Russia Launches Pre-Dawn Attacks On Ukraine
Ukraine doesn’t have enough weapons and that has been the message since day one, and there still isn’t enough. Each day, a country announces the delivery of a few more tanks or vehicles, but it isn’t enough and it’s taken a year to even get tanks.
The feeling I get is that certain countries want a peace deal, and that they are providing the bare minimum in terms of weapons that they can afford to without being criticised. Meanwhile, more Ukrainians die, either on the battlefield or as casualties of war as Russia launches pre-dawn attacks on residential areas when people are asleep.
Ukraine itself is dealing with corruption and investigating people who have fled Ukraine, and are divided on how to advise people in occupied regions. One office says to save yourself and take a Russian passport to avoid deportation, and another says don’t and wait for the Ukrainian soldiers to liberate you. Ideally, they should have left when the invasion began, but to take a Russian passport gives Putin what he wants and allows him to use it as propaganda, yet waiting for the Ukrainian army may take a while as they are busy on the frontlines in the Donbas. The situation is far from ideal, and the Fate of Ukraine seems to be in the hands of various politicians who are more concerned about their career prospects.
Day 430 (29 April)
Russia begins a new series of dawn missile attacks, targeting residential areas away from the frontline battles meaning that these areas will have limited defences.
A drone attacked an oil depot in Crimea which is thought to be Ukrainian. The Ukrainian army are taking out military outposts and depots as a defensive measure to prevent the Russians from attacking. The depot was in Kozacha Bay in Sevastopol, in occupied Crimea.
The owner (Prigozhin) of the Wagner group of mercenaries has given the Kremlin an ultimatum— provide more ammunition or they will leave Bakhmut. Apparently they ran out on 28 April, and Shoigu (Russian Ministry of Defence) was given 24 hours to respond. These requests have been made for several weeks now, and if the Wagner group does withdraw, then it leaves the Russian defence line open
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Day 431 (30 April)
BaykarTech, the company that manufactures Bayraktar drones has signed three agreements with two Ukrainian defence companies. The details have not been disclosed but will provide Ukraine with revenue and access to a new generation of weapons.
Petr Pavel, the President o the Czech Republic visited Dnipro, meeting the internally displaced persons and honoured the fallen victims of the war. Pavel, who was Chairman of the NATO Military Committee (from 2012-2015) has been a vocal supporter of Ukraine needing more defensive weapons. He has the tactical experience and background that many of the world leaders lack, and his opinions carry weight and others find they cannot object to his statements.
The Czech Republic and Ukraine will plan to jointly produce ammunition and F/A-259 fighter jets together.
The Russian ambassador in Spain (Yuri Klimento) was summoned to the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs to explain themselves, as the official Twitter account claimed that Spanish troops were fighting in Ukraine.
In Poland, a Russian embassy school was shutdown as Russia was told to vacate the premises. The school was on Polish land and the Russians have called this a ‘hostile’ act and have said they would respond in a ‘harsh’ manner.
Day 432 (1 May)
More pre-dawn missile and drone attacks have occurred in Ukraine, including Kyiv. Pavolhrad, near Dnipro was targeted as it was alleged to be a a site for the Ukrainian counteroffensive as it is 70 miles from the frontline. An industrial site was hit in the Zhytomyr region.
The Ukrainian counterattacks have begun, and in Bakhmut there are reports that Russians are leaving but that might be also because they have run out of ammunition and the Kremlin will not send supplies.
Putin has been advised not to attend the BRICS summit in person in South Africa and to attend via video link. This is due to the ICC arrest warrant, and South Africa does not wish to arrest Putin as their ties with Russia grow stronger. South Africa has tried to remain neutral, abstaining from UN resolution votes condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian government initially advised people in occupied regions to take a Russian passport to avoid deportation, but another office has now stated different advice. The advice is not to take Russian passport, to leave if possible and to wait for the Ukrainian army otherwise.