Macron is a smart politician in terms of knowing how to get elected, but as he has reached the maximum terms he can serve, he can now ‘rule’ without worrying about pleasing the electorate or in fact anyone in Europe. I see him as a man who thinks and believes he has the ability to get things done through his charm and skilful negotiations, but he has shown over the past week that he also knows when that won’t work
When he said that there is consideration in sending troops to Ukraine, and there might be a reason to do so (as in humanitarian missions), he also knew that it would rile Putin as it would be seen as escalation. Many allied countries declared they are not planning to and will not send troops to Ukraine, knowing full well that they had to in order to prevent Putin sending messages through attacks or threats. After a few days, many countries have made a statement declaring they have no intention of sending troops to Ukraine, but Macron said that it isn’t off the table, and he was fully aware of what he was saying and the implications.
We have seen Ukrainian troops exhausted and there aren’t enough new conscripts to replace them on a rotation. If mobilisation had worked, then the new conscripts would be men who have come of age in the last couple of years. Instead, we hear tales of conscripts who are in their 40s, and one that collapsed as he has epilepsy. How can Ukraine suddenly produce a trained army to replace those who have served their agreed time? The answer is they can’t without external help and Macron is aware of that—we all are, but others are too afraid to say it in public.
Day 735 (28 Feb)
Zelenskyy and Kuleba attend the South East Europe Summit in Tirana, Albania. Albania announces it will open an embassy in Kyiv, and at the summit, Serbia and 10 other countries sign a declaration to support the Ukrainian peace plan. These include Ukrainian independence, territorial integrity (all occupied regions to be deoccupied including Crimea), and Ukraine to be recognised as a sovereign state (Russia doesn’t recognise this and claims Ukraine is part of Russia).
Zelenskyy and the Prime Minster of Albania (Edi Rama) sign a treaty of friendship and cooperation, that will help develop relations between trade, economy, technology, education, media, and culture. It will also encourage commercial contracts between public and private sector organisations within both countries.
Day 736 (29 Feb)
Putin gives his ‘State of the Nation’ speech that lasts for 2 hours where he warns the West against sending troops to fight in Ukraine, with a threat that Russian weapons could hit their territories. According to Putin, it is the West who are provoking Russia into a war, and Russia must now strengthen its defences along the Swedish and Finnish borders since they have joined NATO.
He claims that the special military operation is going to plan, and they must defend themselves as the West is trying to destroy Russia. He also claims that the Russian people are united in this war, but given that thousands risked imprisonment to line the streets for Navalny’s funeral, who can say if the masses support Putin or not as opponents are either imprisoned or killed.
They must understand that we two have weapons that can hit targets in their territory (in reference to Sarmat missiles). (Putin)
Despite the UK, US, and other countries stating they would not deploy troops to Ukraine, Macron has said nothing should be ruled out. The fact is that Ukraine has a ‘troops’ issue in that they don’t have sufficiently trained troops to fight against Russia long term, and the only alternative is to provide some troops. Canada has said they will send troops, but only to train Ukrainian soldiers. Other Baltic states such as Kaja Kallas, the PM for Estonia agree with Macron as the former Soviet states know that an invasion is highly probable and prevention is better than having to go to war.
Finland has lifted the restrictions on where the weapons they supply to Ukraine can be used. The Finnish Defence Minister made an announcement stating that Finnish provide weapons can be used on Russian soil. Hopefully, other countries will follow suit, and the fear was that it would lead to escalation but Ukraine has been made successful strikes on military targets in Russia and it has made a difference be disabling Russia,
Day 737 (1 Mar)
The Netherlands becomes the next country to sign a 10 year security deal with Ukraine with €2 billion in military aid offered during 2024. The question remains, if the war lasts longer than 10 years as it is possible, then what value do these security agreements have? They are only valid if there is a new attack by Russia, and that is assuming Russia will be defeated.
The funeral of Navalny was held in Moscow today with thousands of supporters coming out (at risk to themselves) to pay their respects. People chanted ‘Putin is a murderer’, but it is clear he had support and there are many who do not support Putin.
Russia has claimed it will hand over the bodies of POWs who died on the IL-76 plane crash on 24 January 2024, where Russia claims 65 Ukrainian POWs were on board.
Day 738 (2 Mar)
Ukrainian troops are still defending Chasiv Yar in Bakhmut, as the Russians deploy more troops to the area. It isa key settlement as it near Kostiantynivka, another Russian target.
More drone attacks on Odesa and Kharkiv which have lead to several deaths already.
A conscript has died at a Ukrainian military recruitment centre in Ternopil. The man was 49 years of age and had epilepsy. An investigation is taking place, but mobilisation and recruitment for the Ukrainian army has had a poor response, and this incident is not going to encourage people to enlist.
Around 45 members of the OSCE are invoking the Moscow Mechanism, which allows an expert mission to assist a country in relation to a particular humanitarian problem. In this instance, it is the arbitrary detention of Ukrainian civilians by Russian troops that needs to be investigated. Couldn’t they have done this sooner? Did they hope things would have been sorted out by now? The OSCE could see that the invasion was on the cards but failed to act, and then fled the scene when they could have been more proactive and at least have contacted other alliances for support and advice.
Kudos to the thousands of Russians who showed up for Navalny's funeral. Just imagine risking arrest because you attended the funeral of a politician you supported.