Putin To Increase Russian Army By 15%
Allegedly because of the threat of the increased NATO presence
Winter in Ukraine and Russia has impacted troops on both sides. There are denials of a stalemate, but both sides are suffering from low morale, no one willing to voluntarily sign up to fight, ammunition is being used up faster than it is being produced, and both sides are seeking equipment from other countries.
This seems a pitiful war, and I have watched over the past week and there has been little to report in terms of what is new. There have been more drone attacks in Ukraine, more people have been injured and some have died, Ukraine is asking for more weapons and is stamping out corruption in order to prepare for ascension talks to join the EU. On the Russian side, Putin is making it clear he is not going to back down with an increase of the spending to be used for military purposes, and to increase the number of troops for the army.
Some global entities are freezing Russia out, isolating them as a silent way of stating they do not approve of their actions and that they are not welcome. This is what the UN needs to do, but is unlikely to do so. I would like to be proved wrong and would be happy if it happened, and I believe this is the view of many people around the globe.
I read an account from a Ukrainian soldier on the frontline, and I believe it to be true because the soldier continues but tells it as it as. Conditions are tough, those in charge don’t have a strategic plan because they are defending themselves, and weapons are in short supply. New recruits are not trained properly with 3 weeks basic training and often their positions are leaked due to pro-Kremlin spies in the area leading to casualties and any counteroffensive measures being compromised. He also states that he understands why many Ukrainian men are dodging mobilisation, but that doesn’t help Ukraine win the war. His tale is not dissimilar to tales told in the trenches during WWI and WWII. WWI ended with the Treaty of Versailles because the German troops had been exhausted of manpower and supplies, but it was IMHO, Nazism grew from the defeat, and that’s why WWII began—it picked up where WWI had left off in the eyes of the Germans. Ukraine cannot sustain a battle agains Russia for 4 years and wait for them to sign a peace agreement that will probably be ignored. Russia has ignored and not honoured all the agreements it has signed in the past, and it is doubtful that this would change. I write this in shame because I have traces of Russian blood in my ancestry, but there are many brave Russians who know that this war is wrong and who have either been silenced or imprisoned.
The media hasn’t been focusing on the war of late because there is nothing new to report, and what we want to see is progress and not much is being made. Ukraine has accepted it will receive limited help for which they are grateful, but they need to halt corruption, train people to be in the army, and to manufacture their own ammunition and weapons. That’s a tall order as Russia have been planning this for the last 30 years and Ukraine has suddenly realised to win this battle and to save their independence they can’t rely on the allies alone.
The danger is that Russia could win if the allied forces continue to bicker amongst themselves and permit Hungary and Slovakia to dictate to the EU and NATO what they will and won’t do.
Day 645 (30 Nov)
The US Senate introduced a bill looking to confiscate the assets of Russian oligarchs, where the funds would be transferred to Ukraine’s reconstruction fund.
In Russia, there have been explosions at several tunnels on the railway network which are used by the military to transport military equipment. An explosion occurred in the Severomuysky tunnel (and the Baikal-Amur rail line), which is one of the longest tunnels. The tanker was a freight train and there were reported to have been no casualties. The Ukrainians said that the action was taken to disable the Russian infrastructure, which is near China and the Trans-Siberian railway in Buryatia.
In North Macedonia, an OSCE ministerial meeting was held and Lavrov of Russia had been invited. As a result, Ukraine was joined by other countries in walking out when he spoke. 36 countries called upon Russia to withdraw from Ukraine in order to end the war. Lavrov had to divert his plane via Skopje instead of flying through Bulgarian airspace as Maria Zakharova was on board (ICC arrest warrant) and the Bulgarians stated she was not to be on board if the plane flew through they airspace.
Fico of Slovakia has said that Slovakia should prepare for the end of the war and to look to normalising relations with Russia.
In a call with the Bulgarian PM, Denkov, Zelenskyy has said there will be no peace formula summit until 2024.
Day 646 (1 Dec)
Putin announced that the number of Russian troops would increase by 15%, due to increased NATO activity near the borders that he claims are a threat to Russia. The announcement also claimed the numbers would be from a recruitment drive rather than mobilisation, but who knows if that is true? Perhaps it is to stop men leaving Russia, but many would question whether they are defending Russia when there is no actual attack on the country?
The Assembly of the International Maritime Organisation has opted not to elect Russia onto the council for 2024 to 2025. This is another example of Russia being isolated in the international community.
Zelenskyy admits that the counteroffensive did not yield the expected results, due in part to traitors who informed the Russians as to where the Ukrainians troops were. When you look at the people who refuse to evacuate, one must consider them to be potential Kremlin spies, for why remain in a war zones where you can be killed at any time?
Zelenskyy says he is ready to hold Ukrainian elections next year, but his wife has said she doesn’t want him to run. Many Ukrainians don’t believe that it is worthwhile during wartime to hold elections, and opens up the country to more corruption and propaganda.
Day 647 (2 Dec)
Wives and relatives of Ukrainian soldiers held a protest in Kyiv’s Independence Square asking for the demobilisation of their husbands after 18 months. The problem is that Ukraine doesn’t appear to have sufficiently trained soldiers to replace them, and while there are rotations, demobilisation doesn’t seem to be an option of Ukraine is to defeat Russia.
Russia becomes isolated with the OSCE members walking out on Lavrov, the IMO(International Maritime Organisation) opting to omit Russia from the council and Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, where Russia has lost its seat on the board.
Day 648 (3 Dec)
Ukraine and Russia have agreed to three mutual visits for POW before the end of 2023. Russia had suspended prisoner exchanges recently, and the first of these visits was made on 30 November which has given Ukraine some access to their citizens.
Ukrainian saboteurs, allegedly, poisoned and killed Russian soldiers in Crimea by giving them poisoned food and vodka.
Day 649 (4 Dec)
Russia has confirmed that the Russian soldiers who killed unarmed Ukrainian POW have been killed in Donetsk. The soldiers were surrendering and were shot by the Russians. This has probably happened thousands of times already and possibly on both sides as Ukrainian soldiers have said taking POWs are difficult as there is nowhere to keep them if they are on the move.
The Bulgarian President, Rumen Radev has vetoed the agreement to supply Ukraine with 100 armoured vehicles. He is known to be pro-Russian but the PM, Denkov believes that Parliament can override the veto.
The EU and Ukraine have begun negations on security guarantees.
Stores circulate that former Ukrainian president Poroshenko had asked Orban of Hungary for a meeting, but the SBU denied Poroshenko permission to travel, citing that the visit would be used for propaganda purposes. Hungary claim that the visit was confirmed while Poroshenko’s representatives said he was planning to travel but not to Hungary.
The border blockade by the Polish has been on for a month now (and joined by Slovakia) over Polish companies unhappy that Ukrainians can undercut their prices. The problem is that this has hindered military and humanitarian supplies that are on civilian transporters, and thus is hindering Ukraine’s progress in the war. Goods are now taking 2 weeks to cross into Ukraine. One of the key protesters is from the Protection of Carriers is pro-Russian and opposes aid to Ukraine, and was set up in 2023. They want the visa free system that Ukraine uses to be abolished.
Day 650 (5 Dec)
Intelligence from the allies claim that Russia could attack NATO within 3 years, that is according to Polish intelligence, whereas Germany says 6-10 years is more likely.
Finland is to boost ammunition production in order to supply Ukraine with the ammunition they need.
Nepal has urged Russia to stop recruiting its citizens into the army. Some might be migrant workers that have been in Russia and have been forced to fight.
On this day in 1994, the Budapest Memorandum was signed by the US,UK and in Russia in exchange for Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons. The agreement was to give Ukraine security assurances if the country was attacked, but it is up to each country to honour that agreement. Obviously Russia has chosen not to.
Ukraine has targeted Russia military facilities in Crimea, including a marine oil terminal in order to damage Russian military infrastructure.
Iran and Russia sign an agreement to jointly overcome the Western sanctions imposed against them due to the war in Ukraine. That’s Iran basically admitting to supplying drones and weapons to Russia.
In Ukraine, soldiers who have been awarded the Hero of Ukraine award since the start of the war will be given state apartments, and relatives of those given the award posthumously will also receive apartments. 360 awards have been given out and 210 posthumously.
Zelensky was to address the US senators as they prepared to discuss the latest aid package to Ukraine, however, the address was cancelled by Zelenskyy.
Day 651 (6 Dec)
Putin has threatened Latvia over how Russians are treated in the country as minorities.
Putin has arrived in Abu Dhabi for the first leg of his Middle East trip. He will also visit Saudi Arabia. These countries are not party to the Rome Statute, and so he is safe from arrest after the ICC issued a warrant for his arrest.
Macron has invited Orban of Hungary to Paris for talks on how the EU can support Ukraine. With his track record for talks, one would consider this to be more of an arrogant attempt to be a peacemaker. He failed with Putin, refused to give Ukraine aid and kept stating he was still talking to Putin, then ended up giving aid to Ukraine months later when thousands had already died.