Erdogan wins another term of authoritarian rule in Turkey, which means that while the country is in NATO and supports Ukraine, they also seek to maintain business ties with Russia.
Ukraine has stated that it is ready for a counteroffensive but have not implemented their plans. It does seem rather odd that they would declare this publicly, but perhaps as a warning to Russia that they are armed? In response, Russia has decided to launch missile strikes across Ukraine, and has targeted Kyiv in particular.
What has changed? The Ukrainians finally have some promise of F-16s and that is what has provoked the Kyiv attacks, even though Kyiv has always been a target. There are more international strains on relations with Russian diplomats being asked to leave, and those who hold foreign passports in Russia are being targeted as spies.
There is talk of peace, and no one wishes the war to extend outside what remains of Ukraine, but Russia does not seek peace, so how can you have peace talks with an aggressor who promises countries that return to the Soviet Union that Russia will give them nuclear weapons?
Day 458 (27 May)
Russia has decided to cap the number of Germans working in Russia since Germany has limited the number of Russian diplomats permitted in Germany. This means teachers in German schools, and those in the arts will not be allowed to stay in Russia, as Russia claims they are merely reacting to how Germany has chosen to act.
Andrei Kelin, the Russian ambassador in the UK has said that Russia has not even started to attack seriously, claiming that Russia had ‘enormous’ resources. He also stated that the West is escalating the war by providing Ukraine with weapons.
The length of the conflict depends on the efforts in escalation of war that has been undertaken by NATO countries, especially by the UK.
Russia submits an update on what their peace terms are. They include Ukraine not joining NATO or the EU, and that Ukraine must recognise the occupied regions as Russian, therefore, Ukraine must give Russia the territories that they have illegally occupied.
Ukraine replied that peace talks are only possible if Russia withdraws all of its troops from Ukraine, accepts that all former Soviet countries are sovereign, extradite all war criminals, accept a program of restitution to rebuild Ukraine, and a renunciation of Russian assets in favour of Ukraine.
Polls suggest that Ukrainians do not believe that there can be a reconciliation between Ukraine and Russia, and that many do not want talks with Russia, mainly because they know that they can’t be trusted to adhere to any agreements.
President Lula of Brazil was invited to Russia to attend the International Economic Forum in Saint Petersburg, but declined. He also reiterated that Brazil shares the belief with India, Indonesia, and China, that both sides of the conflict should pursue peace talks to end the war.
Austria remains neutral but will provide financing €2 million to help with the de-mining program.
Iran continues to supply arms to Russia via the sea and there is no entity that can stop them. Iran accuses Zelenskyy of propaganda when he said the supply of Shahed drones from Iran must stop after they were used in the most recent attacks.
Kuleba on his African tour has stated that Ukraine will open embassies in Rwanda and other African countries. This will help with business negotiations and is a symbol that Ukraine wishes to build ties with the countries on a global scale.
Day 459 (28 May)
Kyiv Day ~ The anniversary of the official founding of Kyiv. Russia unleashed another day of missile strikes against the city that were intercepted by the defence systems that the western allies had supplied.
Lavrov has stated that the West in providing F-16s is ‘unacceptable escalation’. We have been hearing the word ‘escalation’ since the start of the war, and Russia has claimed all Western aid is escalation, yet that it their interpretation. The rules of engagement in warfare are that it is permissible to grant aid to other countries but not to physically fight under the flag of another country or alliance, or for the weapons to be used on Russian territory.
Lukashenko has claimed that Russia will provide nuclear weapons to any country wishing to rejoin the ‘Union State’ of the Russian Federation and Belarus. The aim is to bring back the old USSR which is what Putin has been planning for decades.
NATO and Ukraine do not believe that China could act as an impartial mediator in peace talks as their plans appear to favour Russia.
The Wagner group have started to move out of Bakhmut and their troops have been replaced by Russian units. This process will take a week, and it is a blow to Ukraine who still control small parts of Bakhmut.
Cyril Ramaphosa, the South African president has said he would set up an investigation over the alleged arms sale to Russia. The allegation was made by the US who have presented evidence of cargo ships that switched of their trackers and that were bound for Russia.
A priest of the Russian orthodox church was filmed, preaching to Russian soldiers to kill Ukrainian claiming that they were ‘damaged Russians’. By using religion, the Kremlin is trying to convince soldiers that killing Ukrainians is the will of God. This is nothing more than propaganda and brainwashing people by using priests
.
The British Storm Shadow missiles have made a difference already as Ukraine states they have hit 100% of the targets. While this is good news for Ukraine, it also means Russia will seek retaliation agains the UK.
Day 460 (29 May)
Further attacks overnight were in Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Vinnytsya and Khmelnytskyi. Military airfields were targeted as well as residential buildings, and most of the missiles were intercepted, but some did damage buildings and some aircraft. This is a preemptive strike to prevent the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Putin signed a decree permitting occupied regions of Ukraine to hold elections in September 2023, and for the deportation of those who refuse to have a Russian passport.
Putin also signed into law a bill that denounced the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. This was to prevent any alliance from having an excessive amount of weapons after the Cold War, and was supposed to create a balance between NATO and Russia.
Lukashenko invited Kazakhstan to join the ‘union state’ of Russian Federation and Belarus. President Tokayev said, ‘I appreciated the joke, but I believe there is no need for it.’. I doubt there is a rush to join the union state.
Ukraine puts in a formal request to Germany for Taurus cruise missiles that can reach distances of of 400-500km.