Honestly, what did the allies expect? They knew they were running low on ammunition at the start of 2023, and sought to create a coalition to produce more. In fact it has taken months for the allies to agree to production, where, and how much, while Ukraine has been using what ammunition it has been supplied with to defend itself.
Most expected the war to have ended, but that would have meant Ukraine having several occupied regions including Crimea. By now, the majority of the world accepts that Russia cannot occupy parts of Ukraine, and that they should have acted more harshly against Russia when Crimea was annexed in 2014.
While the allied countries don’t think they are at war, they are part of the war because they have promised to support Ukraine until the Russians withdraw from Ukraine. We can see that there is no quick solution—tanks have taken nearly a year to be agreed and delivered. The F-16s are another matter, and will take in total a year to arrive in Ukraine after training and delivery, when it was only agreed a couple of months ago that jets would be supplied against the fear of Russia considering it as escalation.
There has been another change in government, and this time in Slovakia that has always been a supporter of Ukrainian independence. That’s why it appears at odds that a pro-Russian (Fico) has been voted in. Can it be the result of more Russian propaganda or corruption in the voting system to ensure their man gets the win? Rico has stated that under his rule, Slovakia would not support Ukraine joining NATO (like Hungary), despite Stoltenberg claiming otherwise. He’ll be gone soon, and he isn’t strong, but who will want the job of being NATO Secretary General when the war in Ukraine will only intensify once the F-16s are delivered?
Polish elections are also not he horizon, and history tells us that outcomes of wars depend on the world leaders at the time. Given that there have been changes in the past 12 months from several countries already, it is important to take note of the political ambitions of the leaders in question and whether they are willing to sacrifice Ukraine for their moment of glory in politics.
Day 585 (1 Oct)
Robert Fico of the Smer-SSD party has won the parliamentary elections in Slovakia, but must form a coalition. Rico has stated that under him, Ukraine would not receive any further ammunition and would not be supported in their NATI application. Many say that Fico won’t make much of a difference as Slovakia has already supplied what weapons it was able to, but IMHO, it does matter, and he may turn out to be far worse than Orban of Hungary. With an anti-Ukraine position, Fico could create obstacles, and as ammunition is low across Europe, Slovakia may refuse to support the scheme to produce more in order to supply Ukraine. It is too early to say, but while the media says Slovakia is still a friend to Ukraine, that is hard to validate when the prime minister says they will stop supplying weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.
The Czech Republic is considering production of rifles ammunition, and armoured vehicles in Ukraine from the Sellier and Bellot company. They might get around logistical issues and other restrictions that have been placed in military aid the allies have supplied to Ukraine.
Belarus is attempting to organise a visit on 4 October of foreign diplomatic representatives, for them to visit the deported Ukrainian children under their alleged care. This is an attempt of propaganda to show that the children are being educated and rehabilitated, and Ukraine has requested any diplomats that have been invited to take part to refrain from doing so. It appears this is an attempt for Belarus to get international diplomats on board to avoid being accused of war crimes.
Switzerland has granted Fr.100 million to fund demanding equipment and operations in Ukraine. While Switzerland is firm on military aid in that they won't provide any due to their neutral status, they have been trying to support Ukraine with sanctions and humanitarian aid, but is that enough?
Traditionally, in Ukraine, Parliamentary elections would be held on 29 October, and presidential elections on 31 March 2024. Due to the war, the elections will not be possible, but there is pressure to hold them which would play into the hands of the Russians. Previously, other democratic countries did not hold elections and if there was to be an election, then there is bound to be some corruption at play—the very thing Ukraine needs to get a handle on and to eradicate.
In the media, Shapps stated that the UK was considering sending British troops to Ukraine to train soldiers there. Obviously that is a bad idea from the new Defence Minister, and this was shot down by Sunak the next day who said there were no plans to send British troops to Ukraine, even as trainers.
85 years ago, Chamberlain celebrated the fact that he permitted Germany to annex part of Czechoslovakia (without consulting the said country) in a bid to stop the impending war in in Chamberlain’s mind, he believed he had created ‘peace’. Appeasement by ceding land failed and Germany simply saw it as a way to get more without having to even fight. That is why Ukraine cannot and should not cede any land as part of a deal, as it will only lead to further wars.
Day 586 (2 Oct)
The first EU-Ukraine Foreign Ministers meeting took place in Kyiv to discuss Ukraine’s ascension to become a member of the EU. Predictions claim that Ukraine could become a member by 2030 if all the conditions are met, but in truth, this is just another meeting to discuss what we all know needs to be done. I’d music rather they discuss why Hungary is still in the EU when all they have done is block aid and create obstacles for Ukraine. They have recently stated that aid to Ukraine should be cut in half, and have consistently blocked EU aid packages to Ukraine.
“I am convening today the EU Foreign Ministers in Kyiv, for the first-ever meeting of all 27 Member States outside the EU.” (Josep Borrell )
Zelenskyy, at the meeting has called for for an additional sanctions against Russia. It's quite apparent that the sanctions have taken too long to have any effect, and Russia has been able to bypass some of the sanctions by using third parties. Therefore, EU sanctions need to be directed, not only Russia, but any third-party source that are assisting Russia.
Denmark is allocating $14 million to assist with the purchase of ammunition for Ukraine. This is part of a joint purchase scheme with the EU member states to help supply Ukraine with further ammunition. Denmark is also supporting the $21 billion Ukraine military support fund, that will run alongside the European Peace Facility over the next several years.
Bulgaria joins other EU countries and will ban any cars with a Russian license plate. Bans for trucks have been in place for several months already as EU countries begin to isolate, Russians from the rest of Europe.
Day 587 (3 Oct)
NATO officially states that the western allies are running low on ammunition. Admiral Rob Bauer (Chair of NATO military committee) told the Warsaw security forum that ‘ the bottom of the barrel is now visible’ and urged production of ammunition to move faster. This is because many countries have not invested in their defences and when it came to supplying weapons to Ukraine, many had warehouses that were half full.
Zelenskyy meets troops on the frontline in Kharkiv and discusses operations and the current situation with the soldiers. This is to boost morale, but Zelenskyy can only go out and do and Oliver, and ask for more weapons to anyone willing to listen.
Reports claim that Putin will announce he will run for president in 2024. In November, there will be a Russia exhibition, where, Putin's credentials and achievements will be presented, which some would claim is his propaganda pitch to the Russians.
Day 588 (4 Oct)
In the US, the Republican Speaker for the HoR, Kevin McCarthy lost a vote of no confidence, as he backtracked on the bill for aid for Ukraine. Political turmoil in the US is not good news for Ukraine who are dependent on US funds and weapons to push back the Russians. There might be suggestion of Russian interference again, because this outcome benefits Russia, and the US at war with itself means that aid to Ukraine would be stalled or halted, and that means Ukraine might be left defenceless.
The president of the Czech Republic Petr Pavel (former NATO leader) has stated that Europe needs to be less reliant on the US for weapons and security. The problem is trying to appease so many egos, and that is what Putin is counting on as there are often too many discussions and no actions.
Ukraine launched an operation on occupied Crimea, using special forces. All we know is that Russia had heavy losses, and the Ukrainian troops on the operation have already returned. Ukraine apparently has created a special cloaking technique, which prevents Russians using thermal cameras to detect them. The cloak apparently blocks, heat and radiation, so they cannot be detected.
Denmark has announced it will open an office in Mykolaiv to help with the reconstruction of the city. ‘We cannot wait until the war is over and start rebuilding Ukraine’. ( Lars Loekke, Danish Foreign Minster)
Reports claimed that the US is considering transferring confiscated Iranian weapons to Ukraine due to the shortage of weapons and equipment from the allies.
Armenia has ratified the ICC Rome, statute. This means that should Putin set foot in Armenia, they would be obliged to arrest him, as per the warrant issued by the ICC, accusing him of war crimes in Ukraine, notably the deportation of Ukrainian children.
"......trying to appease so many egos.......". Indeed!!