignty by being forced to adopt a neutral status?

• In his interview last night, Zelenskyy criticizes some of the other world leaders. Germany is sitting on the fence, the UK is providing assistance within NATO guidelines, and France has not provided military assistance but has offered lots of discussions instead.

• Turkey is hosting peace talks, but whose side is Turkey really on? They want EU membership so badly and it looks like they will do whatever it takes to convince others to let them in the club. Turkey, under President Erdogan seeks a ceasefire on humanitarian grounds, and to implement peace. All the right words, but this is more than a humanitarian issue, it is one of sovereignty and to defend the West from other Russian invasions.

• The names of 600 plus employees of the FSB (Russian Federal Security Service) who operate in Europe have been released by Ukraine’s Intelligence Directorate. There is the possibility of them being spies and sanctions against them should be imposed. https://gur.gov.ua/content/sotrudnyky-fsb-rossyy-uchastvuiushchye-v-prestupnoi-deiatelnosty-stranyahressora-na-terrytoryy-evropy.html

• The last remaining independent Russian media outlet, Novaya Gazeta has suspended their operations until the ‘special military operation’ is concluded. This is because they have had a second warning from the State’s watchdog, and could lose their licence. They participated in the Zelenskyy interview yesterday but did not publish it, and this is how the Kremlin censors the truth and controls information.

• Heineken has decided to end their operations in Russia, which goes beyond suspending sale and making investments. They have said it is no longer viable from a business perspective or sustainable and are selling up.

• An attack was made at a fuel depot in Lutsk. Reports say that a missile came from Belarus.

• Another fuel depot was attacked tonight in Rivne Oblast.

• There are reports that a male body was found tortured in Sumy.

• Roman Abramovich and Ukrainian peace negotiators who attended meetings in Kyiv earlier this month have reported that they were victims of a suspected attempt to poison them. They only ate chocolate and drank water, but three out of the four suffered symptoms that are consistent with the effects of poisoning. The story was withheld for the safety of those concerned and was only released today as all have recovered. It is suspected that it was carried to halt peace negotiations.

  

• Russia is imposing restrictions against the West, in particular countries that they state as unfriendly and will not issue visas, and will consider other ways to retaliate against the sanctions. Russia is already drafting legislation to take possession and to nationalize property from companies who have left Russia since they suspended their operations.