Russia continues to launch drone attacks against Ukraine, Ukraine waits for more tanks and F-16s from the allies, the UN does very little, Poland is now worried that Wagner troops will cross over the border in Belarus and disguise themselves as migrants, and Hungary repeats Russian propaganda and insists that peace talks should be on Russian terms!
Nothing much has changed over the past week in the public eye at least. Hopefully, there are plans behind the scenes that will help bring this war to an end, but that means Russia must be defeated and be forced to leave all occupied territories in Ukraine. While Ukraine fights to regain Bakhmut, we have to wonder about Crimea, Mariupol, Kharkiv, and other occupied areas and how long it will take with the weapons and manpower that Ukraine has?
Day 518 (26 July)
Moldova expels 45 Russian diplomatic staff (22 diplomats and 23 embassy staff), who must leave by 15 August 2023, due to ‘unfriendly actions’.
NATO will only offer additional surveillance in the Black Sea since Russia withdrew from the initiative. The ideal situation would have been for NATO vessels to assist in escorting the grain cargo vessels, but NATO just isn’t brave enough to do what is necessary. Other countries such as Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have offered their ports to help the grain deal to continue.
The International Olympic Committee has invited 203 countries to participate in the 2024 games next year in Paris. Russia and Belarus have been excluded, but details as to whether competitors may participate under the neutral flag have not been released.
The F-16 training has been delayed again, as the coalition have not agreed on several matters according to reports. The US is now saying that F-16s will not be supplied until spring 2024. Don’t they want the war to have ended by then?
Russia is building a drone factory with the aid of Iran, so it looks as if they are getting ready for further attacks, and are not seeking peace.
Hungary are still looking pro-Russian, claiming that, “The participation of Russians in the Olympics contribute to peace in Ukraine.” (Peter Szijarto, head of ministry of foreign affairs).
Day 519 (27 July)
Despite not being part of the ICC treaty, Biden has ordered the US government to hand over any evidence they have of alleged Russian war crimes to the ICC in The Hague. This is a u-turn on what was announced previously, but it is essential that all evidence is made available in order to hold the Russians to account for the alleged war crimes.
Olga Kharlan was disqualified at the World Fencing Championships for refusing the shake the hand of Russian Anna Smirnova (seen photographed with Russian soldiers). Russians and Belarusians were permitted to compete under a neutral flag, but this was always going to cause issues. Ukraine had already stated that Ukrainians would not shake the hands of Russians or Belarusians, but the International Fencing Federation (FIE) said this was part of the sport. Reports claimed that Smirnova provoked the situation with a sit in until Kharlan was disqualified. Kharlan had been told by the FIE president that a tap of the blades would be possible instead of a handshake, but was still disqualified.
This meant that Kharlan may not qualify for the Olympics next year, and in an exceptional move the next day, the IOC have granted her a place regardless of qualification. The FIE amended their regulations of a handshake to a salute within 48 hours, but have not yet ruled on Kharlan’s disqualification. On 28 July, FIE reinstated her allowing her to participate in the world championships in Italy.
Putin has offered free grain to African countries as a bribe as the Black Sea grain initiative will stall the transportation and export of grain. The UN (Guterres) criticised the move, and the African countries have said that export movement in Black Sea needs to continue for grain and fertilisers for the world.
Martial law and mobilisation has been extended for another 90 days in Ukraine until 15 November 2023.
Orban has been supporting Russia again, saying that peace talks should be led by Russia and be on their terms, claiming the West provoked the war. NATO and the EU, which are predominately western countries have not responded to the Hungarian accusations, and where Hungary is a member of both alliances that he claims are responsible for provoking Russia. Hungary should leave both alliances if that is how they feel, but they need the NATO security and they need the EU funds and freedom of movement. Time to remind Hungary of their obligations and what loyalty to the alliances means.
The Russians have abandoned Andriivka, a port on Bakhmut as Ukrainian troops continue a steady advance.
The Wagner group have been recruiting in Belarus, stating that the target will be to fight in Poland and Lithuania. As a result, Poland is doubling the size of their troops and both countries are considering closing their borders with Belarus.
Day 520 (28 July)
The UK has accidentally been sending information to Mali, an ally of Russia due to a typo that others have made. The US use .mil and a typo has meant some communications have been sent to .ml which is the domain for Mali. The US has also admitted they have done this in error and was highlighted by the person who received the emails, but the domain is now in the hands of the Mali government.
Romania is to increase its capacity for the transit of grain for Ukraine after the Russian withdrawal from the Black Sea grain initiative. Other countries in the region are also looking at ways to assist the export of grain out of Ukraine.
The POW that were killed at Olenivka was the result of a thermionic munition according to reports. The former head of the prison and an associate are being charged with abuse of POWs (by not giving them medical aid and allowing them to die from their injuries) by the Ukrainian Prosecutors General Office, however, like many cases so far they are in absentia.
Russia attacked Dnipro and the targets hit included a residential building and an SBU building (Ukrainian secret service). No deaths had been reported but around a dozen injuries.
In Rzeszów, 100 km from the Ukrainian border, NATO is setting up a repair and logistics centre for military equipment. One might ask why has it taken so long as it should have been set up as soon as weapons were delivered, but perhaps NATO had hoped the war would have been over by now?
Prigozhin was seen at the Russian-African Economic Forum in St Petersburg talking to African leaders. At least he is still alive, and appeared to be assuring the leaders that Wagner would be operating in Africa.
A Russian ammunition depot in Kozacha Bay in Crimea was blown up by Ukrainian saboteurs.
Poland will be doubling their troops in light of the increased threat from Belarus. They had three divisions and now there will be six.
Anti-Ukrainian propaganda is being spread in Russia with a new organisation headed by Viktor Medvedchuk (former Ukrainian MP accused of high treason) and Denis Zharkikh (a former Ukrainian journalist).
Day 521 (29 July)
Poland has warned that Wagner troops in Belarus could pose as migrants and cross the border into Poland and set up spy networks and ready an attack. Other concerns are that the troops will be used as border guards which would make them crossing the border at will easy and go undetected. The Suwalki gap borders Kaliningrad (Russian enclave), Lithuania and eastern Poland. The Prime Minister also stated that 16,000 attempts to cross the border from Belarus into Poland were made.
The Chongar Bridge that linked Kherson to Crimea has been destroyed by Ukrainian drones.
Zelenskyy visits Bakhmut, Chasiv War, kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Druzhikivka, Kostiantynivka, and Odesa and hands out awards to soldiers.
Representatives from UNESCO arrived in Odesa to assess the damage to 25 cultural heritage monuments due to the Russian attacks between 13-23 July 2023, and to record the consequences.
Ukraine appeals to international organisations to assist in the illegal trials of POWs from Mariupol in Rostov. Prisoner exchanges are being blocked and the prisoners are being refused treatment, so where is the ICRC? The Red Cross have little credibility after the head of the Belarusian Red Cross admitted to deporting Ukrainian children to Russia. Why did he admit it? Perhaps because he thinks he is immune to prosecution and what is the ICRC doing about the situation?
Day 522 (30 July)
Saudi Arabia will host a summit of peace talks for Ukraine, but without Russian participation. The talks will be held on 5-6 August 2023, and it is unlikely that China will participate. The aim is to coordinate support for the Ukrainian peace formula.
The African Union has called on Russia to participate in the Black Sea grain initiative despite being offered free grain by Putin. Azalea Assoumani said that the, ‘problems of grains and fertilisers concerns everyone.’
News of Ukraine surface drones has been released. They can travel up to 800km and if they are Ukrainian made, then there is no restriction on them being used on military targets inside of Russia.
Drones attacked Moscow in the Odintsovo area, and hit the ministry of economic development, ministry of industry and trade, and ministry of digital development, communications and mass media. Flights from nearby Vnukovo airport were suspended for a short period, in what Russia calls a terrorist attack
Ukrainian troops liberated Nadiia in Luhansk as Russians abandoned their posts.
Putin has claimed he doesn’t reject peace talks after speaking to African leaders at the summit in St Petersburg, but he claims it is hard to hold talks when the Ukrainina army is on the offensive. That’s his claim, but Ukraine is defending itself and is not attacking Russia.