NATO Offers Ukraine Security Guarantees
Ukraine did not get an invite to NATO membership from the summit
The NATO summit in Vilnius from 11-12 July 2023 has been the major event this week and the lead up to it as to whether Ukraine will be given membership speedily, or as anticipated, special security guarantees.
Zelenskyy even threatened to boycott the summit if Ukraine was not offered a clear path to membership, as several countries were concerned this might lead to escalation, but to be frank, everyone is scared of escalation and use this as an excuse not to agree to things.
We all know that NATO membership is the only security guarantee that will prevent Russia ever invading Ukraine again, while others don’t want Ukraine to have a clear path as it will drag NATO into the war.
NATO offered a shortened route to membership but not a fast track one. Ukraine will not need the follow the Membership Action Plan which can take years, the NATO-Ukraine Council was established, and guarantees of long term military assistance.
There were heated moments when Ben Wallace (UK defence secretary) said that Ukraine should show some gratitude, and while Zelenskyy asks for more weapons that the UK is not Amazon and can just ship them out on request.
How can the war be won? Weapons alone cannot end the war, and Ukraine does not have an endless supply of soldiers either, so one must consider where these soldiers will come from if Russia enlist soldiers from other satellite states.
While Ukrainian ties with NATO are the strongest they have ever been, that doesn’t say much as they were weak to non-existent beforehand, will Russia feel threatened? Russia already paints NATO as an anti-Russian entity, and when one deals with mad men like Putin, it is hard to predict how they will react—either in desperation or rashly because they have nothing left to lose.
During these two days of the summit, we have put to rest any doubts and ambiguities about whether Ukraine will be in NATO. It will. For the first time, not only do allies agree on this, but a significant majority in the alliance is vigorously pushing for it. (Zelenskyy 12 July 2023).
Day 501 (9 July) - Day 502 (10 July)
Ukraine requests help from Australia to assist with the Kakhovka dam damage, with engineers and specialists.
As the NATO summit is about to begin, reports claim that Germany and the US will not support an accelerated path for Ukraine to join the alliance. Germany claims that offering membership while the war in active could lead to a war between the eastern bloc and Russia.
A Royal Australian Air Force plane has been sent to Germany to protect the transfer of assistance to Ukraine.
Rheinmetall, a German company Will open a armoured vehicle manufacturing plant in Ukraine within the next three months. Training will be provided to Ukrainians on how to service the tanks and armoured vehicles.
Putin is said to have met with Prigozhin and other members of the Wagner group on 29 June 2023. The meeting according to Peskov, (Kremlin spokesman) lasted 3 hours and was attended by 35 people, where ‘further employment options’ were offered to them.
The Russian Orthodox Church is planning another POW exchange into Hungary without consulting Ukraine again. The previous captives were of Hungarian origin and this appears to be the case again.
Day 503 (11 July)
The NATO summit in Lithuania takes place, and given that Ukraine expects a guarantee that Ukraine will be a member after the war, Zelenskyy is said to only be wiling to attend if this is the case. A show of unity is essential to prove to Russia that the allies support Ukraine in the long term. The tag line is that Ukraine is closer to membership than it was in 2008.
The final outcome was that Ukraine has not been invited to become a member of NATO, but will be extended an invite when the allies agree that conditions are met. Kuleba has said:
All conditions are already in place for the invitation to be extended, while membership itself would take place when conditions allow.
When Ukraine was not given the clear map for membership, Zelenskyy hit back at NATO, saying it was absurd that Ukraine would not be given further information on membership. Zelenskyy later softened his words and stated his appreciation of the support of the allies. To be frank, most countries donated weapons either to save face, or because they want to avoid a war.
“It’s unprecedented and absurd when timeframe is not set neither for the invitation nor for Ukraine's membership.
It seems there is no readiness neither to invite Ukraine to Nato nor to make it a member of the alliance.
Uncertainty is weakness. And I will openly discuss this at the summit.”
In August, a F-16 training centre for pilots will be set up in Romania. A memorandum was signed with the 11 coalition members (denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Canada, Luxembourg, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden, and the UK) setting out the terms of the initiative.
The initiative will include training, Ukrainian, pilots, technicians and support staff, and may include training for other types of fighter jets.
The Nato-Ukraine Council, has been officially set up and held their first meeting, which means Ukraine now has the power and right to call meetings, thus bringing Ukraine closer to NATO. Decisions are made as equals, and this is part of a package designed to integrate Ukraine into NATO.
NATO will offer an assistance programme over several years to help Ukraine's transition to NATO training standards.
The Lithuanian president, Gitanas Nausėda suggests that a NATO base should be set up near the Russian border, despite the agreement in 1997 that NATO would not establish bases on the territories of the former eastern bloc countries.
Day 504 (12 July)
Zelenskyy reiterates that no Ukrainian land will ever be bargained for a peace deal, even a small village. This appears to be a response to the countries that have proposed peace plans that suggest Ukraine consider options such as relinquishing land for a peace deal. Also, it cannot be used as a bargaining chip for NATO membership.
I am confident there will be no betrayal from Biden and Schultz.
However, I must say that we will never exchange any status for any of our territories. Even if it is one village where one grandfather lives.
Overnight, Odesa and Kyiv had been targets for Russian missiles. The air defence systems had intercepted most of the missiles, but some did cause damage leaving a number of casualties.
The G7 offer a security package to Ukraine, although Zelenskyy would have preferred an invitation to join NATO. 15 other countries have joined the G7 in the declaration of the security package. This includes ensuring Ukraine can defend itself through providing weapons and security assistance, strengthening economic stability, and providing technical and financial support.
Stoltenberg said Ukraine will join Nato when allies agree and conditions are met, so there is no timeframe, and NATO was changing Kyiv’s pathway to join from a two-step process to a one-step process, which is not a fast track application, but a shorter one.
The European External Action Service (EEAS) is developing a draft plan that will lead to supporting Ukrainian security in the years to come, which will include arm, supplies, military exercises, intelligence, sharing, and developing further ties with European defence companies.
Day 505 (13 July)
Major General Ivan Popov of the Russian army has been relieved of his post after a recording of him stating that the situation on the front line was dismal, with a lack of weapons and high casualty rate. The recording was a private one that was made public on Telegram, and he was later accused of treason.
The Motherland monument on Kyiv will have the Soviet coat of arms replaced by a trident.
Lavrov of Russia claims that the transfer of F-16 jets is a nuclear threat, it appears as a justification for some kind of retaliation.
Russia has refused to renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative, and in response , the cowardly UN Secretary General (Guterres) has offered to lift sanctions on the Russian state owned Rosselkhozbank and reconnect them to the SWIFT banking system. Should this happen, it’s then a case of Russia getting what they demanded and opens the door for demanding other sanctions being lifted.
Kyiv city council is now banning the public display and demonstration of Russia language goods, and any Russian cultural services.
The International Olympic Committee Will not formally invite Russia or Belarus to the 2024 than pick games in Paris. Currently, they have not yet decided on whether Russian and Belarus seasons may compete as neutral athletes, but have stated they will make an announcement at an appropriate time.
The revised NATO membership program for Ukraine will be the adapted Annual National Program (ANP) instead of the MAP.
Day 506 (14 July)
The US has delivered cluster munitions to Ukraine already, and Ukraine has stated that these will only be used on military targets, therefore, there is little to no risk to civilians.
It is claimed that the Wagner group will no longer operate in Ukraine, while the battle in Bakhmut continues.
Reports claim that General Surovikin, the deputy commander of the Russian forces in Ukraine was a secret member of the Wagner group.
I may be wrong but I am extremely disappointed about the Cluster munitions. It's been my understanding those are illegal and it makes me wonder if it opens up Biden being charged with war crimes. Were they not made illegal??
Lavrov claiming justification for retaliation?? Since when have they needed justification? They pull all these justifications, which are just rationalizations, out of thin air to support their vileness!
Not sure I understand about the IOC either. I thought they'd previously stated that Russia and Belarus would be allowed to participate in the games. Now they will announce later about neutral athletes? Really thought they'd addressed that. I've mixed feelings about that but in all honestly, right now, it's of so little importance in the grand scheme of things.