Over the past week during this war, there have been the usual attacks in Kyiv, and eastern and southern Ukraine, while NATO and other allied countries continue to pledge support for Ukraine.
Then, a Russian plane, allegedly with Ukrainian POWs crashed, but the incident is suspect. There was a planned prisoner swap on 24 January 2024, but it did not take place after the crash. Russia is blaming Ukraine, and Ukraine has only said that they were not given notice to provide safe airspace by the Russians when such exchanges take place. Later, Russia claimed they gave Ukraine 15 minutes notice, and further reports claim that top Russian officials were supposed to be on the plane but were told not to board minutes before take off.
Ukraine has requested an international investigation into the crash, but Russia denied it is necessary. Russia then requested an emergency UN Security Council meeting on the plane crash which was held on 26 January, that amounted to nothing. Later, the names of the reported POWs was released, however, some of those named had already been released which throws suspicion on whether the list is accurate or not. Allegedly 65 POWs were to be exchanged, but if they were on the plane, where are the bodies? Initial investigations say that the body count doesn’t correlate with the report, but it does seem to be another Russian propaganda story that is spinning out of control. The deaths of the flight crew have been confirmed, but nothing else has been officially reported.
What are the issues here? Russia can run a story that Ukraine launched a drone attack and killed its own people—that would then lead to people turning against Ukraine and discrediting the leadership. Perhaps it was a false flag incident for this purpose? What if Russia downed the plane and killed their own flight crew? The incident happened near the border of Belgorod and why doesn’t Russia want an independent investigation into the crash which could have been a genuine accident?
Hungary appear to have back the €50 billion aid package to Ukraine after a motion to suspend Hungary’s voting rights gathered momentum. However, Ukraine was hit with another corruption scandal and this time it involved a defence contract of $40 million to manufacture ammunition, and the money was embezzled in a scandal involving high ranking ministers. What is worse, is that was at the start of the war and no shells were ever delivered. How could such corruption carry on when Ukraine was being attacked? Now there are reports that men in some industries can pay a deferment fee to avoid being enlisted which won’t solve the mobilisation issue that Ukraine has.
Meanwhile, in Russia, things aren’t so good with women protesting that they want their men back as they need to be rested and rotated since they have been active since the start of the war. Russians are also suffering from reduced medical supplies as the military are given priority. There could be a humanitarian crisis in Russia and the world wouldn’t know about it, and sadly, there probably would be little sympathy too right now.
Day 699 (23 Jan)
Women in Russia have formed a group called ‘The Way Home’ where they are petitioning for the men in their family who have been fighting in the war to be discharged from their duties. They feel 2 years is enough, and they need to be rotated and given a rest, and some come back broken or not at all. Some are now sceptical of the ‘special military operation’ as it effectively a war, and trust in the government is silently waning.
Latvia’s Foreign Minister Krišjānis Kariņš, has stated:
To anyone who thinks that it is expensive to support Ukraine, my messages, simple – it will only get more expensive if Russia is not stopped.
The 18th meeting of the Contact Group on Ukraine’s Defence (Ramstein) was held. Here, the Netherlands joined the IT coalition, and more long range weapons will be provided. Estonia joins the British led operation Interflex to train Ukrainian soldiers. They are the 12th country to join the initiative.
Germany will also send 6 Sea King Mk41 military helicopters to Ukraine for the first time as agreed at the meeting, and will provide spare parts and training.
Belgium will supply Ukraine with F-16s in 2025 when they replace their fleet with F-35s. Can Ukraine wait that long?
Zelenskyy expresses his frustration at not having sufficient weapons to defend Ukraine. Ukraine has always said they are also fighting for the freedom of the Western world which is why they need the weapons, but the support is dependent on the world leader of each country. Some will always have their own political agendas, and that has been a stumbling block in previous wars too.
At least he acknowledges that not all NATO countries seek to see Russia defeated as several have pushed for a deal which involves ceding territory, and until all are united in the aim of defeating Russia, then support will continue to be limited from some countries. His office also stated that if Russia defeats Ukraine, then Russia other conflicts will be provoked.
It will be possible to defeat Russia, when all NATO countries are frank and really on the side of ending the war, and when they think about the security of society, and not their own political security.
Poland activates its air defence systems as a precaution as Russia continues to attack Ukraine near its borders.
The EU will use proceeds of the €300 billion in frozen assets to assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine. This generally means that the interest from the money will be used and put into a separate account for Ukraine.
The EU are preparing a 13th round of sanctions that will include aluminium. Sanctions only work when everyone agrees to them and when they include all items, and penalties for those who breach the sanctions. The EU has been too soft and that’s why sanctions failed.
Russia is considering a bill to confiscate property for those who discredit the Russian army.
Ukraine and Poland are discussing opening a further 4 border crossings. This would help with the transportation of military equipment from other countries and in the event of war would provide additional access for troops.
NATO signs a contract for $1.2 billion to purchase ammunition shells for their allies, who can use them for their own arsenals or to pass them to Ukraine if they wish to.
Lavrov of Russia stated in. UN Security Council meeting that peace deals backed by Ukraine and western allies were not possible. Effectively, he is saying no deal is possible unless Russia gets what it demands so at least they are consistent. What they want is Ukraine to surrender instead, and claim that the existence of Ukraine is dangerous for Ukrainians and that the Russian way of life will save them. The goals of the war are to kill any Ukrainians who wish to live in an independent country.
The Commander-in-Chief of the Norwegian army has said that they only have a few years to prepare a defence strategy to combat any attack from Russia. This is a view shared by others in the Netherlands, and Estonia, while the UK and Germany believe they have 5 -7 years to prepare.
Day 700 (24 Jan)
A Russian plane, the Ilyushin IL-76MD transport plane crashed in Belgorod near the Ukrainian border. Reports claimed that 65 Ukrainian POWs were onboard on their way for a planned prisoner swap. The crash happened in Yablonovo around 11 am, local time.
Since then, details have been sketchy with Russia pointing the finger at Ukraine, while Russia has refused an independent investigation into the crash. Some of the names of the alleged POWs onboard are the names of those who have already been released. The planned swap did not go ahead. Ukraine says they were not given notice to safeguard the airspace (as on previous occasions), while Russia claims it gave 15 minutes notice.
The Russian flight crew have been confirmed dead, and reports state that Russian military officials and political VIPS were due to board the plane but were turned away at the last minute by the FSB. The investigation continues but the 65 bodies do not appear to have been recovered yet.
In the UK, the head of the Army has suggested that Britain must train a citizen army in the wake of the Russian threat as the reserves would not be enough. General Sir Patrick Saunders highlighted the fact that other European countries were taking preventive measures already and that Britain must do the same, and as cuts to the Army have been made in recent times, should war break out, there would be insufficient trained personnel to fight.
Slovakia and Ukraine have signed a statement to strengthen bilateral relations, although this is not a security guarantee.
Turkey approved Sweden’s membership into NATO, and got the F-16s it wanted from the US. Hungary has yet to approve Sweden’s membership and NATO will officially have expanded again.
Russia is seeking to pass a law to confiscate property of those who discredit the Russian army or who are dissenters of the special military operation.
Day 701 (25 Jan)
Preparations for Ukraine’s EU ascension talks begin as the screening process officially begins in Belgium. This is a move to ensure that Ukrainian legislation will be compatible with EU laws.
The Bank of Cyprus has closed its operations in Russia, in Moscow and St Petersburg.
The Parliamentary assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) adopted a resolution , calling all European Parliament to recognise that the Russian abduction of Ukrainian children as an act of genocide.
Ukraine continues to target fuel depots in Russia, and the oil refinery in Tuapse, on the Black Sea was hit by a drone and caught fire.
Russian realtors are showing and selling apartments in occupied Mariupol via video links.
Day 702 (26 Jan)
All 27 members of the EU backed the €50 billion aid package to Ukraine that will cover several years. Hungary appears to have finally backed down as a vote to suspend their voting rights in the EU was due.
Ukraine and Denmark will hold a joint defence industry forum aimed at drone production.
In Kharkiv, Pushkin Street is renamed to Skovoroda, a Ukrainian philosopher as Ukraine severs ties with the Soviet past.
The Danish Foreign Minister visited Kyiv and had to go to a bomb shelter due to air raids.
A court has upheld a decision stating that those with religious beliefs do not have to take up arms during martial law.
The UN Security Council discussed the IL-76 crash as requested by Russia, but stated that they ‘…are not in a position to verify the reports or circumstances of the crash.’
Russian convicts who sign up as conscripts will no longer receive pardons or full pay for fighting in Ukraine.
Putin makes a visit Kaliningrad, which is the closest he has been to NATO territory since April 2023 when he was in Finland.
In Mykolaiv, Denmark has opened a new embassy office to assist with the reconstruction in the area.
The US is to deploy nuclear weapons to be stationed at a RAF base in Suffolk, in the UK due to the increasing threat that Russia poses. This is the first time since 2008 that nuclear arms will be stationed in the UK. This is not a good sign, and looks as if NATO is preparing to defend itself from a Russian attack.
While Austria has remained neutral it has an official pro-Ukrainian stance. However, a state TV correspondent Christian Wehrschütz has been justifying Putin’s actions and spreading Russian propaganda.
Day 703 (27 Jan)
The US are planning on moving nuclear weapons to be stationed in the UK for the first time in 15 years due to the Russian threat. Reports state that the RAF base in Suffolk is where they will be moved to.
Ukrainian MPs are working on a bill to permit deferment of military service for a monthly fee. I can’t see how this can work, except to stop people leaving Ukraine, but means they will have a register of available men in the country who will be paying not to fight.
Taiwan has been the largest exporter of metalworking equipment to Russia according to a report since the war began. Whether or not the companies were aware of this is not yet known as Taiwan has been a supporter of Ukraine.
Day 704 (28 Jan)
Avon has been criticised for still trading in Russia. The claim is that Avon helps people with jobs in Russia, but investigations show that Avon is manufacturing products and they are being shipped to other countries including Poland and Ukraine.
Lukashenko of Belarus arrived in St Petersburg for an official visit and to meet Putin. Men are being recruited in Belarus to fight for the Russian army, and that probably has been happening for a while, but recruitment is now being made public via open days for people to join military academies.
Massive fraud has been uncovered by the SBU, and this time it is $40 million worth of ammunition shells (100,000) that the Ukrainian government had ordered, but the funded were embezzled and no shells were ever delivered. This was 6 months into the war, and this corruption has cost thousands of lives. The funds have since been retrieved, but this happened back in 2022. The defence contract involved corruption from former and current high ranking officials in the Ministry of Defence, as well as the heads of the companies involved.