NATO Rejections And Security Leaks
Over the Easter weekend there has been no signs of Russia looking to leave Ukraine or to stop missile attacks. There have been security leaks—information regarding Ukrainian defences, what the US has supplied and what they believe Ukraine needs, figures of the dead were released too, but were they fake or accurate? The silence meant that there was some truth in the leaks as the parties concerned tried to find out how it happened.
As Finland joined NATO is record time, Ukraine is pushing its campaign to be the 33rd member of NATO for we all know that is the only security guarantee worth having. The problem is that several of the high profile members (France, Germany and the US) have already publicly stated that they do not think Ukraine is ready to be a member, which basically means they would not support the application. The countries that do support Ukraine’s membership are the Baltic states and ones that were former USSR states—they know the dangers of being vulnerable to the Red Army.
Zelenskyy has stated that NATO needs Ukraine to be in NATO to secure Europe. I would have to disagree, because NATO doesn’t need Ukraine, but Ukraine needs NATO. It’s true that it Ukraine was taken by the Russians then it would open a potential gateway to Europe, but then again Belarus and Hungary are equally as vulnerable and not politically stable. Hungary may well be a member of the EU and NATO, but that doesn’t mean that they will abide by all the rules, for we have seen the country ignore the charters and guidelines of being a member over the past year.
Ukraine must be careful not to overplay their hand and to alienate their allies because several leaders have already lost their positions and much depends on the will of the people they represent. We have seen changes in the UK, Finnish, Italian and Czech Republic governments since the war began already.
In many ways, the traditional war tactics have already come out to play with the arrest of foreign journalists in Russia to be used as bargaining chips. Then we have China who claims to have the ear of Russia and who don’t want a war, yet they carry out military drills with Russia and send warning signals to Taiwan on a regular basis with drills near their waters. Other countries have chipped in with their views, where Brazil has said that Ukraine should give up Crimea for peace, and Macron who still stupidly believes that the war can end with peace talks.
Day 408 (7 April)
Evan Gerhkovich, a 31 year old American journalist for the Wall Street Journal was charged with spying in Russia after being arrested last week (30 March 2023) in Yekaterinburg. Russia claims he was carrying out illegal activities under US instructions on a defence enterprise. He will be remanded until 29 May 2023, and could face up to 20 years in prison.
The Brazilian President, Lula de Silva has said that Ukraine should consider giving up Crimea for peace. Ukraine doesn’t need this kind of mediation or advice, and Silva is due to make a visit to China next week for trade talks and also the situation in Ukraine.
Exports of grain to Poland from Ukraine with be suspended until at least July 2023 due to Polish protests. Hungary has now also stated that they will restrict Ukrainian grain imports with limits and by using higher tariffs. Hungary is hardly the neighbour you wish to have when they don’t support you when a country invades you land, and then they won’t help you financially by buying commodities to help the economic growth either.
A UK company, Mykines Corporation has allegedly exported $1.2 billion worth of electronics to Russia during the period where sanctions had been in place. It is likely that the company violated the sanctions and further investigations will take place.
Ukraine, try to negotiate a Muslim prisoner of war exchange for Ramadan, but Russia declined this offer.
Ukrainians, who have been deported to Russia, have been sent to remote regions, making it difficult for them to leave Russia, and also to force them to have Russian passports. Many of these people would be considered missing as they are untraceable.
Countries in Asia simply are not supporting the Ukrainian sanctions where it was reported that naphtha exports to Singapore from Russia have tripled this year. This means that western sanctions are having little effect if Russia still can sell to other countries, and by having an income they can continue financing the war.
At a NATO meeting in Vilnius, the US, Germany and Hungary have opposed the suggestion that Ukraine be offered a roadmap to NATO membership. This would essentially be a series of conditions they must meet to gain membership, and would be a signal that NATO has given them the key to the door. Ukraine fought back and made statements claiming that Ukraine needed to be in NATO in order for Europe to be secure. The problem is that corruption in Ukraine has been the consequence of the instability since it became independent, and was largely responsible for the Russians being able to invade Ukraine.
Ukraine has announced it can now resume electricity exports to the EU and Moldova. This was suspended after the missile attacks that damaged the energy infrastructure last year, and will provide Ukraine will essential income to help rebuild the economy and the country
.
In Kyiv, the city council has drawn up a draft decision as it seeks to terminate the land lease agreement with the Russian embassy in Ukraine. The lease was signed between Kyiv City Council and the Russian Embassy on 5 October 1999, for the land situated at 27 Povitroflotskyi Avenue.
Day 409 (8 April)
Russia has announced that members of the government are no longer permitted to leave the country without permission. The Prime Minister, Mikhail Mishustin will issue permits only for official trips, as there are fears that officials may defect with confidential information.
Twitter, under Elon Musk as removed restrictions on Russian government accounts and ones that promote propaganda. This move doesn’t help the curbing of disinformation and gives Putin and the Kremlin a worldwide platform to promote their agenda and narratives.
The Estonian Foreign Minister, Urmas Reinsalu has stated:
NATO is the only consistent security guarantee to Ukraine, and also for Europe, to avoid a new war of aggression against Ukraine by the Russian Federation.
The problem here is that the Baltic states are the ones who are supporting the Ukrainian membership, but it needs to be the US, France, Germany or the UK before others will follow suit. None of the bigger NATO countries have been as prolific in their statements and have made vague remarks that the door is always open if the country fulfils the criteria for membership.
It is the first anniversary of the Kramatorsk railway station attack where 61 people died as they tried to evacuate, and 100 were injured in the process. Russia had targeted the railways station as a civilian target to cause as much harm as possible.
Day 410 (9 April)
Russian propaganda has been appearing on social media, telling people that Ukraine isn’t necessary because it is not needed. Statements included the accusations that Kyiv is run by Nazis and that Russia doesn’t need Ukraine, nor do Ukrainians. Then why is Russia fighting so hard to control Ukraine?
Russia is running out of cannon fodder and is allegedly allowing students in military schools to graduate earlier (end of April) so that they can join the front line as soon as possible.
Zelenskyy reiterated the need for Ukraine to join NATO in a speech:
Only together with Ukraine will the alliance (NATO) guarantee real protection for Europe, from any encroachment on the life of peoples-on existing borders, and on the international order based on rules
Leaked military documents found their way onto social media, contained information about what weapons for have been supplied to Ukraine, and what the US knows about Russian plans (compromising the US intelligence in Russia), and what equipment they have. No one was sure if they were genuine, but they indicate that the US has concerns over what has been supplied, and it highlights the weaknesses in Ukrainian defences and also American reticence in supplying specific weapons.
The leak also included information claiming that the Wagner group was trying to purchase weapons from Turkey (the Washington Post cited documents they had gained access to). The Turkish government have not confirmed or denied these allegations.
Some of the documents were marked top-secret and, and those in the Pentagon have been quoted, as stating that the documents are genuine. However, some of them appear to have been altered and there have been over 100 documents that have been released onto social media.
These also include details of training being provided to Ukrainian troops and equipment that will be provided for a new offensive that many have speculated will commence shortly. The leak comes at a time when Ukraine has been warning sources not to discuss the counteroffensive in the media, and now they must change tactics in case other leaks (unpublished) have made their way into the hands of the Russians.
Latvia is building an additional 63.9 km of fencing with the state border with Belarus. This is an indication that they believe that Belarus is under Russian control and that war could break out through the rouse of a military drill near the border. Several countries have enhanced their border defences, including Poland and Finland. Finland is now considered an ‘unfriendly’ country since joining NATO, and Russia may respond to the NATO expansion in time.
Macron has stated that he doesn’t believe it is time for negotiations yet for Ukraine and Russia. To be frank, the man needs to stop giving his opinion and just support Ukraine as he claims he does rather than speaking to Putin and Jinping and thinking his charm will convince them to stop the war. He claims his visit was to ‘consolidate common approaches to policy’ which means he thinks he can get Jinping to agree with him, but China says one thing and then does another just like Putin. That’s what Communist regimes do—they are not accountable to anyone.
The Charlemagne International Award prize to be held in Aachen (24-26 May 2023) will be awarded to Zelenskyy and the people of Ukraine. Reports claim that Zelenskyy will attend in person, and Scholz will present the award with a speech.
Day 411 (10 April)
Overnight on Palm Sunday, Russia attacked Zaporizhzhia again, killing more civilians.
The Ukrainian tactics are to destroy Russian ammunition depots to prevent them from carrying out strikes. At least 6 strikes were made on Russian military targets, but how long can this continue?
In the leaked documents there were claims that Russians would get bonuses for destroying NATO tanks
Ukraine will join the annual meeting of the IMF and World Bank in Washington DC (10-16 April 2023).
In Mariupol, Russia has begun to demolish the railway station cutting off links to other parts of Ukraine.
Streets in Ukraine have been renamed during the war, and one in Berehove will be named after Vadym Sukharevsky, who was awarded the Gold Star for defending Ukraine
.
Ukraine is creating an international coalition to return deported orphans from Russia back to Ukraine. This is the war crime that the ICC has used to issue arrest warrants for Putin and Lvova-Belova.