OPEC Limits Oil Production Which Boosts Russian Profits
Russia attacks Zaporizhzhia overnight and the next day
Saudi Arabia and Russia, as key members of OPEC have decided to limit the production of oil by up to 2 million barrels a day. This would push up the price of oil, as it would be in short supply, and boost profits for the OPEC members including Russia.
The claim for the move, according to Saudi Arabia is to stabilise the price, but some see this a counter measure to the proposed energy price cap that the EU will impose against Russia. This move means that the EU would have to agree on a higher price cap if oil is in short supply, which negates the purpose of the cap which was to reduce Russian profits, so that they could not fund the war.
This is becoming political, and in the US the mid-term elections are in a few weeks time, and the price of gas is always an issue for the voters. IMHO, the EU has said the right things to support Ukraine, but their actions have had little effect. It also goes to show how ineffective the alliance is as out of 27 countries, only 15 agreed with the price cap, and there are a couple of rogue countries that don’t agree with the policies and position of the EU Parliament.
Day 225 (6 October)
The first summit of the European Political Community (EPC) is held today in Prague, where Ukraine will be one of the main issues on the table. The UK and other non EU countries will attend, but it doesn’t mean that they will join the community. Macron had posed this as a stepping stone for countries wishing to join the EU, as a sop to Ukraine who has applied for EU and NATO membership. Being partners is not enough, as Russia keeps its seat on the UN Security Council. You simply cannot fight when the UN, EU, and NATO handcuff you with one hand, but claim they will support and protect you if they can.
The EPC has no structure or governance, and seems to be the name of a meeting for now. The next meeting is scheduled next year in about 6 months time in Moldova.
How it develops, no one knows yet, but Zelenskyy gave a video address:
Ukraine must win so that Russian tanks do not advance on Warsaw or again on Prague.
After the first missile strike today, when people came to clear the debris, Russia launched a second missile attack. Absolute mean the absolute evil.
We must admit the obvious: we are forced to deal with a state that does not want peace. Which response to all proposals for real peace with missile strikes provocation or artificial crises and ridicule.
With the news that OPEC has chosen to reduce oil production, thus pushing up the prices (in their words to stabilise them), countries that supported the EU energy cap might be wondering what plan the EU has to counter this. The move looks highly political, especially as Saudi Arabia assisted in the recent prisoner release of 10 foreign prisoners of war. Was this the quid pro quo? By Saudi Arabia agreeing to effectively push up the price of oil, thus bolstering Russian profits (so that they can fund the war in Ukraine) it has negated the sanctions imposed on Russia by other countries, and the plan to isolate Russia has effectively failed.
While countries wish to be less dependent on OPEC countries for oil, we approach winter where more energy will be used. However, Covid-19 lockdowns taught us that we didn’t need to use as much energy as we have done, and perhaps we need to learn from that and not be held hostage to Russia for energy?
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is on a 10 day tour of Africa to try and drum up support. Lavrov, his Russian counterpart made the same kind of visit in July. However, the African countries have been courted by the Russians for the last couple of decades, providing them with some cheap arms, which has bought they support. I fear that the Ukrainian tour that has received no publicity will struggle, but the door has been opened for trade partnerships.
In response to Ukraine formally applying to join NATO, Stoltenberg has thrown Zelenskyy a sop, and has announced that NATO will ‘step up support’ whatever that means. While Stoltenberg throws out statements of support, he has stated that Ukraine cannot be a NATO member at present. While we understand that as Ukraine is an area of conflict and would not be eligible, we all know that only NATO membership will stop the Russians returning to invade. other parts of Ukraine. NATO has been an abject failure, they were late in providing assistance and additional defence lines, and only realised several months later that Russia had breached the treaty they had in place only a couple of decades ago.
Zaporizhzhia has been in the news again. Russia missiles targeted residential buildings overnight, and again in the morning. People were killed (3 have been reported) and buried alive in the attack as people slept. It’s a case if they can’t occupy it, then they will destroy it. Emergency services are still on the scene, and Russia has stated they will not stop. What is the UN going to do when they are enabling this by allowing Russia to remain as a member of the UN, and with the power of a veto?
After failing to secure enough votes to dismiss Bohdan Lvov (the deputy chairman of the Supreme Court), Vsevolod Kniaziev, the Supreme Court Chairman stepped in and dismissed him after conformation that Lvov has a Russian passport. This move is important, as Ukraine must be seen to be addressing corruption in order to join NATO and the EU.
Putin has signed (an illegal) decree to declare that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plan is now Russian property. How will the IAEA deal with this now, as Grossi is due to visit Kyiv and Moscow, and the UN is supposed to be neutral and consider the safety of the plant and that of the staff that operate the plant?
Belarus has been aiding Russia again, and the international community has failed to take action against Belarus, bar a few random sanctions. This morning, missiles were fired into Khmelnytskyi in Ukraine, and they came from Belarus, which is being used by Russian troops as an extension of their own territory. Belarus has also been supplying ammunition to Russian troops.
The US will via USAID supply Ukraine with winter aid of $55 million to help them during the winter months of the war. The funds will help with repairs, heating, and transportation. German is already assisting with winter gear and uniforms.
In Kharkiv, Ukrainian police have exhumed 534 bodies which include 19 children in the liberated territories. There are 29 bodies where it is not been possible to establish what gender they were, from this we assume that the bodies were mutilated and tortured before death.
Swedish investigators have reported their suspicions on the leaks of Nord Stream one and two pipelines, and conclude that they happened due to detonations. Russia has not been invited to participate in the leak investigation, possibly because of the fear of evidence being removed. While the pipeline was inactive, it still contained gas, and Russia denies that it had any thing to do with the leaks. The Swedish team have stated that they have gathered some evidence at the scene and are examining it. Two leaks were located in the Swedish economic zone, and two other leaks were in the Danish zone.
On social media I see that Russian soldiers are fleeing; I realise from your reporting that this conflict is murky and today your focus is on the politics which I need to spend more time trying to grasp, however, one constant is Putin's need to win at any cost. Russia might not be financially burdened by this 'military operation', but what will Putin do to counteract defeat? 'Ukraine must win', but how far will allies be prepared to go and risk war?
I support President Zelensky's statement. Ukraine must win, otherwise maniac Putin will advance on Warsaw and Prague. European Heads of State need to be reminded of World War Two events!!