Russian General Surovikin Arrested For 24 June Mutiny
The Ukrainian counteroffensive continues slowly without the pledged weapons from the allies
We are witnessing a real time war where General Surovikin had gone missing since 24 June 2023 when Prigozhin led a mutiny into Russia from Ukraine. Reports claimed they had been working together and had planned the storming of Moscow, but the plans had been leaked and the FSB found out (this is Russia where you can trust no one) and the plans to stage a rebellion were hastily brought forward.
The plan had been to kidnap Shoigu (minister of defence) and Gerasimov (chief of staff), but the plan was leaked.
Surovikin, according to Moscow press, was arrested on 28 June 2023, and continues to be detained and questioned. The chances of him falling out of a window are high, or being poisoned somehow. Prigozhin is not safe either, despite the illusion of Lukashenko negotiating with him. I’m sure he knows there is a hit on him, and his only real chance of survival is for Ukraine to win and Russia to lose and retreat.
We also get to the nitty gritty of EU and NATO membership and the US has said that no concessions can be made for Ukrainian membership, and Estonia has said the same about EU membership. Both countries are strong allies, but have they failed to understand that these alliances provide securities that they can’t, and one must do what is necessary to stop the war, and to prevent it from happening again. If we take Hungary as an example, it is a member of NATO and the EU, and they have failed to abide by the rules of both alliances, thus it makes both alliances look like a joke when they can’t even reprimand rogue member states.
Everyone seems to be using Zelenskyy for some PR, Greta Thunberg and now Mike Pence to bolster his presidential campaign. While Zelenskyy welcomes positive PR, he should also avoid public meetings where the other party are seeking PR for themselves as is the case with Pence and Thunberg.
There have been more meetings on the reconstruction of Ukraine, more countries are releasing military aid packages and while Ukraine is grateful, it simply is not enough. I believe we are waiting for a time bomb to go off when one side will carry out an act that is considered escalation, and then NATO troops come in and deal with the stalemate situation. Ukraine bravely battles on, but they have a weary army (and that is what Russia wants) and the weapons promised are coming in drips and drabs which makes organising a counteroffensive difficult when you don’t know what equipment you may get.
As for Wagner in Belarus, this has prompted the bordering countries (Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine) to reinforce the borders with concerns that a Wagner attack could be carried out.
Day 491 (29 June)
Satellite images of an old army base in southern Belarus show signs of activity and is reported to be the new base for the Wagner group.
General Surovikin, the second in command of the Russian army after being replaced earlier this year has been arrested, and the only details known are that he is being held in one place and is being questioned about his role in the 24 June 2023, rebellion.
Great Thunberg visits Ukraine and meets with Zelenskyy to discuss the ecocide carried out by Russia. Thuberg arrived by train and was part of a delegation (Working gGroup on the Environmental Consequences of War) to discuss the ecological damage of the war in Ukraine. Zelenskyy’s office appeared to delete a post on this and Thunberg’s post was littered with negative comments accusing her of being a hypocrite, and how are they going to charge Russia when the ICC can’t even charge Putin with war crimes?
While the environment is important, if you asked the families of those who have been tortured, raped or murdered, then they will tell you that human lives come before the environment. Activism is not what Ukraine needs right. It needs weapons and NATO physical support to win and to end this war.
On the same day, former Vice-President Mike Pence also visited Kyiv and met with Zelenskyy. He is running for president of the USA, and this looks like a PR stunt to be frank.
In Poland, an ice hockey player (reported to be Maksim S. has been charged with spying for Russia, and is allegedly part of a spy ring of about 14 people. He is a Russian citizen and was arrested on 11 June 2023 in Silesia. Others are citizens of other countries that are in Eastern Europe, and they carried out the acts under the guise of being athletes.
Stoltenberg will remain as NATO Secretary General for another year to allow continuity as the war is still active. The man is weak as far as we can see and a change will not alter things as NATO is technically hands off.
Emergency drills have been carried out in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv in case of an disaster at the Zaporizhzjia nuclear power plant.
Kazakhstan has claimed that there have been attempts to recruit the command to join the Russian army.
The Wagner group are still actively recruiting in Russia, which means that Prigozhin is safe while he is useful.
Another European Council summit in Brussels (29-30 June), where the EU agreed (again) to support Ukraine and offer long-term security guarantees.
These commitments will be taken in full respect of the security and defence policy of certain member states, and taking into account the security and defence interest of all member states.
Day 492 (30 June)
Reports claim that in Zaporizhzhia, Russian officials are leaving the plant, and other forces appear to be gradually preparing to leave. Now this may look good and Grossi of the IAEA will be happy, but the flip side is that are they leaving because of an imminent attack? That seems to be the more feasible scenario, to get out before the ‘action’. Those who remain at the plant have been told to blame Ukraine for anything that happens.
Putin visits Dagestan to show all is well and even mingles with the crowds and is seen kissing people. Is this propaganda? Was it a Putin double as this is not how he usually behaves? He was there to chair a meeting on domestic tourism and crowds gathered to meet him with cheers. Whether they were paid or not who know?
This is the first anniversary of the liberation of Snake Island, which is a timely reminder that Ukraine can win the war and must win the war.
Reports claim that the Russian military gave the order for the destruction of the Kakhovka hydro electric plant.
Zelenskyy has signed a new law that increases the wages of soldiers and gives them additional benefits such as holiday.
Orban of Hungary has predictably moved to block another round of financial aid to Ukraine, complaining that too much money has been given to Ukraine. Hungary is one of the few western countries that had chosen not to provide any military aid to Ukraine.
Day 493 (1 July)
Zelenskyy has signed a new law meaning that corruption can lead to 15 years in prison. Corruption is a key issue that must be dealt with in order to gain EU membership, and so Ukraine needs to look as if they are doing whatever they can to halt the corruption within government bodies.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative has failed again as Russia continues to block the shipments in Turkish waters.
Zelenskyy visit the Rivne nuclear power plant to discuss security and safety issues
The OSCE supports the establishment of a special tribunal to try the crimes of aggression against Ukraine. The OSCE Parliamentary Assembly passed the resolution of the Ukrainian delegation and suggests that no Russian MPs who support the war to hold positions in this assembly until after the war. In addition, it was discussed how to suspend estate delegation should they violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of another country as Russia has done.
I've considered this a war since day one, with NATO hands off and Western PR very much "on". I pray for the good people of Ukraine who would agree, human lives should come before the environment.