No Fighter Jet Coalition (Yet)
Austria, and Hungary announce they will not supply Ukraine with weapons
The tank coalition has taken the best part of 10 months to come together, but it seems that the allies appear miffed that the Ukrainians are asking for more already. They have agreed to tanks, and now they seem cheeky asking for fighter jets. Perhaps it’s a case of asking for too much too soon? Given that it takes so long for the allies to respond, if they do agree to fighter jets it will be at the end of 2023, when no one knows what stage the war will be at and how many more people will have died while waiting for a decision. Poland has stated it would send jets as far back as March 2022, but only with NATO approval and backing. It is the latter that is lacking as every country has stated they do not wish to provoke escalation, and fear fighter jets would do just that.
Words are one thing, but actions are another. Neutral Austria has always sympathised with Ukraine, but with a Hungarian alliance, both countries announced they would not send weapons to Ukraine. Austria we can accept, but Hungary is a member of NATO and the EU, where both alliances have stated support for Ukraine and expect their member countries to do the same. It is high time that Hungary is expelled from both if they wish to be neutral.
Iran aligns with the Russian banking system indicating their support to Russia, Greece says it cannot send Leopard 2 tanks as if would weaken their defences, and Brazil has also announced it would not send any ammunition of weapons to Ukraine, and stated that they call for Ukraine and Russia to negotiate.
Ukraine is launching a huge anti-corruption campaign and getting rid of any personnel who have broken rules or who have acted improperly. This is because Ukraine must be seen to address corruption as part of the conditions to join the EU. The summit will be held later this week and Ukraine must be prepared to deliver their results and findings.
Day 342 (31 January)
France and Australia are jointly planning to produce artillery 155-mm shells for Ukraine. The French Nexter group will create the shells, and Australian companies will supply the gunpowder for the shells.
The Danish Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, met with Zelenskyy in Ukraine on 30 January 2023, and visited Mykolaiv, where she met with wounded Ukrainian soldiers in hospital. Denmark pledged to help reconstruct Mykolaiv, and announced they would join the Black Sea Grain Initiative, by helping with the export of grain from Ukraine to other countries.
France has not said ‘no’ to fighter jets, but states that if any were supplied they cannot affect the French defences, Ukraine must make a formal request, the jets cannot lead to escalation, or ‘touch’ Russian soil.
Biden has said ‘no’ to F-16 fighter jets. The UK has also said no to fighter jets. the fear is escalation and both countries state it takes too long to train pilots and the equipment is very expensive to run and maintain. Both countries prefer to focus on providing military support in other areas, and the pleas to ‘protect the skies’ is rejected again, but at least Ukraine has some NASAMS now to counter missile attacks.
France will send an additional 12 Caesars to the 18 that have already been agreed.
Greece has said it cannot spare any Leopard 2 tanks as it will leave them defenceless. Greece is NATO and EU members and would not be defenceless if it was attacked. They should remember that the EU bailed them out of bankruptcy and that they aren’t in direct danger of being attacked by Russia.
Brazil announced it would not be sending any of its German made weapons to Ukraine, and called for Ukraine and Russia to hold negotiations.
The EU-Ukraine summit on 3 February will discuss further EU sanctions against Russia. Ukraine will also present to the EU the progress they have made with the recommendations made by the European Commission that are necessary in order for Ukraine to join the EU.
Ukraine has called upon other countries to form a ‘Marathon of Integrity’ to persuade the IOC to change its position on permitting Russian and Belarusian athletes to participate in the 2024 Olympics under a neutral flag. So far, Latvia has said ti would boycott the games if Russians and Belarusians competed in the games while the war was still on.
Human Rights Watch, has accused Ukraine of using landmines (and say they have evidence) in Izium in the areas which were temporarily occupied by Russia. I don’t see how this helps when there is no concrete evidence, especially as the use of mines is illegal and Ukraine won’t wish to kill its own people. Others claim this is propaganda to prevent allied countries from supplying further help to Ukraine. The group have called on Ukraine to investigate after the allegations were made, but how are they not creating a song and dance about Russia’s use of landmines that have actually killed soldiers, aid workers, and civilians?
Austria and Hungary held a joint press conference where the defence ministers announced they would not supply weapons to Ukraine. NATO and the EU must consider the actions of Hungary as a member is acting contrary to their declared principles.
The tank count so far appears to be about 140 made up of Challenger 2,M1 Abrams, and Leopard 2 tanks. To date, 12 countries are part of the tank coalition although not can be named publicly.
The President of Croatia, Zoran Milanović made a comment that control of Crimea will never return to Ukraine, and said that Zelenskyy was mad. He said,’ it is clear that Crimea will never again be part of Ukraine. Zoran Milanović also voiced his objections to supplying military aid to Ukraine, although the Croatian Prime Minister has offered support. He claims that supplying arms prolongs the war and doesn’t believe Russia can be defeated in a ‘conventional’ war as in one that is not nuclear. The comments seem pro-Russian and are of concern as Croatia is member of NATO and the EU, and like Hungary, these statements are contrary to the the principles of the alliances. He is also opposed to NATO expansion and Finland and Sweden joining the alliance. Ukraine has stated the comments were unacceptable, but what else can they do?
The German government is funding the delivery of 105 long-endurance drones, manufactured by Quantum Systems, GmbH to be used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
More potential corruption in Ukraine that has at least been unearthed. Oleksandr Liyev who was an official in the defence ministry in charge of arms procurement has been accused of being a Russian proxy and supporting Russia in Crimea.
Eurovision will be held in Liverpool in the UK as Ukraine cannot host the event this year.
Brazil will not send weapons to Ukraine, and states that the Russian invasion was a mistake and urges Ukraine and Russia to negotiate. Brazil claims it has not taken sides, but even neutral countries have to pick a side.
The Lithuanian president is a staunch supporter of Ukraine and has called upon NATO to provide Ukraine with all the weapons it needs and has requested. Gitanas NausÄ—da also stated that the allies feared crossing a red line, but those lines were drawn by Russia to try and control and prevent others from defending themselves against them.
The new Czech president Petr Pavel says the same, and that Ukraine should join NATO (after the war as you cannot join NATO while involved in a conflict), and that there should be ‘almost no limits’ on what weapons should be supplied to Ukraine.
A council member in Siversk has been arrested on suspicion of being pro-Russian and is suspected of passing information on Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut to the Russians. The Security Service also claim they provide coordinates of infrastructure in Donetsk that was later targeted and attacked. The battles in Donetsk are bloody, and these proxies are prolonging the war and betraying their country. That is one of the reasons why Donetsk has been at war sine 2014, as the corruption is deep and had been allowed to grow in the region.
Russia is apparently violating a nuclear arms agreement with the US by refusing to allow an inspection of the nuclear facilities. If the IAEA wish to inspect, will they deny them access?
Day 343 (1 February)
Poland is ready to train soldiers how to use the Leopard 2 tanks. The 10 weeks training can be condensed into 5 weeks as in intensive course according to the Polish.
Latvia has announced that it may boycott the Olympics if Russian and Belarusian athletes are permitted to compete if the war is still on.
The Austrian president, Alexander Van Der Bellen visited Kyiv and Bucha, yet while they state that the Russians have committed crimes against humanity, they will not supply weapons to aid Ukraine due to their neutral status.
The battles in Bakhmut continue as the Russian troops adapt and change their strategies. Ukrainian soldiers need advanced weapons and the stalling of the allies has given the Russians an advantage. History will look back at the same mistakes—the allied countries hesitating to provide weapons and doing so too late again. Will no one learn from history except for the Polish and Lithuanians?
The entire cabinet of the State Customs Service appear to have been fired. The acting head, Viacheslav Demchenko was dismissed for corruption, as well as the deputies, Oleksandr Shutsky, Ruslan Cherkassky, and Tetiana Kiriyenko
The former deputy minister of culture, and 6 (2 former Culture Ministry officials) others have been detained as suspects for more corruption. The allegation surround taking control of 14 buildings near Kyiv worth more than $1 million.
More corruption, where the president of Motor Sich (Viacheslav Bohuslaiev) was in league with Russian proxies in Donetsk, paying taxes to Russian proxies ($4 million) which were used to procure weapons
Raids have occurred in several homes of incumbent officials, and oligarchs under suspicion of corruption. Ihor Kolomoiskyi’s home was searched where it is believed products have been embezzled worth 40 billion UAH as well as tax evasion.
Vadim Stolar, a former MP who was in a pro-Russian party called ‘For Life’ left Ukraine a few days before the invasion and lived in France. His home was another that has been searched by the Security Services
The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, claimed that he would consider sending weapons to Ukraine, but then later said he would be prepared to act as a mediator if Ukraine, Russia and the US asked him to. Between him and Erdogan there is not much choice as both have shown support to Russia. I doubt the offer of considering weapons was genuine as what is there to consider if you wish to help as the war is a year old already? The item under consideration is the Iron Dome air defence system, and while humanitarian aid has been sent, weapons have not been supplied
Lithuania has put aside funds ($4 million) to train 1,600 Ukrainians soldiers in 2023.
A US weapons firm is offering to sell Reaper MQ-9 drones to Ukraine for $1, but the sting is the transportation, and maintenance costs.
What I'm reading is a lot of war fatigue, politics and hypocritical cowards. Brazil is a fool if they think "not picking a side" is really not picking Russia as a default. Clearly you side with Ukraine or Russia. There's no neutrality. If you don't condemn Russia, that's the same as siding with them, which is exactly what Brazil has now done. Nato reminds me of the dastardly duo. They're doing a half in, half out, no full commitment, no willingness to step up and do the "ugly" work. They are commited to Ukraine only to the extent that they don't have to make any sacrifices themselves. To categorically state Ukraine cannot win is nothing but lazy cop-out speak to soothe a guilty conscience. All of us can name battles won by the under dog against insurmounable odds.