No F-16 Jets Until After The Ukrainian Counteroffensive
Putin signs in a law stating those in occupied regions must be Russian citizens or be deported or imprisoned
As we approached 500 days of war, the situation is tense and all sides are reluctant to say too much publicly as the secret services of all the countries work around the clock to outsmart each other.
Russia is still trying to salvage their reputation after the Wagner group incident, and Prigozhin’s businesses have all folded, and were worth billions. His company Concord provided food to all the Russian military, and suddenly all the staff were made redundant. From the outside, it looks as if sanctions had worked and Putin could not afford to pay Prigozhin for the Wagner group and all his kickback businesses.
NATO are keeping Stoltenberg on until October 2024, but quite frankly, who would want his job? The alliance has also announced that no F-16s will be delivered to Ukraine until after the counteroffensive, and one would surely say that is counter productive? Despite the constant summits and talks, it seems the training of the pilots has been delayed due to an issue with one of the coalition countries! It makes you wonder how badly do some countries wish to aid Ukraine, or do they want to control the extent to which Ukraine can defend itself? Who knows when the counteroffensive is over, because no one really knew when it began?
In the occupied regions of Ukraine, Putin is pushing all citizens to either take Russian citizenship or risk losing all their property and being deported to Russia. He signed a new law making it compulsory for people to become Russian citizens or that they could face imprisonment or deportation. Hardly a way to ‘save’ the people from the Nazis as he keeps claiming.
Eight hurricane jets were found buried outside Kyiv from the Second World War. These were supplied to the Soviet Union by the US under the Lend-Lease scheme which meant after the war they would have to repay the US. What the Soviets did (Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union then) is dismantled the aircraft and then buried them so that they didn’t have to repay the US, claiming that they had been destroyed. Again, it shows how deceptive the Soviet Union was and the allies didn’t really ever trust them but had to help them to defeat Hitler. Who knows if the US will now charge for the jets that should have been repaid, and perhaps this might help with the release of Russia assets to rebuild Ukraine?
Day 494 (2 July)
The remains of 8 British Hawker Hurricane fighter jets were found outside Kyiv. They were part of the Lend-Lease scheme that the US provided for the allies. The USSR were obliged to repay the costs of any equipment that was intact after the war, hence the deliberate dismantling of the equipment and concealment. They were discovered after an unexploded bomb was found nearby and metal detectors uncovered the buried fighter jets.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive continues but little is reported as it is in real time, but reports say that the Antonivsky Bridge in Kherson has seen fierce fighting.
The Concord Group that supplied the Russia army with mainly rotten food has been disbanded, and was owned by Prigozhin. Thousands of staff were laid off without pay, and the contracts with the Kremlin had been worth 845 billion rubles ($9.6 billion) have been cancelled. Looks like sanctions have begun tot work but from the inside as the Kremlin can’t afford to pay the Wagner group and the associated businesses. Surely the Russian people can’t be so blind and stupid to see that Putin has been using government money to pay a mercenary pal (or former pal) for monetary gain?
Prigozhin’s other ventures such as the media companies and troll farms are also being shutdown, and what it exposes is how much money had been pumped into the invasion beforehand to promote the propaganda. That with the Wagner group meant that Prigozhin was making $20 billion from the Kremlin. By getting rid of him means that they can save money, or perhaps they can’t pay him and needed to get rid of him?
The Wagner group, after saying they were recruiting again last week have now suspended recruitment for a month, probably because the Kremlin contract and payment has to be negotiated.
There have been issues with the tank coalition and the jet coalition as expected when countries feel obliged to help and politics comes into it. The Leopard tank workshop that was supposed to have been built in Poland, to be jointly run with Germany has stalled as Warsaw and Berlin are still negotiating and discussing how the venture will run. The jet coalition has similar issues with the training of pilots being delayed to ‘miscalculations’, of what, no one quite knows? Money, or resources such as personnel?
A memorial to the 501 victims of Bucha was unveiled today at the entrance of the City Park.
Shell continues to trade with Russia despite stating they would withdraw from Russia. The company says there are long standing agreements that are difficult to stop, especially with LNG. Therefore, the company is making profits still and claim that they must do so in order deliver stable energy supplies.
Romania has expelled 11 Russian diplomats and 29 embassy staff after being told that the Russian embassy had to reduce its staff by 40 people. Russia says it will make an appropriate response. This comes as many alleged diplomats are spies being used as embassy staff so that they can move freely and to have diplomatic immunity. The request was made on 8 June 2023, and Russia had 30 days to comply with the request.
Water supplies are slowly being restored in regions affected by the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant being destroyed. In some regions the chlorine levels will be elevated, but will enable a stable water supply, other areas like Nikopol are operating at 30% capacity, and Kryvyi Rih is supplied on an hourly basis while replacement systems are being constructed.
Russians have deployed mobile crematoriums again, but this time for their own soldiers as well. These have been found in Melitopol and Berdyansk. Russian soldiers are being cremated without being identified or their deaths being logged. Why? Perhaps so that Russia can keep their death toll down, so they don’t have to pay out to the families and they be classed as missing in action or alleged to be POW? Either way, it is morally wrong to carry out these acts and is disrespectful to the families and also to the soldiers who died for a pointless war.
The MAKS air show has been cancelled this year probably due to security concerns and the fact that not many countries would attend as flights to Russia have been banned by the majority of the western countries. This would affect the Russian aerospace sector where the show would procure contracts and exports, but as sanctions against Russia tighten, the show would have been of little use for trading.
Day 495 (3 July)
Russian propaganda continues where Medvedev claims that Finland isn’t a country but was a result of a mistake made by Lenin! Historically, Finland was a transfer from Sweden and had never been a part of the USSR.
Austria, a neutral country has expressed a wish to join the European air defence Sky Shield initiative. This is in light of the Russian use of drones and missiles that may stray into their territory.
Russia has stated they do not see the need to renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative (which they have breached for months) due to expire on 17 July 2023, as they wanted sanctions lifted in exchange which has not happened. The EU is now considering lifting some sanctions to appease Russia to maintain the grain deal. This is a bad idea, as it shows that Russia can blackmail countries and what is the point of sanctions if concessions are made before the sanctions have made any real difference? The concession would be lift restrictions on a Russia bank to allow transactions, but what is the point then? The point was to stop Russia being able to trade and profit so that they could not finance the war, and once one concession is given, more will be demanded and expected.
The International Centre for the Prosecution of Russia’s Crime of Aggression against Ukraine has opened an office in The Hague. Operations have now formally begun to help establish a special tribunal to hold Russia to account for the alleged war crimes that have been committed.
Putin has signed in a law that states all citizens in occupied regions must become Russian citizens by a certain date, or they risk being imprisoned, deported or will lose the right to any property they have.
Zelenskyy has reiterated that Crimea is part of Ukraine, and that the war will not be over until Crimea is de-occupied. Therefore, any peace talks that involve negotiations over Crimea as suggested by third parties will not result in the end of the war.
We cannot imagine Ukraine without Crimea. And while Crimea is under Russian occupation, it means only one thing: the war is not over yet. (Zelenskyy).
Unilever has been designated as an international sponsor of war by Ukraine for failing to withdraw from Russia. According to reports, the company paid $50 million in tax to the Russian government, and the profits increased from $61 to $117 million. Unilever is contributing £579 million to the Russian economy each year as it continues to trade in Russia. The company defended itself by saying it was difficult to exit and to find a buyer without the company being taken over by Russia. They have opted to continue to trade with constraints.
We understand why there are calls for Unilever to the Russia.
We also want to be clear that we are not trying to protect or manage our business in Russia. However, for companies like Unilever, which have a significant physical presence in the country, exiting is not straightforward.
Day 496 (4 July)
The delivery of the F-16’s will not be made until after the Ukrainian counteroffensive has ended according to NATO (Lieutenant, Admiral, Rob,Bauer, Chairman of the military committee of NATO). That means that there is no set date for delivery which seems vague to allow for training and the red tape to be sorted out, while also stating that jets have been agreed to be sent to Ukraine, just no one knows when and how many. According the Ukraine, this will be autumn or winter, but they have no control over the delivery of the equipment and are at the mercy of the allied countries who control what is given and when.
The OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.) Parliamentary Assembly has officially recognised Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, and the Wagner group as a terrorist organisation. The Vancouver Declaration adopted by the assembly states that the Wagner group acted on behalf of the Russian government and can be characterised as terror, terroristic in nature and intent. This is the first time that the alliance has officially commented on the invasion of Ukraine.
Hungary has requested that the EU extend their sanctions exemption for Slovnaft (part of MOLB), its oil company to export Russian origin oil products to the Czech Republic. Most people would consider the request as a last resort if it had come from any other country but Hungary who has been trading with the Russians on the quiet and has Russian investment in the country.
Zelenskyy is to visit Bulgaria, and although no date has been set for security reasons, it is likely to be 6 July. This is in light of Bulgaria initiating a military aid package to Ukraine and at the invitation of the new government.
Claims that Russia is staging an act of provocation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant continue, this time with information that claims that explosive devices have been placed on the roofs of the third and fourth generators. This could claim a false flag situation to suggest the damage was done by Ukrainian shelling. Many staff have already left in advance which adds weight to the story that the Russians are planning some kind of incident. Such an incident would be damaging on a worldwide scale, and as we saw with the apparent Russian attack on Kakhovka, plans don’t always work out as expected.
Now the whole world must realise that common security depends entirely on global attention to the occupiers actions at the station. (Zelenskyy).
Day 497 (5 July)
There are possible cholera outbreaks in Kherson (Skadovsk and Henichesk), where in Russian occupied areas people have been secretly vaccinated against cholera. The ICRC has said they have not been able to access the east bank of the Dnipro River which is occupied by the Russians.
To replace the Wagner group, Russia is sending in Chechen militants and prisoners to the front line. This is cheaper for the Kremlin while they train other soldiers as Russia tries to avoid another mobilisation. Many men have already fled Russia for fears of another mobilisation and have begun new lives in neighbouring countries in order to survive.
General Surovkin, the commander in chief of Russian aerospace forces and deputy commander of Russian forces in Ukraine has not been seen since 24 June 2023. His disappearance has been noted while reports of his arrest have been circulated, the Kremlin has made no official statement. It is alleged that he conspired with Prigozhin to storm the Kremlin, but the plans were leaked and failed.
Just imagine Russian soldiers being cremated, without advising their families who will not be compensated for their loss because their loved ones are not officially dead, merely "missing" in order to keep the Russian toll numbers low.